Confidence is steadily increasing that an impactful winter event is likely Friday night into the day on Saturday. Travel will be greatly affected due to the heavy snow possible. At this time the highest snow accumulations will be east of I-65 with the heaviest from around the I-75 corridor eastward. Very cold temperatures are likely following the snow over the weekend. Now let's look at what the present time model guidance is showing. First, this is what the GFS is showing.

 

The period covered by the maps is from Friday at 7 pm EST/ 6 pm CST to 10 pm EST/ 9 pm CST Saturday.

The GFS has the snow starting to enter western Kentucky at the beginning of the period. Then around 1 AM EST, the snowfield should be covering most of Kentucky. Also at this time, some warm air will try to mix in and try to turn some of the snow into freezing rain. The snowfall rate will increase as the arctic air depends. Portions of the state east of I-75 will see snow showers into Saturday evening.

 

 

The NAM is not showing as much of the warm moist air as the GFS so the in is coming in with lighter snow accumulation totals.

 

 

 

The chance of snow accumulations of greater than 1 inch in 24 hours is over 50% in western Kentucky. It increases as we move eastward to 100% from just west of I-75 eastward.

 

The chance for accumulations greater than 4 inches is greatest from I-75 eastward. It starts a 60% and rises to over 90% in eastern Kentucky

 

 

 

Now let's show what each model guidance is showing for possible snow accumulations. 

 

GFS

 

NAM

 

Here is my thinking for a 1st call tonight. We are still about 48 hrs. away so I will be fine-tuning my forecast as we get closer.  Check back for my second call tomorrow evening. 

 

 

Thanks nWo and I am thinking this is it for snow this year. 

33 minutes ago, theguru said:

Thanks nWo and I am thinking this is it for snow this year. 

Was thinking today that I’ve been teaching for eighteen years and we’ve had SEC Tournament snow days twice. This could be a third.

6 minutes ago, gchs_uk9 said:

Was thinking today that I’ve been teaching for eighteen years and we’ve had SEC Tournament snow days twice. This could be a third.

One could only hope. ?

11 minutes ago, theguru said:

One could only hope. ?

I’d actually prefer it the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament if you’re taking requests @nWo!

56 minutes ago, theguru said:

Thanks nWo and I am thinking this is it for snow this year. 

 

 

The GFS is showing some possible snow the last weekend of March.

Really good stuff.  The Mrs. has a favorite broadcast meteorologist but she always wants to see your work on weeks like this.  Thanks for these.

It ain't over 'til it's over.

6 hours ago, Bluegrasscard said:

Really good stuff.  The Mrs. has a favorite broadcast meteorologist but she always wants to see your work on weeks like this.  Thanks for these.

I really appreciate the compliments. Thank you and her also. 

15 hours ago, theguru said:

Thanks nWo and I am thinking this is it for snow this year. 

Last year it snowed on April 20th and 21st.

Just now, brown4 said:

Last year it snowed on April 20th and 21st.

I know it is wishful thinking on my part. 

1 minute ago, brown4 said:

Last year it snowed on April 20th and 21st.

Thanks for reminding me. It sure did. I was in Las Vegas with 70° temps! ?

17 minutes ago, brown4 said:

Last year it snowed on April 20th and 21st.

I'm the guy that checks these updates and begs for snow, but April 20th and 21st? Get that the heck out of here. 

1 hour ago, ChickenWyngz said:

I'm the guy that checks these updates and begs for snow, but April 20th and 21st? Get that the heck out of here. 

Naw! let it snow!! I'll be in Vegas again this year. ☀️?

Just a quick update. The totals maybe going up especially in southeastern Kentucky. The low pressure system is deepening and may become a Bomb Cyclone after it passes to the southeast of Kentucky and goes up the east coast. More in the update later today.