TP94 Power Ratings - (11-7-24)

[Tigerpride94]

Ratings use avg. margin of victory/loss applied to avg. rating of strength of schedule played. Out of state opponents are not included in the ratings. There is a cap of 40 points on margin for teams that have 40 point or less differential to prevent ratings increase by running up the score. When there is more than 40-point differential between teams the higher rated team is not penalized for keeping score smaller by substitution and running clock. This comes more into play during district contests where there can be a wide disparity in teams' ratings.

Starting next week, I'll do a pick'em contest between TP94, Calpreps, and Massey and post the results each week and see which does the best.

Class 6A:

Ryle			94.51
Trinity			93.99
Frederick Douglass			91.70
St. Xavier			90.48
Male			88.23
Manual			86.76
Bryan Station			78.21
Great Crossing			77.86
Madison Central			76.05
Ballard			68.05
Fern Creek			65.82
Bullitt East			64.63
North Hardin			63.49
George Rogers Clark			63.30
Henderson County			63.30
Oldham County			62.67
Simon Kenton			61.40
Meade County			55.67
McCracken County			55.64
Campbell County			54.13
Barren County			53.24
Tates Creek			48.54
Central Hardin			44.58
Lafayette			39.92
Pleasure Ridge Park			37.77
Paul Dunbar			31.28
Henry Clay			31.10
Daviess County			30.32
Eastern			28.84
Warren Central			19.10
Christian County			13.59
Southern			8.76

 

Class 5A:

Cooper			96.10
Highlands			92.11
Bowling Green			87.90
South Warren			82.39
Woodford County			80.39
Owensboro			76.59
Scott County			75.16
Pulaski County			72.36
South Oldham			70.21
Conner			67.79
Graves County			66.16
Madisonville N. Hopkins			65.41
Dixie Heights			58.76
Atherton			56.40
Apollo			56.04
Collins			53.50
Southwestern			52.49
Greenwood			50.25
North Laurel			45.16
South Laurel			41.13
Madison Southern			41.02
Grayson County			40.20
Anderson County			37.48
Montgomery County			35.65
Marshall County			35.46
North Bullitt			31.70
East Jessamine			30.64
Moore			29.73
Harlan County			29.31
Seneca			28.89
West Jessamine			28.72
Bullitt Central			28.15
Scott			26.19
Boone County			24.16
Butler			21.07
Fairdale			18.28
Muhlenberg County			17.28
Ohio County			-7.74
Iroquois			-11.46

 

Class 4A:

Boyle County			109.10
Paducah Tilghman			94.90
Franklin County			92.36
Ashland Blazer			86.60
Corbin			85.92
Covington Catholic			83.77
Johnson Central			78.99
North Oldham			71.16
Allen Co. Scottsville			61.17
Letcher Co. Central			59.15
Greenup County			59.08
Boyd County			58.03
Bardstown			57.06
Spencer County			54.34
Warren East			54.10
Mason County			50.74
Henry County			49.62
Russell County			48.01
John Hardin			47.54
Wayne County			47.52
Logan County			47.30
Taylor County			47.09
Hopkinsville			45.86
Whitley County			42.35
Western Hills			41.75
DeSales			41.69
Perry Co. Central			38.74
Lincoln County			38.36
Rowan County			27.43
Nelson County			26.07
Doss			23.76
Grant County			22.68
Valley			20.48
Jeffersontown			14.28
Western			10.68
Shelby County			7.30
Harrison County			4.83
Thomas Nelson			-2.24
Waggener			-4.44
Breckinridge County			-6.00
Calloway County			-6.41
Holmes			-7.92

 

Class 3A:

Christian Academy - Lou.			89.46
Central			78.90
Belfry			71.16
Lexington Catholic			68.30
Bell County			60.90
Hart County			59.75
Lloyd Memorial			56.13
Union County			55.74
Adair County			52.97
Rockcastle County			49.84
Glasgow			47.30
Russell			47.17
Lawrence County			45.99
Hancock County			44.10
Mercer County			44.04
Franklin Simpson			43.53
Garrard County			40.21
Elizabethtown			39.56
East Carter			38.48
Marion County			34.03
Clay County			33.98
Knox Central			33.47
McClean County			29.54
McCreary Central			27.95
West Carter			24.91
Estill County			23.23
Fleming County			21.11
Magoffin County			18.61
Powell County			18.00
Hopkins Co. Central			17.49
Larue County			17.08
Trigg County			16.21
Butler County			13.59
Bath County			12.38
Bourbon County			3.69
Webster County			1.14
Casey County			-0.98
Morgan County			-4.63
Lewis County			-7.12
Pendleton County			-13.37

 

Class 2A:

Owensboro Catholic			98.85
Lexington Christian Academy			85.86
Beechwood			72.69
Mayfield			66.32
Somerset			52.16
Bracken County			49.97
Murray			48.82
Breathitt County			42.44
Monroe County			42.20
Caldwell County			38.57
Prestonsburg			33.95
Crittenden County			33.48
Martin County			32.19
Fort Campbell			30.68
Leslie County			25.73
Metcalfe County			24.61
Shelby Valley			23.57
Betsy Lane			23.27
Owen County			23.16
Edmonson County			22.54
WEB. Dubois			22.25
Washington County			22.20
Walton Verona			17.28
Green County			16.30
Pike Co. Central			16.14
Clinton County			14.90
Danville			3.79
Knott Co. Central			3.50
Todd Co. Central			1.76
Jackson County			1.14
Carroll County			-0.79
Shawnee			-2.10
East Ridge			-4.01
Floyd Central			-4.28
Fort Knox			-10.93
Gallatin County			-13.16

