The Puzzle Pieces Come Together

This past July I did something with my niece and nephew on vacation I had not done since I was a kid myself. Over the span of the week, with whatever free time became open at lunch or at night before bed, we worked on a 500 piece jigsaw puzzle. It was an especially daunting challenge at first as it seemed overwhelming with so many pieces looking the same, but the old tried and true rule of feeling in the corners and framing the picture allowed us to get going and once the patterns became noticeable and the pieces thinned out, we wrapped it up much quicker in the end.

 

With two weeks remaining in the season, the Class 2A puzzle has now been framed and the pieces continue to come together rapidly. Let's go District by District and see what we have figured out and re-set for the final District vs. District portion of the season.

 

District 1- "Just needs that last piece to fit"

Three cheers for Caldwell County! We previewed their game last week and eluded to how the Offense needed to make big plays and that was exactly what they did in their 42-40 win over Murray.In a game with over 900 yards of total Offense the Caldwell Tigers had the last laugh and broke Murray's heart.

 

It will be a tall task for Murray to defeat Mayfield, but it could be another shootout as Hunter Utley was far from the reason Murray lost. Mayfield will look to exploit their Defense again which struggled with Caldwell's balance. Fort Campbell and Ballard Memorial match up in an elimination game this week.

 

Projected Finish (With Current PRI's):

1. Mayfield (0.736, 3rd)

2. Caldwell County (0.681, 5th)

3. Murray (0.635, 9th)

4. Ballard Memorial (0.400, 28th)

 

District 2- "That one last center piece"

 

Owensboro Catholic is in cruise control. They have already bested the lot and only have last place Butler County remaining. Conversely, the 4th seed is already determined as Todd County Central has the week off and their District schedule completed.

 

The story right now is will it be McLean County or Hancock County who gets the First Round playoff game? The Cougars from McLean County got the big win against Todd Central as they have won four of their last five games. Hancock will have the benefit of playing at home. This may be one of the most even Class 2A games of the week.

 

Projected Finish (With Current PRI's):

1. Owensboro Catholic (0.710, 4th)

2. McLean County (0.537, 17th)

3. Hancock County (0.450, 24th)

4. Todd Central (0.507, 20th)

 

District 3- "Umm, I think we are missing a few pieces. Check the box"

 

Alright, now we have some drama.

 

Let's start here: Monroe County is done playing District foes after defeating Metcalfe County. They are the leader in the clubhouse with a 3-1 District record and a win over Clinton County. Clinton County's only loss was to Monroe so their game against Edmonson County will be the pivot point. A win by Clinton County makes Monroe the top-seed but gives the Bulldogs a home game. A win by Edmonson and the Wildcats win the pot outright, a loss and they potentially fall all the way to the 4-seed if Metcalfe County can beat Green County somehow. If Green COunty gets their First win of the season Metcalfe gets left out in the cold.

 

Projected Finish (With Current PRI's):

1. Monroe County (0.458, 23rd)

2. Clinton County (0.482, 21st)

3. Edmonson County (0.377, 31st)

4. Green County (0.310, 35th)

 

District 4- "Can we build it again, please?"

On the polar opposite end of the spectrum when comparing District 3 is District 4. This powerhouse District is not only more straight lined to figure out, but the quality of teams has made it a truly special lot. Lexington Christian Academy and Somerset locked horns in what had potential to be "must see TV" and did that game ever live up to the hype! Behind a gritty effort by Xavier Brown and pivotal plays by the Eagle defense, LCA was able to win by a single point and for all intents of purposes appear on their way to the top-seed.

 

Danville was also busy on Friday in their own key game and defeated Washington County as the young Admirals seemingly improve every week. The Commanders have now lost four of their last six games and will most likely see that add another loss tally this week against an angry Briarjumper squad.

 

Projected Finish (With Current PRI's):

1. Lexington Christian Academy (0.783, 1st)

2. Somerset (0.739, 2nd)

3. Danville (0.563, 15th)

4. Washington County (0.583, 14th)

 

 

District 5- "Well at least this part is done."

 

Walton-Verona has become a fixture to win this District and once again had little resistance as they did just that. Carroll County was the only team to make them break a sweat, and they also outclassed Owen County to sure up their homefield advantage in Round 1. Owen County has essentially claimed the 3rd spot when they romped Gallatin County, and the Wildcats secured their first win in a battle of winless teams against Shawnee last week.

 

Projected Finish (With Current PRI's):

1. Walton-Verona (0.552, 16th)

2. Carroll County (0.480, 22nd)

3. Owen County (0.387, 30th)

4. Gallatin County (0.297, 38th)

 

District 6- "Oh look! A Beechwood appeared!"

 

Beechwood is finding their form and that is a scary proposition! The Tigers Defense continues to play well and their Offense found their footing against Lloyd Memorial and have now posted 105 points in the past two weeks after only scoring 74 points in the six prior games.

 

The Juggernauts can only hold on to the thin hope Newport can shock Beechwood and force a 3-way tie, but don't get your hopes up. Once the buzzer sounds in Fort Mitchell this one will be all set with Covington Holy Cross bringing up the distant rear.

 

Projected Finish (With Current PRI's):

1. Beechwood (0.640, 7th)

2. Lloyd Memorial (0.638, 8th)

3. Newport (0.606, 12th)

4. Covington Holy Cross (0.446, 25th)

 

District 7- "I don't even need to put these rest of these pieces together, I know how it should look."

