I have been hearing alot about who plays in weak districts, who plays "Cupcake" schedules, etc..., so I decided to do some research. I am not stating any opinions here, so please just look at the research and see what conclusions you come up with.

 

First, please realize I did NOT research every 2A district, just the one's with title contenders in them (the BIG 4). I am including total district record (as of 10/16), district winning percentage, total strength of schedule, and non-district strength of schedule. I will also note any teams with particularly good strength of schedules that may skew the data.

 

Let the show begin:

 

Class AA, Semi 2, Region 3, District 6

Russell 7-1

Fleming County 6-2

West Carter 5-4

East Carter 4-4

Estill County 1-7

Morgan County 2-6

Lewis County 1-8

Powell County 1-7

 

District won/loss record: 27-39

District winning percentage: 41%

District strength of schedule: 282-372

Non-district strength of schedule: 92-100

Non-district strength percentage: 48%

Overall notes: Overall, mediocre district.

Contains 4 teams with 2 or less wins.

Weakest non-district schedule = Powell County (5-19)

Strongest non-district schedule = Fleming County (15-9)

 

Class AA, Semi 2, Region 3, District 5

Mercer County 8-0

Spencer County 5-3

Lloyd Memorial 4-4

Newport 5-3

Henry County 2-6

North Oldham 0-7

 

District won/loss record: 25-24

District winning percentage: 51%

District strength of schedule: 245-239

Non-district strength of schedule: 126-118

Non-district strength percentage: 51%

Overall notes: Overall, the district looks above average.

Contains 2 teams with 2 or less wins.

Contains 1 team with 0 wins.

Weakest non-district schedule = Newport (15-25)

Strongest non-district schedule = North Oldham (31-9). This team severely skews the data. North Oldham played 5 teams with a combined record of 31-9. However, they lost to these teams by an average of 41-8.

 

Class AA, Semi 1, Region 2, District 3

Western 8-0

Larue County 6-2

Washington County 5-3

DeSales 4-4

Moore 3-5

Elizabethtown 5-3

Christian Academy 1-7

Shawnee 1-7

 

District won/loss record: 33-31

District winning percentage: 52%

District strength of schedule: 326-317

Non-district strength of schedule: 95-100

Non-district strength percentage: 48%

Overall notes: Overall, the district looks above average.

Contains 2 teams with 2 or less wins.

Weakest non-district schedule = Elizabethtown (4-20). Skews data

Strongest non-district schedule = Louisville Christian Academy (18-8).

 

Class AA, Semi 2, Region 4, District 8

Belfry 7-2

Sheldon Clark 7-1

Shelby Valley 5-3

Prestonsburg 4-4

Pike County Central 3-5

Magoffin County 2-6

East Ridge 2-6

 

District won/loss record: 30-27

District winning percentage: 53%

District strength of schedule: 284-304

Non-district strength of schedule: 93-135

Non-district strength percentage: 40.7%

Overall notes: Overall, the district looks the best on paper, however this is where the enigma begins. They have the LOWEST non-district winning percentage for strength of schedule.

Contains 2 teams with 2 or less wins.

Weakest non-district schedule = Pike County Central (5-24). Skews data

Strongest non-district schedule = Prestonsburg (21-12).

 

I have also included the Week 8 AP Top 10 with their current records and non-district strength of schedule :

 

Week 8 AP Top 10

 

1. Mercer County (8-0) (18-24)

2. Western (8-0) (13-11)

3. Russell (7-1) (13-11)

4. Belfry (7-2) (16-16)

5. Breathitt Co. (7-1) (28-19)

6. Caldwell Co. (7-1) (11-13)

7. Middlesboro (7-1) (17-29)

8. Larue Co. (6-2) (14-9)

9. Ft. Campbell (6-2) (6-18)

10. Sheldon Clark (7-1) (8-24)

I think it's pretty funny that you only included the BIG 4, so to speak.. What BIG 4 may that be?...I don't think any of the "BIG 4" have had enough success to warrent the name...Westerns never even been to a championship, much less won one...Russell won last year, but, certainly 1 year doesn't warrent it, Mercer Co has no past tradition or success at all to justify it. Belfry probably warrents the name more than the rest, but, I could name a dozen teams who've accomplished as much the past 3-4 years and certainly ones who've done it alot longer....

You act as if one of these teams is a lock to win it...We may as well tell Caldwell, Ft Campbell, Oboro Cath, Trigg Co, Middlesboro, Breathitt, Larue, Sheldon Clark and others, not to bother playing the games...

Week 8 AP Top 10

 

1. Mercer County (8-0) (18-24)

2. Western (8-0) (13-11)

3. Russell (7-1) (13-11)

4. Belfry (7-2) (16-16)

5. Breathitt Co. (7-1) (28-19)

6. Caldwell Co. (7-1) (11-13)

7. Middlesboro (7-1) (17-29)

8. Larue Co. (6-2) (14-9)

9. Ft. Campbell (6-2) (6-18)

10. Sheldon Clark (7-1) (8-24)

You're making a good effort to distinguish between which teams are playing tougher schedules than others, but records don't always tell the tale.

 

An example: Fort Campbell and Caldwell County.

 

Caldwell County's three non-district opponents are Mayfield, Crittenden County and Union County. Fort Campbell's are Paducah Tilghman, Madisonville and Fort Knox.

