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Change My Mind: The RPI System Punishes Teams For Playing Out-Of-State

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Nope, I can't change your mind because it is true.

Hopefully the KHSAA will look at this moving forward. 

Your mind will not be changed.  It’s simply true.

Agreed.  Little value in playing out-of-state. South Warren played Hendersonville (TN) in both 2021 & 2022.  Hendersonville was a Class 6A state semi-finalist in 2021 (beat us twice) but had a down year (for them) in 2022.  It appears South Warren received the same value for both years for RPI purposes. Also SW defeated a very good 10-1 Gibson Southern (IN) team and still received the same value if they had defeated a 0-10 team from Indiana. I do like the rewarding the 3rd and 4th round game home field advantage to the team with the higher RPI. Gives incentive to playing a tougher schedule even if you drop a couple of contests.

How should it be fixed? Everyone complains about this each year, but I've never read a great suggestion on how to correct it.

8 minutes ago, Jumper_Dad said:

How should it be fixed? Everyone complains about this each year, but I've never read a great suggestion on how to correct it.

Is it THAT hard to figure out the values for the out of state teams to make the RPI accurate? You need their win % and that of the teams they played. You could easily scrape Calpreps for that info.

Wouldn't it only undervalue out of state teams if they are over .500? All out of state team's record are calculated at .500, so an beating an 0 - 10 team counts the same as beating a 5 - 5 team, correct? It would benefit teams to play bad out of state teams?

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2 minutes ago, DragonFire said:

Is it THAT hard to figure out the values for the out of state teams to make the RPI accurate? You need their win % and that of the teams they played. You could easily scrape Calpreps for that info.

Ohio's Harbin system puts the onus on the member teams opting to play out of state competitors to provide info for the rankings of the out-of-state competitors, I believe. In other words, if Moeller plays Trinity, it's Moeller's job to obtain the correct info on Trinity's team and submit it to the OHSAA or else the game does not add any points to Moeller's Harbin ranking.

They basically require the following info to be provided for each out of state opponent:
1) Opponent's average male enrollment for the previous (2) school years. This enables the OHSAA's computer system to give a modified "class" multiplier to the opponent, similar to the way our RPI system ranks a 4A school playing a 2A school vs. a 4A school playing a 6A school.
2) Opponent's win/loss record.

The OHSAA has a computer formula that takes the data about each out-of-state opponent and then it applies the appropriate multipliers and spits out the appropriate points earned for playing those teams and the results of the games.

Here's an explanation of the OHSAA's ranking formula. It usually referred to as the "Harbin System," although it's actually a tweaked version of Jack Harbin's rating system.

9 minutes ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

Ohio's Harbin system puts the onus on the member teams opting to play out of state competitors to provide info for the rankings of the out-of-state competitors, I believe. In other words, if Moeller plays Trinity, it's Moeller's job to obtain the correct info on Trinity's team and submit it to the OHSAA or else the game does not add any points to Moeller's Harbin ranking.

They basically require the following info to be provided for each out of state opponent:
1) Opponent's average male enrollment for the previous (2) school years. This enables the OHSAA's computer system to give a modified "class" multiplier to the opponent, similar to the way our RPI system ranks a 4A school playing a 2A school vs. a 4A school playing a 6A school.
2) Opponent's win/loss record.

The OHSAA has a computer formula that takes the data about each out-of-state opponent and then it applies the appropriate multipliers and spits out the appropriate points earned for playing those teams and the results of the games.

Here's an explanation of the OHSAA's ranking formula. It usually referred to as the "Harbin System," although it's actually a tweaked version of Jack Harbin's rating system.

So essentially - no, it is not that hard to find a way to get them calculated properly.  In typical KHSAA fashion, they just simply decided they didn't care to be accurate.

19 minutes ago, colonel-fan said:

Wouldn't it only undervalue out of state teams if they are over .500? All out of state team's record are calculated at .500, so an beating an 0 - 10 team counts the same as beating a 5 - 5 team, correct? It would benefit teams to play bad out of state teams?

Correct - if someone really wanted to game the system and they were savvy enough, they could potentially make it to their benefit.  Of course, that assumes that the team does not want to challenge itself and find teams that are good enough that they might be over .500 in wins, and it would also assume that all they cared about was trying to get a team that would provide .500 value compared to something higher. 

To answer the question, it absolutely devalues out of state wins against  strong competition. Discourages teams from seeking out strong out of state opponents. 

1 hour ago, DragonFire said:

Is it THAT hard to figure out the values for the out of state teams to make the RPI accurate? You need their win % and that of the teams they played. You could easily scrape Calpreps for that info.

Still doesn't account for true quality of an opponent. A 6A team from Indy could have the same RPI as an 1A team from Southern Indiana. 

2 minutes ago, Jumper_Dad said:

Still doesn't account for true quality of an opponent. A 6A team from Indy could have the same RPI as an 1A team from Southern Indiana. 

There really isn't any way to accomplish a "true quality" deal, which is why I really didn't like when they swapped to the RPI system in the first place.  That the formula itself is flawed was secondary, but at the very least, they could easily get the proper values in for out of state teams.  If what you're alluding to is that the KHSAA model has the class modifier, I think that's a mistake to have in place as well.  Mayfield is a way better team than a great many 5A and 6A schools, but a 6A team is going to have that win downgraded thanks to the way they do the RPI. 

If the goal is really to have some sort of metric that takes into account the quality of opponents, then once again, just use Calpreps and be done with it.  Or heck, the Cantrall ratings.  But if they insist on using the RPI, drop the class modifiers and use the OWP and OOWP for all the teams regardless of state.

On 2/20/2023 at 1:42 PM, colonel-fan said:

To answer the question, it absolutely devalues out of state wins against  strong competition. Discourages teams from seeking out strong out of state opponents. 

But on the other hand it values weaker out of state competition though. The best team from Texas and the worse team from  Maine have the same RPI rating. So it actually helps the low level teams, who play bad teams it gives them a solid RPI boast.

On 2/20/2023 at 3:17 PM, DragonFire said:

There really isn't any way to accomplish a "true quality" deal, which is why I really didn't like when they swapped to the RPI system in the first place.  That the formula itself is flawed was secondary, but at the very least, they could easily get the proper values in for out of state teams.  If what you're alluding to is that the KHSAA model has the class modifier, I think that's a mistake to have in place as well.  Mayfield is a way better team than a great many 5A and 6A schools, but a 6A team is going to have that win downgraded thanks to the way they do the RPI. 

If the goal is really to have some sort of metric that takes into account the quality of opponents, then once again, just use Calpreps and be done with it.  Or heck, the Cantrall ratings.  But if they insist on using the RPI, drop the class modifiers and use the OWP and OOWP for all the teams regardless of state.

Put me in the use Calpreps and be done with it camp. 

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