4 minutes ago, rjs4470 said:

I understand your thought process,  I would agree going for one makes more sense at least early in the game. Late in the game (and I would consider this late as you might only get 2 more possessions at that stage of the game), I think going for two is the right play. By going for two in this situation your giving yourself a better chance win the game. If you get the two, and your defense does the job, you're no worse than a tie game and in overtime even if you don't score again. If you miss the two, and the defense does their job, you can still win with a field goal. If you've made the two, even if you miss the field goal, you STILL have a shot in overtime.  If you instead kick it, you're still down one.  Then you HAVE to get at least a field goal or the game is over. There's no other option. Plus there's roughly a 10% chance you'll miss the extra point anyway and be in no better shape than going for two and failing. Going for two late in the game gives you a greater margin of error and thus a better chance of winning. 

Another way to look at it to look at the possible outcomes while considering you only have one or two possessions:

1. Go for Two and making it is a positive outcome vs going for one and making it.

2. Go for two and missing is the same as going for one and missing.

3. Go for two and making it is a positive outcome vs going for one and missing.

4. Going for one and making it is negative outcome vs going for two and making it.

5. Going for one and making it is an overall negative outcome (you're still behind) vs going for two and missing. 

Basically, there is no situation/scenario where going for 1 is the better option at a point in the game where you might only get another possession or two. Being tied late in the game is a way better situation to be in than being down a point, because a tie at the end means you still have overtime and a chance to win. Being down one, means you've lost and the game is over. The earlier in the game you are, the more the math tilts towards kicking as you've got more possible possessions ahead of you.

Very nice break down.

How did going for 2 work out for Baltimore in this game?

One thing I will add - I  would guess the 2 point conversion rate against quality teams, especially playoff teams, is lower than the 47% overall NFL rate. 

6 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Very nice break down.

How did going for 2 work out for Baltimore in this game?

One thing I will add - I  would guess the 2 point conversion rate against quality teams, especially playoff teams, is lower than the 47% overall NFL rate. 

It didn't. This is why these end-of-game scenarios are so fascinating to me and were my favorite part of game-day coaching. In the end, I think it comes down to giving yourself the best chance to win at the end. And late in the game, with only a few possessions left, against a very good offense, being in a tie game at that stage is the best option. There's no difference between being down one (if you make the kick) or two points (if you miss the kick or fail on the two-point try). There's only one outcome from that decision that's clearly better, and that's making a two-point conversion. And the only way to get that outcome is to go for two. 

On 1/20/2025 at 6:05 AM, Voice of Reason said:

Yes Andrews should have caught the ball. 

Does anyone else think the throw was a bad throw also? Low and behind Andrews forcing him to reach down and back pedal in those conditions?

I do.

22 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Here is another discussion you all can run me into the ground on, because I know I am in the minority. Factor not being talked about enough in the loss - Harbaugh chasing points. As a general rule, I don't think a team should chase points before the fourth quarter, and even early in the fourth quarter I would have to consider the situation. But that's me and I know you all will likely disagree.

With about a minute and a half left in the THIRD quarter, down by 2 points Harbaugh went for 2 points after a TD. I absolutely would not have gone for 2 there. If he had kicked the extra point, the 2 point try to Andrews would not have even happened - unless Harbaugh wanted to go for the win. 

For me the question is this - do I think my team is going to score again? With more than a quarter left to play, there would have been zero doubt in my mind that Baltimore was going to score again. If so, why chase points? Why not kick the extra point? Too much football left to play and too much confidence that my team, the Ravens, was going to score at least once more, maybe twice more.

There you go - have at it.

Said the same thing when he went for it

My thoughts on that last play. Could the throw have technically been better? Yes. Should the ball have still been caught? Absolutely yes! 

I am watching this game again on the NFL Network, it is late in the 4th. ?

11 minutes ago, futurecoach said:

My thoughts on that last play. Could the throw have technically been better? Yes. Should the ball have still been caught? Absolutely yes! 

Not much better if any.  I just watched it about five more times, lol.  Considering he was nearly out of bounds I thought Lamar put the ball right where it needed to be.  It definitely should have been caught.