Woodford County vs. Covington Catholic Predictions/Updates

[Brown]

Woodford has beaten Glasgow and Franklin County.  CovCath looks to have played the toughest schedule though.  Will the colonels shake up the 5A semifinals? Who wins and why?

[colonel-fan]

1 minute ago, Brown said:

Woodford has beaten Glasgow and Franklin County.  CovCath looks to have played the toughest schedule though.  Will the colonels shake up the 5A semifinals? Who wins and why?

Looks to have? It's not even debatable. Still Woodford is at home and has been dominating teams. Looking forward to this one.

[Voice of Reason]

• @gchs_uk9 posted this is the other thread.

FWIW, Calpreps rates their opponents like this:

1. Elder (CovCath - LOSS)
2. Ryle (CovCath)
3. Lexington Catholic (Cov Cath - LOSS)
4. Franklin County (WC)
5. Glasgow (WC)
6. Dixie Heights (CovCath)
7. Conner x 2 (CovCath)
8. Highlands x 2 (CovCath)
9. Cooper (CovCath)
10. Paul Dunbar (WC)
11. Collins (WC)
12. West Jessamine x 2 (WC)
13. Belfry (CovCath)
14. Tates Creek (WC)
15. Simon Kenton (WC)
16. Madison Southern x 2 (WC)
17. Boone County (CovCath)
18. Campbell County (WC)
19. East Jessamine (WC)

On the whole, Covington Catholic has played the tougher schedule. They've also lost to two of those good teams. But Woodford County has two of the three best wins among the two teams. I'm prepared to say Covington Catholic's schedule has been tougher but I'm not prepared to see wins over Franklin County and Glasgow dismissed as nothing because Covington Catholic beat Ryle and lost to Elder.

[Brown]

5 minutes ago, colonel-fan said:

Looks to have? It's not even debatable. Still Woodford is at home and has been dominating teams. Looking forward to this one.

I was trying to be impartial!

[colonel-fan]

5 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

• @gchs_uk9 posted this is the other thread.

FWIW, Calpreps rates their opponents like this:

1. Elder (CovCath - LOSS)
2. Ryle (CovCath)
3. Lexington Catholic (Cov Cath - LOSS)
4. Franklin County (WC)
5. Glasgow (WC)
6. Dixie Heights (CovCath)
7. Conner x 2 (CovCath)
8. Highlands x 2 (CovCath)
9. Cooper (CovCath)
10. Paul Dunbar (WC)
11. Collins (WC)
12. West Jessamine x 2 (WC)
13. Belfry (CovCath)
14. Tates Creek (WC)
15. Simon Kenton (WC)
16. Madison Southern x 2 (WC)
17. Boone County (CovCath)
18. Campbell County (WC)
19. East Jessamine (WC)

On the whole, Covington Catholic has played the tougher schedule. They've also lost to two of those good teams. But Woodford County has two of the three best wins among the two teams. I'm prepared to say Covington Catholic's schedule has been tougher but I'm not prepared to see wins over Franklin County and Glasgow dismissed as nothing because Covington Catholic beat Ryle and lost to Elder.

That's a good post. But the three best wins is an arbitrary place to stop. CovCath has 7 of the top 9 wins is another way to look at it. 

[Voice of Reason]

9 minutes ago, colonel-fan said:

Looks to have? It's not even debatable. Still Woodford is at home and has been dominating teams. Looking forward to this one.

I brought some info over from the other thread and posted it above.

On the SOS debate, there is zero doubt Cov Cath has played a stronger schedule. However, Woodford County has two very good wins (Franklin County, Glasgow). Those two teams are ranked just behind Cov Cath on calpreps.com. Cov Cath is #19 in the state and Franklin County is #23; Glasgow is #25. Woodford County's schedule and wins show they are capable of beating Cov Cath.

[colonel-fan]

2 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

I brought some info over from the other thread and posted it above.

On the SOS debate, there is zero doubt Cov Cath has played a stronger schedule. However, Woodford County has two very good wins (Franklin County, Glasgow). Those two teams are ranked just behind Cov Cath on calpreps.com. Cov Cath is #19 in the state and Franklin County is #23; Glasgow is #25. Woodford County's schedule shows they are capable of beating Cov Cath.

I never said otherwise? Just commented on the SOS.

I think this is one of the better matchups in the state this Friday.

[Brown]

@Voice of Reasonwhere is Beechwood on that list?  CovCath played Beechwood.

[Voice of Reason]

Just now, colonel-fan said:

I never said otherwise? Just commenting on the SOS.

I think this is one of the better matchups in the state this Friday.

That wasn't meant specifically for you. There was a lot of discussion in the other thread that seemed to discount Woodford County's schedule.

When I look at SOS, I look for two things. One, quality of the schedule overall. Two, what wins does a team have against quality opponents. Playing a very strong schedule doesn't mean much if a team doesn't get wins against some of those tough opponents. Woodford County has wins against high quality opponents.

[Voice of Reason]

4 minutes ago, Brown said:

@Voice of Reasonwhere is Beechwood on that list?  CovCath played Beechwood.

Beechwood is #17. Beechwood gets knocked down a few notches on a statewide list like that because of their district opponents. That brings down their overall SOS.

Cov Cath beat Ryle who is #16.

[colonel-fan]

Looking forward to seeing Patterson, Stacy, Nelson and Smith on offense for the Yellow Jackets. 

[Paul Dean]

I know this will probably be an unpopular post; however, I am just not on the Woodford bandwagon.  They are not battle tested for this deep in the playoffs, while Cov Cath is completely tested.  I know Woodford has some athletes but experience rates very high this deep.  Saw Woodford’s game with Franklin and thought Franklin lost the game more than Woodford won it.  I’ll take Cov Cath by 10.

[colonel-fan]

1 minute ago, Paul Dean said:

I know this will probably be an unpopular post; however, I am just not on the Woodford bandwagon.  They are not battle tested for this deep in the playoffs, while Cov Cath is completely tested.  I know Woodford has some athletes but experience rates very high this deep.  Saw Woodford’s game with Franklin and thought Franklin lost the game more than Woodford won it.  I’ll take Cov Cath by 10.

Why would that be an unpopular post?

[Brown]

Franklin County also lost 31-13 to Ballard.

[Voice of Reason]

1 minute ago, Paul Dean said:

I know this will probably be an unpopular post; however, I am just not on the Woodford bandwagon.  They are not battle tested for this deep in the playoffs, while Cov Cath is completely tested.  I know Woodford has some athletes but experience rates very high this deep.  Saw Woodford’s game with Franklin and thought Franklin lost the game more than Woodford won it.  I’ll take Cov Cath by 10.

Cov Cath is playing their best football of the year. Woodford is perhaps a slight favorite because of their overall season long performance. For me, this is a pick 'em game because Cov Cath is playing well and has gained confidence the past few games.