Last night's UK loss to Florida leads to this thread. UK was leading by 3 with about 10 seconds left. Florida bringing the ball up court after rebounding a missed free throw. UK chose not to foul and a Florida player made a 3 pointer with 2 seconds left that sent the game to overtime. UK then lost in overtime. Should UK have fouled?

If you want to take the deep dive into the stats, here is the link for you to dig into:  https://cbbanalytics.com/insights/foul-up-three

There are multiple studies and statistical analysis in that link. But before you read, answer the poll. Choose your strategy. Post your thoughts below. Then dig in to the link if you want to see what the analysis says.

I have four options in the poll - Don't foul; Foul with 4 seconds or less to go; Foul with 8 seconds or less; Foul with 12 seconds or less.

Discuss and enjoy.

I said foul with 8 or less seconds. I’d say that is particularly the case if the other team has no timeouts. If you don’t foul by then you absolutely foul by 4 seconds. At the 4 second mark you’re all but guaranteed a win so long as you rebound a miss or manage to inbound successfully after two makes. For things to go wrong in those spots several things have to chain together. You’d have to:

-Accidentally foul during a three point attempt, which I think is the real fear that makes so many not do it. 
-Have them make two free throws, and your team makes a mistake such as not inbounding properly, or miss one or both free throws. And in either case, the other team still has to make a shot or get back to the line. 
-Have them make the first and miss the second, getting rebound. And again, they STILL HAVE TO MAKE A SHOT. 

Compared to not fouling where yes, the odds of them making a three are relatively low, but it’s still a single shot that can send it to overtime versus several things having to go wrong in the other scenario. I can’t believe it’s even a discussion. 
 

That study was interesting - basically supported the view I thought it would. 

100% foul around the four second mark.

You foul 100% of the time in this situation. 

It’s only done about 5% of the time. 

The argument in favor of do not foul is you will not lose the game in regulation. The odds are slightly higher you go to OT, but you will not lose. In 795 games where a team up by 3 with 12 seconds or less left, there was only 1 game that the team leading lost in regulation.

I think this is why so many coaches choose not to foul. They know they will not lose the game in regulation if they don't foul.

Just now, Voice of Reason said:

I think this is why so many coaches choose not to foul. They know they will not lose the game in regulation if they don't foul.

Ironically, I look at this as a loser's mentality. Stop being afraid to lose and WIN the game. 

19 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

Ironically, I look at this as a loser's mentality. Stop being afraid to lose and WIN the game. 

If I recall, the link referred to not fouling as coaches trying to control the outcome versus players controlling the outcome. If a coach chooses to foul, he has less control over the outcome of the game and trusts his players to make the plays needed to win by fouling. 

30 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

If I recall, the link referred to not fouling as coaches trying to control the outcome versus players controlling the outcome. If a coach chooses to foul, he has less control over the outcome of the game and trusts his players to make the plays needed to win by fouling. 

I do think if it's a strategy you're going to use you should practice it. But that's no different than any other scenario teams go over in practice. 

Always foul.  I voted with 12 seconds or less.

Too much has to happen if you foul.  The team down by 3 has to:

1) Hit the first free throw.
2) Hit the rim while missing the second free throw.
3) Rebound the missed second free throw.
4) Score a 2 or a 3 after securing said rebound.

20 minutes ago, Randy Parker said:

Always foul.  I voted with 12 seconds or less.

Too much has to happen if you foul.  The team down by 3 has to:

1) Hit the first free throw.
2) Hit the rim while missing the second free throw.
3) Rebound the missed second free throw.
4) Score a 2 or a 3 after securing said rebound.

If you foul that early, the rest of the game is a free throw shooting contest. I don't like fouling with that much time left because of that. Missing a free throw with 10 seconds left is the biggest reason UK lost that Florida game.

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

If you foul that early, the rest of the game is a free throw shooting contest. I don't like fouling with that much time left because of that. Missing a free throw with 10 seconds left is the biggest reason UK lost that Florida game.

8 sec under you definitely foul

above that I think a coach should’ve already made that decision before the game based on how good a 3 pt shooting team the other team is AND how good a defensive team his is, are we good enough to make them take a tough contested 3 or are we a bad defensive team that’s probably going to give up a good look and we hope they miss it, KY definitely falls into the latter category which is why it was a no brr that we should’ve fouled the other night

as for the missed ft being the main reason I disagree, I don’t think anyone in D-1 is shooting 100% from the line, Dilly is a kid so I tend to hold a 65 year old, hall of fame, 12 million dollar a year coach to a higher level of responsibility for making in game decisions than a 17 year old kid for missing a ft

9 minutes ago, 16thBBall Fan said:

8 sec under you definitely foul

above that I think a coach should’ve already made that decision before the game based on how good a 3 pt shooting team the other team is AND how good a defensive team his is, are we good enough to make them take a tough contested 3 or are we a bad defensive team that’s probably going to give up a good look and we hope they miss it, KY definitely falls into the latter category which is why it was a no brr that we should’ve fouled the other night

as for the missed ft being the main reason I disagree, I don’t think anyone in D-1 is shooting 100% from the line, Dilly is a kid so I tend to hold a 65 year old, hall of fame, 12 million dollar a year coach to a higher level of responsibility for making in game decisions than a 17 year old kid for missing a ft

If Dillingham makes the second free throw, UK wins. As close to a sure thing as you can get. None of foul or don't foul matters if UK is up 4. I am not blaming Dillingham for the loss. As you said, no one is 100% on free throws. My point on that is if Dillingham makes that free throw, UK wins.

The fact that free throws are missed, even by excellent free throw shooters, is an argument against fouling. The more time on the clock when a team fouls, the more free throw shooting matters. If a team fouls with 8 seconds left, the team in the lead will need to make free throws to secure the win in regulation. 

3 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

If Dillingham makes the second free throw, UK wins. As close to a sure thing as you can get. None of foul or don't foul matters if UK is up 4. I am not blaming Dillingham for the loss. As you said, no one is 100% on free throws. My point on that is if Dillingham makes that free throw, UK wins.

The fact that free throws are missed, even by excellent free throw shooters, is an argument against fouling. The more time on the clock when a team fouls, the more free throw shooting matters. If a team fouls with 8 seconds left, the team in the lead will need to make free throws to secure the win in regulation. 

Not blaming him?  You said in your post missing that ft was the biggest reason we lost!

2 hours ago, 16thBBall Fan said:

Not blaming him?  You said in your post missing that ft was the biggest reason we lost!

Yes, but coach, one player is NEVER responsible solely for a loss, right?

If Dillingham makes the second free throw, do you think UK wins?

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

Yes, but coach, one player is NEVER responsible solely for a loss, right?

If Dillingham makes the second free throw, do you think UK wins?

I would agree with that 100%!!

Would also agree with that 100%, unless Reed tries to block somebody’s 3 again!!LOL