1	Cooper	5A	6	9	-	0			9	1.06668	.50420	.54940	.71463
2	South Warren	5A	2	7	-	1			8	.91251	.60018	.54953	.69430
3	Woodford County	5A	5	7	-	1			8	.89375	.56051	.54257	.67176
4	South Oldham	5A	5	7	-	2			9	.77994	.64765	.53641	.66058
5	Graves County	5A	1	6	-	2			8	.70720	.66644	.58620	.65663
6	Highlands	5A	6	7	-	2			9	.74689	.58887	.59746	.64676
7	Bowling Green	5A	2	6	-	2			8	.80626	.43761	.58540	.61097
8	Scott County	5A	5	5	-	4			9	.57222	.69247	.53863	.60423
9	Conner	5A	6	6	-	3			9	.71667	.55981	.51989	.60274
10	Owensboro	5A	1	5	-	3			8	.64375	.59849	.55341	.60081
11	Atherton	5A	3	6	-	2			8	.68018	.63360	.45401	.59603
12	Madisonville-North Hopkins	5A	1	6	-	2			8	.71952	.47308	.57100	.58871
13	Greenwood	5A	2	5	-	3			8	.59695	.59443	.48478	.56242
14	Pulaski County	5A	8	5	-	3			8	.64375	.48951	.51149	.55009
15	Grayson County	5A	4	6	-	2			8	.71952	.40728	.49850	.54393
16	Southwestern	5A	8	4	-	4			8	.50000	.59935	.50461	.53616
17	Apollo	5A	1	3	-	5			8	.41251	.64610	.50798	.52291
18	South Laurel	5A	8	5	-	3			8	.59452	.39511	.55302	.51228
19	Collins	5A	5	4	-	4			8	.51875	.45010	.49375	.48722
20	Dixie Heights	5A	6	3	-	5			8	.37500	.57436	.50916	.48503
21	North Bullitt	5A	4	4	-	4			8	.50000	.46384	.48484	.48280
22	Marshall County	5A	1	3	-	5			8	.35868	.56993	.51227	.47870
23	North Laurel	5A	8	2	-	6			8	.25000	.64055	.53608	.47252
24	Moore	5A	4	4	-	4			8	.48368	.42835	.49295	.46710
25	Seneca	5A	4	4	-	4			8	.45720	.49807	.43117	.46369
26	East Jessamine	5A	7	4	-	4			8	.48368	.38139	.50811	.45521
27	Anderson County	5A	5	3	-	5			8	.33220	.48007	.56630	.45419
28	Montgomery County	5A	7	3	-	4			7	.39374	.40637	.50389	.43120
29	Madison Southern	5A	7	3	-	5			8	.39375	.46703	.42160	.42775
30	West Jessamine	5A	7	3	-	5			8	.31588	.48506	.43880	.41197
31	Boone County	5A	6	2	-	6			8	.26875	.45908	.49652	.40370
32	Scott	5A	6	2	-	6			8	.25000	.41724	.53574	.39426
33	Harlan County	5A	8	1	-	6			7	.14286	.53859	.47880	.38215
34	Fairdale	5A	3	2	-	5			7	.28571	.34881	.45888	.35975
35	Muhlenberg County	5A	1	1	-	7			8	.12500	.43753	.53745	.35812
36	Bullitt Central	5A	4	1	-	7			8	.09452	.51075	.44620	.34570
37	Butler	5A	3	1	-	7			8	.14375	.38877	.48088	.33065
38	Iroquois	5A	3	2	-	6			8	.19650	.32410	.47453	.32457
39	Ohio County	5A	2	0	-	8			8	.00000	.47156	.51375	.31917

So what I speculate we're looking at in terms of the fallout of last night's South Warren win over Bowling Green.

-As it stands, Bowling Green is looking at a trip to Owensboro in the second round, then hosting a game again in Round 3.  South Warren is looking at homefield through the first four rounds, and won't see Bowling Green in the third.  
-Only two of the teams from Districts 5 & 6 will advance to the third round, but three of them have enough of a cushion that it may not be possible for Bowling Green to catch them without them taking an unexpected loss.  The fourth - Highlands - I think there is a chance.
-Highlands has only one game left, a certain win against Scott.  Scott's record will hurt their RPI.
-Bowling Green has two games left - their win over Greenwood will help the RPI as their win percentage exceeds their current OWP.  The critical game is the game against St. X.  If the Purples win that, I would imagine the combination of the two wins will push them above Highlands.  With a loss, they definitely won't get past Highlands in RPI, and may fall behind even Scott County or even Conner.  
-If Bowling Green doesn't get past Highlands, then it means that a Bowling Green at Cooper state semifinal becomes extremely likely.  I would be very, very surprised if anyone from District 7 or District 8 were to push whoever makes it out of the District 5/6 grouping.  
-Bowling Green's best hope is to beat X, hopefully get past Highlands in RPI, and then have Highlands advance to the state semifinals (or whatever random combination of teams behind them in RPI it would take).  If that happens, at worst, they are likely facing a rematch with South Warren in the state semifinals.  
-Highlands is looking at one of the more difficult roads out there.  The project to open with Scott County, and then will tangle with whoever finishes higher in RPI, Woodford County or South Oldham.  Right now it is Woodford County, and they control their own destiny - win, and top seed is theirs. 

