December 15, 20187 yr In 2010-11...91 teams made at least 7 3-pointers per game with the top 10 teams all hitting at between 8.7 to 11.0 per game. In 2018-19 season so far...246 teams are making at least 7 3-pointers per game. The top 10 teams are hitting between 10.8 to 13.2 per game. In 2010-11 86 teams attempted 20 3's per game. In 2018-19 so far, 274 teams are taking at least 20 3's per game. Shooting percentages are just slightly better over that time. Is it time to move the line to the NBA distance? Please give reasoning for moving it or leaving it.
December 15, 20187 yr No. If the % of makes had taken a sizable jump, maybe but as it stands the difference is the number taken. By in large the college kids don't have the strength or developed skill to hit from NBA range with any level of consistency...
December 16, 20187 yr No way I would jump to the NBA line. That's a 3' difference--way too big of a jump. The percentage hasn't changed so I don't see a reason for it. The increase is a result of more and more coaches realizing what guys like Pitino figured out immediately 30 years ago AND, more recently, analytics. The best shots are (in order): free throws, two pointers in/near the restricted area, and threes; followed way behind by mid-range twos and post ups (unless you can get it deep enough to be in/near the restricted area). You might be able to go 9" sometime in the near future and then go another 9" to the International line but I think those would a decade away or more. The next move for the NBA is a bigger court because you can only go 22' in the corners and that is a significantly easier shot. Over time, I think all of these things will happen as athletes get bigger and stronger and do so at an earlier and earlier age.
December 16, 20187 yr We're pretty much at the point where contested shots at the rim are worse than clean looks from three as well. I do think there's a conversation to be had about going to the international three point line. The NBA line is just too far back for most all college kids...
December 16, 20187 yr We're pretty much at the point where contested shots at the rim are worse than clean looks from three as well. I do think there's a conversation to be had about going to the international three point line. The NBA line is just too far back for most all college kids... Agreed, I think they should use the international line. Go on a basketball court with the NBA line and try to shoot a few. It’s incredible what those guys can do from that distance. It’s really far.
December 16, 20187 yr We're pretty much at the point where contested shots at the rim are worse than clean looks from three as well. I do think there's a conversation to be had about going to the international three point line. The NBA line is just too far back for most all college kids... Correct. There is a study on that. It factors in the defenders distance from the shooter (MIT, I think). If you get to the extreme ends of both, where the shot inside the retricted area has a defender with 1' and the open three has no defender with 7', then the open three becomes more efficient (or something very close to those senarios). I'm assuming that does NOT factor in the likelihood of getting fouled in that restricted area situation though.
December 16, 20187 yr Agreed, I think they should use the international line. Go on a basketball court with the NBA line and try to shoot a few. It’s incredible what those guys can do from that distance. It’s really far. I agree with you guys on the International line but 18" is a big jump. It might take two different extensions to do so but it will happen at some point.
December 16, 20187 yr Yes, but it is more to do with spreading the court than trying to analyze shooting percentages. College kids struggle with spacing and maybe this would help it? It is a cluttered mess inside the arc.
December 16, 20187 yr Yes, but it is more to do with spreading the court than trying to analyze shooting percentages. College kids struggle with spacing and maybe this would help it? It is a cluttered mess inside the arc. It’s a cluttered mess because most college kids are still very average from where the line is now. Moving it back is only going to make that worse...
December 17, 20187 yr No. If the % of makes had taken a sizable jump, maybe but as it stands the difference is the number taken. By in large the college kids don't have the strength or developed skill to hit from NBA range with any level of consistency... This. All of this.
December 17, 20187 yr Yes, but it is more to do with spreading the court than trying to analyze shooting percentages. College kids struggle with spacing and maybe this would help it? It is a cluttered mess inside the arc. That may be in part more to the game changing than where the three point line is at.
December 17, 20187 yr I'm sure the NCAA 3pt line will move back at some point, but it should never move back as far as the NBA line. JMO.
December 17, 20187 yr Agreed, I think they should use the international line. Go on a basketball court with the NBA line and try to shoot a few. It’s incredible what those guys can do from that distance. It’s really far. NBA players are so amazing. Back when I would play basketball, the college line didn't require much effort to get the ball to the hoop. At the NBA line, it was far enough back to make it feel like you were compromising form to get it there. To think people like Steph Curry, being guarded, can shoot at a 50% clip is astonishing.
December 17, 20187 yr NBA players are so amazing. Back when I would play basketball, the college line didn't require much effort to get the ball to the hoop. At the NBA line, it was far enough back to make it feel like you were compromising form to get it there. To think people like Steph Curry, being guarded, can shoot at a 50% clip is astonishing. No question. It's pretty incredible.
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