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Clinton vs. Trump - Track fivethirtyeight

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Before everyone gets to excited believing what the media is telling you about the hacks and such I think a few need to go back and read this thread again to keep you honest. Serious. You have not learned your lesson. :)

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:popcorn:

 

This is going to be awesome.

 

Yes it is. Thats a understatement.

And when Trump loses(which he will by a good margin), you will be talking rigging and revolting.

 

Science this is quite the statement dont you think? This thread is classic to say the least. :popcorn:

538 says there is a 10% chance that Trump whens the electoral vote while losing the popular vote.

 

More great stuff from 538 as it turns out.

Science this is quite the statement dont you think? This thread is classic to say the least. :popcorn:

 

I read back on the many, many on BGP who were gleefully predicting a coronation of queenie and I cannot help but smile as I read them. I wonder what time it was on election night when the snarkiest among them started getting sick to their stomachs as the reality of a Trump victory hit them squarely in the gut.

More great stuff from 538 as it turns out.

 

I'm only embarrassed by not catching my error in spelling. Shameful.

@Jesse James, you seem to have a stiff one for 538. I'm not sure you understand what they do.

I'm only embarrassed by not catching my error in spelling. Shameful.

 

Myron & When.

@Jesse James, you seem to have a stiff one for 538. I'm not sure you understand what they do.

 

No I full well understand what they do. When all you guys were putting your 100% faith in that site I researched it alot. They have been very successful. However I warned you all this was not a typical election, ( Or at the time I felt this was not normal) and most of the other side kinda almost made fun at myself and others who pointed this out. I am just calling your and others attention to the false info this site was being fed along with everyone else and they were basing predictions off of falsehoods. Thats all.

 

I do get a kick going back and reading this thread. Its hilarious.

If you choose to read through the thread, keep the facts in mind. Hillary won the popular vote by more than 2%. Trump won the electoral college. Anyone who predicted Hillary would win the popular vote was right. Anyone who predicted Trump would win the electoral college was right. I only read the last couple pages but I didn't see any posts I consider embarrassing or laughable. I don't doubt there are a few like that in the thread but probably not nearly as many as some might expect.

No I full well understand what they do. When all you guys were putting your 100% faith in that site I researched it alot. They have been very successful. However I warned you all this was not a typical election, ( Or at the time I felt this was not normal) and most of the other side kinda almost made fun at myself and others who pointed this out. I am just calling your and others attention to the false info this site was being fed along with everyone else and they were basing predictions off of falsehoods. Thats all.

 

I do get a kick going back and reading this thread. Its hilarious.

 

The number of shots I've seen you take at them then is odd. Take a shot at those doing the polls. Completely fair.

The number of shots I've seen you take at them then is odd. Take a shot at those doing the polls. Completely fair.

 

Actually the shots were not at 538, they were at the posters that lived and died by everything they said.

DT and Rudy G are already planting seeds for when they lose. "Rigged elections" is going to be the mantra now through election day.

 

Donald Trump is wrong. Rigging an election is almost impossible. - The Washington Post

 

Dangerous precedent being set by the Republican nominee. I hope more listen to Speaker Ryan.

 

Horrible. Horrible when Bernie did it and horrible with Trump. That is an attack on our nation and totally irresponsible. Trump's ego will not allow him to make an apology or accept defeat.

You guys are the greatest!! Pure gold!

 

:lol: :lol: :lol:

If you choose to read through the thread, keep the facts in mind. Hillary won the popular vote by more than 2%. Trump won the electoral college. Anyone who predicted Hillary would win the popular vote was right. Anyone who predicted Trump would win the electoral college was right. I only read the last couple pages but I didn't see any posts I consider embarrassing or laughable. I don't doubt there are a few like that in the thread but probably not nearly as many as some might expect.

 

The popular vote margin comes from one state and one state only - California. Over 4.3M difference in 2016.

 

In super Dem-stronghold Illinios, Clinton (and Trump vs Romney) basically ran even in terms of raw numbers to 2012.

 

In super Dem-strong NY, raw numbers were up for both. But only 100K for Clinton while Trump did 400K better than Romney.

 

California is the only state that substantially improved for Dems/Clinton - and by an unusually, extremely high margin and one that is not reflected in the other super-Dem strong hold states.

 

The Dems picked up 900K more votes in 2016 than 2012. It was even 500K greater than 2008. The Repubs lost around 350K. The margin pickup was 7% and that phenomena did not occur anywhere else in the country. California population estimates indicate there are probably a little over a million more people there in 2016 than in 2012. 30% of them would be less than 18. Yet there were a million more votes cast California than in 2012.

 

Without California the popular vote argument is all but invalid for this election it would seem.

 

 

 

Source of numbers:

 

Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

You guys are the greatest!! Pure gold!

 

:lol: :lol: :lol:

 

What is wrong/humorous with my post?

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