15 hours ago, futurecoach said:

Unless Scott County can somehow catch up to Wofford or South Oldham in the RPI. With that 3 way tie, Scott County would end up as the 3 seed. Which would mean they would travel to Highlands in round one, which would be a very interesting first round game. 

Although it is likely Scott Co. travels to Fort Thomas in round 1, there is 1 more scenario. Collins and South Oldham play this Friday. If Collins somehow wins, it goes 1) Woodford 2)Scott County 3) Collins 4) S. Oldham

As of right now, East Jessamine has higher RPI in 5A D7. Next week’s game against Montgomery County looms large as all teams are 1-1. Madison Southern beat East Jessamine and lost to Montgomery County, West Jessamine beat Montgomery County and lost to East Jessamine, and Montgomery County of course, beat Madison Southern and lost to West Jessamine. West Jessamine gets Madison Southern at home and Montgomery County has to travel to East Jessamine. Favorable set up for the Jessamine county teams next Friday. Having seen both teams play now, West is actually a true threat to Madison Southern if they can control their emotions some. Same for East Jessamine. They need to clean up tackling and harness their emotions and focus on the task at hand, district is definitely there for the taking, with at least a home playoff game. 

8 hours ago, DragonFire said:

So what I speculate we're looking at in terms of the fallout of last night's South Warren win over Bowling Green.

-As it stands, Bowling Green is looking at a trip to Owensboro in the second round, then hosting a game again in Round 3.  South Warren is looking at homefield through the first four rounds, and won't see Bowling Green in the third.  
-Only two of the teams from Districts 5 & 6 will advance to the third round, but three of them have enough of a cushion that it may not be possible for Bowling Green to catch them without them taking an unexpected loss.  The fourth - Highlands - I think there is a chance.
-Highlands has only one game left, a certain win against Scott.  Scott's record will hurt their RPI.
-Bowling Green has two games left - their win over Greenwood will help the RPI as their win percentage exceeds their current OWP.  The critical game is the game against St. X.  If the Purples win that, I would imagine the combination of the two wins will push them above Highlands.  With a loss, they definitely won't get past Highlands in RPI, and may fall behind even Scott County or even Conner.  
-If Bowling Green doesn't get past Highlands, then it means that a Bowling Green at Cooper state semifinal becomes extremely likely.  I would be very, very surprised if anyone from District 7 or District 8 were to push whoever makes it out of the District 5/6 grouping.  
-Bowling Green's best hope is to beat X, hopefully get past Highlands in RPI, and then have Highlands advance to the state semifinals (or whatever random combination of teams behind them in RPI it would take).  If that happens, at worst, they are likely facing a rematch with South Warren in the state semifinals.  
-Highlands is looking at one of the more difficult roads out there.  The project to open with Scott County, and then will tangle with whoever finishes higher in RPI, Woodford County or South Oldham.  Right now it is Woodford County, and they control their own destiny - win, and top seed is theirs. 

Great post. Here are the most likely state Semi final matchups based on current RPI as you mentioned

Bowling Green at Cooper

Highlands at South Warren. 
 

So it’s very possible we could get a state title game with two teams from the same district this year. Either Cooper vs Highlands or Bowling Green vs South Warren. 

On 10/19/2024 at 5:22 PM, DragonFire said:

So what I speculate we're looking at in terms of the fallout of last night's South Warren win over Bowling Green.

-As it stands, Bowling Green is looking at a trip to Owensboro in the second round, then hosting a game again in Round 3.  South Warren is looking at homefield through the first four rounds, and won't see Bowling Green in the third.  
-Only two of the teams from Districts 5 & 6 will advance to the third round, but three of them have enough of a cushion that it may not be possible for Bowling Green to catch them without them taking an unexpected loss.  The fourth - Highlands - I think there is a chance.
-Highlands has only one game left, a certain win against Scott.  Scott's record will hurt their RPI.
-Bowling Green has two games left - their win over Greenwood will help the RPI as their win percentage exceeds their current OWP.  The critical game is the game against St. X.  If the Purples win that, I would imagine the combination of the two wins will push them above Highlands.  With a loss, they definitely won't get past Highlands in RPI, and may fall behind even Scott County or even Conner.  
-If Bowling Green doesn't get past Highlands, then it means that a Bowling Green at Cooper state semifinal becomes extremely likely.  I would be very, very surprised if anyone from District 7 or District 8 were to push whoever makes it out of the District 5/6 grouping.  
-Bowling Green's best hope is to beat X, hopefully get past Highlands in RPI, and then have Highlands advance to the state semifinals (or whatever random combination of teams behind them in RPI it would take).  If that happens, at worst, they are likely facing a rematch with South Warren in the state semifinals.  
-Highlands is looking at one of the more difficult roads out there.  The project to open with Scott County, and then will tangle with whoever finishes higher in RPI, Woodford County or South Oldham.  Right now it is Woodford County, and they control their own destiny - win, and top seed is theirs. 