 

Class 1A:

Pikeville			69.50
Raceland			69.38
Campbellsville			65.63
Sayre			65.32
Hazard			57.61
Newport Cen. Catholic			56.59
KY Country Day			51.50
Paris			49.28
Lou. Holy Cross			42.06
Bethlehem			40.70
Bishop Brossart			39.43
Williamsburg			35.16
Caverna			34.66
Ludlow			33.17
Newport			29.82
Russellville			28.62
Frankfort			27.19
Eminence			24.86
Paintsville			24.14
Nicholas County			17.05
Middlesboro			15.35
Bellevue			11.58
Cov. Holy Cross			9.18
Ballard Memorial			9.17
Fulton County			8.09
Fairview			-0.63
Harlan			-1.39
Pineville			-4.39
Lynn Camp			-8.34
Dayton			-11.17
Berea			-26.62
Trimble County			-27.11
Phelps			-29.11
Jenkins			-37.79

 

Top 20:

Boyle County			109.10
Owensboro Catholic			98.85
Cooper			96.10
Paducah Tilghman			94.90
Ryle			94.51
Trinity			93.99
Franklin County			92.36
Highlands			92.11
Frederick Douglass			91.70
St. Xavier			90.48
Christian Academy - Lou.			89.46
Male			88.23
Bowling Green			87.90
Manual			86.76
Ashland Blazer			86.60
Corbin			85.92
Lexington Christian Academy			85.86
Covington Catholic			83.77
South Warren			82.39
Woodford County			80.39

 

 

[TimeWillTell]

Still don't understand how Owensboro Catholic is #2. They got dominated by PT in a scrimmage and they are not beating Trinity or any big schools like FD or X. 

[Tigerpride94]

Top teams by scoring margin with no strength of schedule applied.

[Subway5024]

1 hour ago, TimeWillTell said:

Still don't understand how Owensboro Catholic is #2. They got dominated by PT in a scrimmage and they are not beating Trinity or any big schools like FD or X. 

I really don't think they were dominated!!!  

[Subway5024]

1 hour ago, TimeWillTell said:

Still don't understand how Owensboro Catholic is #2. They got dominated by PT in a scrimmage and they are not beating Trinity or any big schools like FD or X. 

Cal preps has OCath 28-26 over St X in both matchups.  But how accurate is that?

[TimeWillTell]

17 minutes ago, Subway5024 said:

Cal preps has OCath 28-26 over St X in both matchups.  But how accurate is that?

That's funny... I just used Calpreps and they Catholic winning by over 40 first 4 rounds of playoffs and winning to LCA or Beechwood by 2-3 TDs. I said this about a week ago and everyone said "shut up", "your not a OC fan." I'm not but I hope someone in town wins a title soon. 

As for Calpreps. It looks like they go by winning point margins. I find it hard to believe they beat St. X at St. X. Stranger things happen. 

 

[TimeWillTell]

Catholic barely beat Owensboro. At one time Owensboro was up 24-14 late in the 3rd, right? Final was 41-31 right? 

[TimeWillTell]

1 hour ago, Tigerpride94 said:

Top teams by scoring margin with no strength of schedule applied.

For whatever reason this wasn't showing up in the thread. I understand now. Helps me understand why. Thanks for this info. 

[Voice of Reason]

2 hours ago, Tigerpride94 said:

Top teams by scoring margin with no strength of schedule applied.

 

54 minutes ago, TimeWillTell said:

For whatever reason this wasn't showing up in the thread. I understand now. Helps me understand why. Thanks for this info. 

The flaw in putting too much weight on margin of victory exposed?

Beechwood 38 Bracken County 7

And that's why there are question marks about how good Owensboro Catholic is. Strength of schedule ok but Owensboro is the toughest opponent faced, no other high level opponent.

[Tigerpride94]

3 hours ago, TimeWillTell said:

Still don't understand how Owensboro Catholic is #2. They got dominated by PT in a scrimmage and they are not beating Trinity or any big schools like FD or X. 

If I take off the 40 pt cap for Paducah Tilghman it bumps their rating up to 98.44.

[Rebel]

I like the 40 point cap.  I know with Boyle when they hit 35 the subs start to come in and the starters go to the bench. 

[mcpapa]

3 hours ago, Rebel said:

I like the 40 point cap.  I know with Boyle when they hit 35 the subs start to come in and the starters go to the bench. 

Same here. Makes no sense penalizing teams for calling off the dogs and rewarding others for running it up unnecessarily. 

[snakesnot_2000]

I doubt OC is the number 2 team in the State of Kentucky. I would say PT beats them 10 out of 10 times. OC has played a fairly easy schedule in my opinion, that's not saying they are not good cause they are.

[DearToday]

10 minutes ago, snakesnot_2000 said:

I doubt OC is the number 2 team in the State of Kentucky. I would say PT beats them 10 out of 10 times. OC has played a fairly easy schedule in my opinion, that's not saying they are not good cause they are.

OC has played a tougher schedule than PT. 

[snakesnot_2000]

17 minutes ago, DearToday said:

OC has played a tougher schedule than PT. 

Bout the same. I stand by the statement, PT beats OC 10 out of 10 times. They have way more top tier athletes than OC has. That’s a fact.