In my next update I may issue a BGP Winter Weather Alert.

This is the setup that will bring the impactful winter storm this weekend. Additionally, the south and southeast will experience a devastating ice storm.  The low is an upper-level low that will bring warm moisture that will override the arctic air mass, brought in by the high-pressure system, that will fall as snow over Kentucky. 

 

Is something supposed to happen tomorrow? A light mix?

Just now, PP1 said:

Is something supposed to happen tomorrow? A light mix?

Mostly rain tomorrow. Maybe a light mix early.

This evening, I'll provide an update. I just examined the Canadian, Euro, and Euro AI models. Which I just subscribed to on a trial basis. 

The accumulation prediction is currently under question because the GFS is the outlier. For a significant portion of Kentucky, the most recent GFS shows virtually no snowfall. It has been going back and forth. As we get closer, it might align with the others.

 The remaining models are essentially all in favor of Kentucky experiencing significant snow accumulations.  

 

I'm going to wait and post an update in the morning. I want to see if what the 18z GFS is showing continues. It has brought the track back up to Kentucky, and the possible totals are coming in line with what the other models have been showing. 

 

 

Here's my update on possible accumulation totals. Confidence is growing that Kentucky and the surrounding area could receive snow totals we haven't seen in about a decade. If these totals come to pass, it may rival the January 1994 storm.  The GFS has come into good agreement with the Euro in the last couple of runs. 

First, the GEFS Ensemble shows the chances of receiving more than an inch. Please note that this model is an average of 21 different members. Some of which may show less chance of snow, so that is why you don't see 100 percent chances yet.

There are still some questions on where the exact track and the timing of the storm are. If it takes the track that the Euro is showing, then some icing may come into play for those along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. 

I fully expect winter storm watches to start going up soon.

 

This one shows the chances of getting more than 4 inches of snow.

 

 

Here is what the GFS is now showing for accumulations.

 

The Euro

We are in for some bitterly cold temperatures after this storm is over. It could be the beginning of February before we get any relief temperature-wise. 

 

This is what the 06z runs show for possible snow accumulations from both the Euro and GFS models. This is just a shot in time and not an official forecast. 

 

 

Here is the NKY forecast for this weekend.

The NWS-Louisville office has scheduled a conference call for 3 pm tomorrow about the storm. 

Just now, nWo said:

The NWS-Louisville office has scheduled a conference call for 3 pm tomorrow about the storm. 

Please keep us updated as soon as you get the info.

I'll start a new thread tomorrow when I make my first call for snow.

Check back for my update later today. I'm waiting for the 12z Euro to be released to see how it compares to the GFS. If it does ??