That is some detailed analysis, much appreciated.  So many whacky (But fun to discuss) possibilities to prepare for during the playoffs.  Which, in my opinion, is light years better than the old system. I believe there is even a possible scenario where two teams from the same district could play in the state final.  BG/S Warren & Highlands/Cooper. Thanks for the detailed report.

 

18 minutes ago, EyezOnThePrize said:

I believe there is even a possible scenario where two teams from the same district could play in the state final.  BG/S Warren & Highlands/Cooper.

Ideally that is the way it should be, one vs. two. 

5 minutes ago, theguru said:

Ideally that is the way it should be, one vs. two. 

Indeed!  

1	Cooper	5A	6	10	-	0			10	1.06001	.49310	.55236	.70929
2	South Warren	5A	2	8	-	1			9	.92223	.54334	.54950	.67780
3	Woodford County	5A	5	8	-	1			9	.90556	.54193	.53345	.66665
4	Graves County	5A	1	7	-	2			9	.73973	.60850	.56865	.64248
5	Highlands	5A	6	8	-	2			10	.77220	.56184	.58382	.64206
6	Bowling Green	5A	2	7	-	2			9	.82778	.48821	.58179	.63514
7	South Oldham	5A	5	7	-	3			10	.70195	.59813	.54050	.61718
8	Owensboro	5A	1	6	-	3			9	.68334	.60674	.54167	.61403
9	Conner	5A	6	7	-	3			10	.74501	.52799	.52601	.60335
10	Scott County	5A	5	5	-	4			9	.57222	.68375	.54273	.60241
11	Atherton	5A	3	7	-	2			9	.71571	.59399	.46513	.59794
12	Madisonville-North Hopkins	5A	1	6	-	3			9	.63957	.49404	.56686	.56682
13	Pulaski County	5A	8	6	-	3			9	.68334	.48304	.51479	.56267
14	Grayson County	5A	4	7	-	2			9	.73618	.41061	.47210	.54300
15	Greenwood	5A	2	5	-	4			9	.53062	.59358	.49642	.54240
16	Apollo	5A	1	4	-	5			9	.47778	.61182	.52286	.53822
17	Southwestern	5A	8	4	-	5			9	.44444	.62455	.47907	.51787
18	Collins	5A	5	5	-	4			9	.57222	.45370	.52443	.51640
19	South Laurel	5A	8	5	-	3			8	.59452	.39799	.53729	.50857
20	Dixie Heights	5A	6	3	-	6			9	.33333	.62539	.52022	.49162
21	Moore	5A	4	5	-	4			9	.54105	.45115	.46817	.48772
22	Seneca	5A	4	5	-	4			9	.51751	.47941	.44548	.48256
23	North Laurel	5A	8	3	-	6			9	.33333	.57035	.53388	.47645
24	North Bullitt	5A	4	4	-	5			9	.44444	.45072	.47919	.45706
25	Montgomery County	5A	7	4	-	4			8	.46952	.41311	.49374	.45704
26	Marshall County	5A	1	3	-	6			9	.31883	.52897	.53360	.45681
27	Madison Southern	5A	7	4	-	5			9	.46111	.45637	.44231	.45381
28	Anderson County	5A	5	3	-	6			9	.29529	.54710	.52949	.45368
29	East Jessamine	5A	7	4	-	5			9	.42994	.37127	.48680	.42646
30	Boone County	5A	6	2	-	7			9	.23889	.48673	.49496	.40246
31	West Jessamine	5A	7	3	-	6			9	.28078	.47434	.44316	.39724
32	Scott	5A	6	2	-	7			9	.22222	.44407	.53819	.39466
33	Muhlenberg County	5A	1	1	-	8			9	.11111	.48357	.53935	.36994
34	Fairdale	5A	3	2	-	6			8	.25000	.38692	.47468	.36533
35	Harlan County	5A	8	1	-	7			8	.12500	.46961	.49329	.35610
36	Butler	5A	3	2	-	7			9	.23889	.37762	.46689	.35585
37	Ohio County	5A	2	0	-	9			9	.00000	.52371	.51642	.33822
38	Bullitt Central	5A	4	1	-	8			9	.08402	.47220	.45918	.33243
39	Iroquois	5A	3	2	-	7			9	.17466	.31013	.45032	.30477