 

While the records of Caldwell's three teams is more impressive, it's very debatable as to whether the teams are any better, or better at all. Tilghman has played one of the toughest schedules in western Kentucky. Fort Knox has a bad record, but they have played one of the tougher schedules in Class A.

 

And if you match up the teams ... Mayfield beat Tilghman in overtime. Madisonville is favored to beat Union County this week. I expect that Crittenden would be favored to beat Fort Knox.

 

In any case, the evidence shows that those two teams' non-district schedules are much closer than the records would indicate.

 

Week 8 AP Top 10

 

1. Mercer County (8-0) (18-24)

2. Western (8-0) (13-11)

3. Russell (7-1) (13-11)

4. Belfry (7-2) (16-16)

5. Breathitt Co. (7-1) (28-19)

6. Caldwell Co. (7-1) (11-13)

7. Middlesboro (7-1) (17-29)

8. Larue Co. (6-2) (14-9)

9. Ft. Campbell (6-2) (6-18)

10. Sheldon Clark (7-1) (8-24)

 

Actually it's 28-35 (Central (TN) is 6-2 and Lee (VA) is 2-5.

Russell district is very weak this year and it's hurting developement ....

 

Where it really hurts is in physical play and also no one is even close to skills Russell puts out on the field ...

Hey reddevilmvp06 better toot your horn while you can cause you wont be in this "weak district" next year. You'll have teams with the skills on the field in 07.

There's no doubt that Russell plays in the weakest district in 2a, if not the state. Even the 3rd and 4th teams in that district ( East and West Carter) are not good at all. All of their wins have come against very mediocre competition.

That's all I was saying ... toot toot

Russell plays in the weakest district hands down.

I think it's pretty funny that you only included the BIG 4, so to speak.. What BIG 4 may that be?...I don't think any of the "BIG 4" have had enough success to warrent the name...Westerns never even been to a championship, much less won one...Russell won last year, but, certainly 1 year doesn't warrent it, Mercer Co has no past tradition or success at all to justify it. Belfry probably warrents the name more than the rest, but, I could name a dozen teams who've accomplished as much the past 3-4 years and certainly ones who've done it alot longer....

You act as if one of these teams is a lock to win it...We may as well tell Caldwell, Ft Campbell, Oboro Cath, Trigg Co, Middlesboro, Breathitt, Larue, Sheldon Clark and others, not to bother playing the games...

 

 

Just 4 Fun-

 

Don't worry the teams people on this site talk about winning the championship never win. Including us at O'Cath. One week we were favored to win a game and that was the Russell game and we lost. Ft. Campbell and Belfry were favored in 2005 and Breathitt and E-town were favored in 2004 neither one made it. Trust me Mercer County should win it all, but they will find a way to blow it. Look for Caldwell county to leave Region 1.

I think it's pretty funny that you only included the BIG 4, so to speak.. What BIG 4 may that be?...I don't think any of the "BIG 4" have had enough success to warrent the name...Westerns never even been to a championship, much less won one...Russell won last year, but, certainly 1 year doesn't warrent it, Mercer Co has no past tradition or success at all to justify it. Belfry probably warrents the name more than the rest, but, I could name a dozen teams who've accomplished as much the past 3-4 years and certainly ones who've done it alot longer....

You act as if one of these teams is a lock to win it...We may as well tell Caldwell, Ft Campbell, Oboro Cath, Trigg Co, Middlesboro, Breathitt, Larue, Sheldon Clark and others, not to bother playing the games...

 

It had nothing to do with excluding other teams/districts. I simply did not have unlimited hours to research every district in 2A. I chose the "Big 4" who are the top 4 teams in 2A. Like I stated in my original post, I'm not stating who is the best team, the best district, or the likes. It is simply research on the TOP 4 TEAMS' districts.

Caldwell Co. has had some pretty good teams in the pst, makin alot of noise regular season. Allways heard alot of talk about them but once playoffs got around they never got over the hump. Hopefully they will live up to all the expectations of now and past.

Actually it's 28-35 (Central (TN) is 6-2 and Lee (VA) is 2-5.

 

I see where I made my mistake. Here is what I have now for Middlesboro:

 

Non-District Schedule

 

Knoxville Central (6-2)

Lynn Camp (3-5)

Pineville (3-5)

Lee County, VA (2-5)

Corbin (3-5)

Harlan (6-2)

 

This brings their total non-district strength of schedule to (23-24).

Caldwell Co. has had some pretty good teams in the pst, makin alot of noise regular season. Allways heard alot of talk about them but once playoffs got around they never got over the hump. Hopefully they will live up to all the expectations of now and past.

What seasons are you referring to? Other than the early 90s, when the Tigers had some glossy records but couldn't get by Mayfield, that assessment really doesn't apply to Caldwell. Are you sure you're not confusing them with another team?

Just 4 Fun-

 

Don't worry the teams people on this site talk about winning the championship never win. Including us at O'Cath. One week we were favored to win a game and that was the Russell game and we lost. Ft. Campbell and Belfry were favored in 2005 and Breathitt and E-town were favored in 2004 neither one made it. Trust me Mercer County should win it all, but they will find a way to blow it. Look for Caldwell county to leave Region 1.

 

If Mercer County doesn't win state then whoever stops them is just the better team. They aren't going to blow anything. They are too well coached.