 

Welcome to Breathitt County sacrificial win padding District. The Bobcats have literally toyed with everyone in District 7 and will most likely do so until they are the only team left after Round 2. Leslie County and Middlesboro are the only two teams who have shown an ability to even compete in short spurts. The Eagles will be the last team to fall to Breathitt in the regular season and will fall to 3rd once the dust settles. Middlesboro beat them by a point in a great game so at the very least the playoff rematch will be fun to watch. Knott County Central's win over Morgan County at the end of September will be what gets them into the playoffs.

 

Projected Finish (With Current PRI's):

1. Breathitt County (0.655, 6th)

2. Middlesboro (0.603, 13th)

3. Leslie County (0.515, 19th)

4. Knott County Central (0.388, 29th)

 

District 8- "That was better than I expected"

 

West Carter has wrapped up the top seed. The Comets didn't exactly look the part of the eventual top team when they started 1-2, or even when they only beat hapless Prestonsburg 19-0, but when the games mattered the most they played great defeating Shelby Valley and Martin County 70-13 combined. Shelby Valley will wrap up an 8-2 season if they defeat Bath County this week and will lock up a #2 seed. Martin County has been a pleasant surprise with five wins and can end Prestonsburg's playoff hopes with a victory. If the Blackcats can rally for a win it will be a three-way tie for the Final two spots. In that event, it will be very difficult for the Blackcats to even get in unless they can win this week with only one Non-District win over a weak Powell County squad. Martin County's 5 wins will be tough to top and Bath County owns the second tie-breaker.

 

Projected Finish (With Current PRI's):

1. West Carter (0.609, 11th)

2. Shelby Valley (0.611, 10th)

3. Martin County (0.532, 18th)

4. Bath County (0.434, 26th)

Projected 3rd Round if Top-Seeds Win:

 

WEST

#4 Monroe County at #1 Lexington Christian Academy

#3 Owensboro Catholic at #2 Mayfield

 

EAST

#4 Walton-Verona at #1 Beechwood (expect the Tigers to slightly jump Breathitt with their last two games factored)

#3 West Carter at #2 Breathitt County

 

Projected Semi-Finals

#4 Breathitt County at #1 LCA

#3 Beechwood at #2 Mayfield

Nice job. Really enjoyed it! 2A has been fun this season away from the usual suspects. D3 and D8 have both been interesting.

Great article. Love the breakdown with RPI rankings in them.

Awesome article!

 

The only thing I see differently is Beechwood traveling to LexChristian and Breathitt taking the journey to Mayfield.

 

Just don’t see Beechwood jumping Breathitt in the RPI with Newport and NewCath remaining on the schedule.

Awesome article!

 

The only thing I see differently is Beechwood traveling to LexChristian and Breathitt taking the journey to Mayfield.

 

Just don’t see Beechwood jumping Breathitt in the RPI with Newport and NewCath remaining on the schedule.

 

They have been continuously gaining ground. Breathitt's OWP and OOWP just keep getting worse with every week.

 

Breathitt has Leslie County 0.515 and Pike Central 0.613 left.

Beechwood has Newport 0.606 and NewCath 0.676 left.

 

Breathitt will get a bonus if they beat Pike Central as a 3A school, so that will factor, but also consider Pike Central will most likely lose this week while NewCath will win.

 

It's that OWP and OOWP where we can see the big action. Alot of Beechwood's non-District opponents should continue to post wins while Breathitt's will continue to take losses.

 

It will be close, but I am going to predict Beechwood eaks this one out.

If Beechwood beats Newport Friday, I think they pass Breathitt in RPI this week.

I’m not an expert at the RPi system yet, but I agree Beechwood will continue to rise. Their schedule was a brutal one with no cupcakes. So long as they finish out their district games with W’s, I would say they keep climbing.

 

Great breakdown too. Very informative.

Thank you again for the great article. I look forward to this every week!

Projected 3rd Round if Top-Seeds Win:

 

WEST

#4 Monroe County at #1 Lexington Christian Academy

#3 Owensboro Catholic at #2 Mayfield

 

EAST

#4 Walton-Verona at #1 Beechwood (expect the Tigers to slightly jump Breathitt with their last two games factored)

#3 West Carter at #2 Breathitt County

 

Projected Semi-Finals

#4 Breathitt County at #1 LCA

#3 Beechwood at #2 Mayfield

 

Don't forget LCA will have to beat Somerset again, and considering they'll have the whole team back except Miller, hat will be hard to beat a good team twice.

Projected 3rd Round if Top-Seeds Win:

 

WEST

#4 Monroe County at #1 Lexington Christian Academy

#3 Owensboro Catholic at #2 Mayfield

 

EAST

#4 Walton-Verona at #1 Beechwood (expect the Tigers to slightly jump Breathitt with their last two games factored)

#3 West Carter at #2 Breathitt County

 

Projected Semi-Finals

#4 Breathitt County at #1 LCA

#3 Beechwood at #2 Mayfield

 

Don't forget LCA will have to beat Somerset again, and considering they'll have the whole team back except Miller, that will be hard to beat a good team twice.

Don't forget LCA will have to beat Somerset again, and considering they'll have the whole team back except Miller, that will be hard to beat a good team twice.

 

IF they play again, it should be another dandy. LCA only winning by one point on their home field means these two teams are right on par with each other talent wise.