1	Cooper	5A	6	10	-	0			10	1.06001	.48378	.55117	.70568
2	South Warren	5A	2	9	-	1			10	.93000	.52587	.54850	.67411
3	Woodford County	5A	5	9	-	1			10	.93000	.50868	.52858	.66211
4	Graves County	5A	1	8	-	2			10	.78076	.61812	.57217	.66126
5	Bowling Green	5A	2	8	-	2			10	.86001	.49976	.58611	.65175
6	Owensboro	5A	1	7	-	3			10	.73000	.61816	.56487	.64132
7	Highlands	5A	6	8	-	2			10	.77220	.55883	.58471	.64127
8	South Oldham	5A	5	7	-	3			10	.70195	.58871	.53254	.61149
9	Conner	5A	6	7	-	3			10	.74501	.52492	.52329	.60146
10	Madisonville-North Hopkins	5A	1	7	-	3			10	.64137	.59503	.55917	.60049
11	Atherton	5A	3	8	-	2			10	.73109	.53667	.47590	.58648
12	Grayson County	5A	4	8	-	2			10	.73818	.50047	.47397	.57571
13	Scott County	5A	5	5	-	5			10	.51500	.65195	.54202	.57104
14	Pulaski County	5A	8	6	-	4			10	.61500	.52819	.53370	.56023
15	Apollo	5A	1	5	-	5			10	.54501	.57199	.54691	.55502
16	Southwestern	5A	8	5	-	5			10	.51500	.57651	.51187	.53559
17	Greenwood	5A	2	5	-	5			10	.47756	.60764	.50264	.53061
18	South Laurel	5A	8	6	-	3			9	.59202	.40572	.52863	.50780
19	North Laurel	5A	8	4	-	6			10	.38694	.60679	.52650	.50576
20	Moore	5A	4	6	-	4			10	.57389	.45545	.47029	.50136
21	Collins	5A	5	5	-	5			10	.51500	.45461	.51557	.49403
22	Dixie Heights	5A	6	3	-	7			10	.30000	.62838	.53410	.48516
23	North Bullitt	5A	4	5	-	5			10	.51500	.44400	.48699	.48175
24	Montgomery County	5A	7	5	-	4			9	.52846	.38741	.51010	.47359
25	Seneca	5A	4	5	-	5			10	.46576	.47227	.47516	.47086
26	Marshall County	5A	1	3	-	7			10	.28694	.55596	.54655	.45898
27	Madison Southern	5A	7	4	-	6			10	.41500	.45884	.44989	.44081
28	Anderson County	5A	5	3	-	7			10	.26576	.52659	.51306	.43124
29	East Jessamine	5A	7	4	-	6			10	.38694	.39309	.46866	.41361
30	Scott	5A	6	2	-	8			10	.20000	.48679	.53192	.39995
31	Boone County	5A	6	2	-	8			10	.21500	.49029	.50670	.39886
32	Muhlenberg County	5A	1	2	-	8			10	.15720	.50990	.53301	.39339
33	West Jessamine	5A	7	3	-	7			10	.25270	.48928	.43559	.39037
34	Harlan County	5A	8	1	-	8			9	.11111	.55320	.50389	.38368
35	Bullitt Central	5A	4	2	-	8			10	.16256	.50923	.44928	.36991
36	Fairdale	5A	3	2	-	7			9	.22222	.43738	.45379	.36700
37	Butler	5A	3	2	-	8			10	.21500	.40251	.46411	.35536
38	Ohio County	5A	2	0	-	10			10	.00000	.49184	.50724	.32432
39	Iroquois	5A	3	2	-	8			10	.15720	.27613	.44344	.28470

Likely region final matchups:

Atherton at Bowling Green
Grayson County at South Warren

Southwestern/Montgomery County at Cooper
Pulaski County at Woodford County/Highlands

Likely state semis:

Bowling Green/Woodford County at South Warren
Highlands/Bowling Green at Cooper

That Woodford County/Highlands game will determine a lot - possibly one of the most consequential games in the second round outside of 6A. If Woodford County wins, Bowling Green is going to have to hit the road to face Cooper.  If Highlands wins, we'll see some good old fashioned district battles in both semifinals.

There's an outside chance that Pulaski County could play spoiler.  They did play Woodford County tough back in mid September.  If they were to pull the upset, they'd face Cooper and Bowling Green and South Warren would be locked in.  To be frank, no one is going to prevent Bowling Green or South Warren from reaching the state semifinals, and I've lost faith that Scott County can go toe to toe with Cooper and pull an upset, and that is easily the only road block for Cooper before the state semifinals.

Thanks for doing all that @DragonFire!