July 4, 201610 yr RealClearPolitics - Election 216 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton The RCP weighted General Election Polling has HRC up by about 4%. I have looked at the polling in some detail and find some interesting points. Trump is actually getting the female support he needs. He is getting the independent support he needs. He is actually getting the Hispanic support he needs. Why is he behind? He is only getting 70-75% of GOP vote. How ironic! Decades of railing against Hillary Clinton, only to have the GOP put her in office. The Free Traders in the GOP have successfully reduced Trump's backing in the party to sabotage their own nominee. One caveat to this pooling is these polls sample a population containing many more democrats that republicans. I've seen differences of up to 35% in the polls that have HRC up double digits. Not sure if that is representative of the General Election Turnout.
July 4, 201610 yr I think when the decision is made on the email scandal it will affect the numbers. If there are some type of charges, be they misdemeanor or worse, they will have an affect.
July 4, 201610 yr Author I think when the decision is made on the email scandal it will affect the numbers. If there are some type of charges, be they misdemeanor or worse, they will have an affect. Obama's zeal to campaign for HRC leads me to believe he has great confidence that no action will be taken by the DOJ. The Clintons just have too much money to throw around to be held accountable for anything. Compromising national security by putting info on an unprotected private server, participating in a spin control meeting while her employees were taking fire, reciving donations from foreign governments. Its just incredible.
July 4, 201610 yr Watching CNN this morning and a couple of talking heads said the FBI will be wrapping things up in the next couple of with no charges. HRC will get a bump. She may be +10 points after the convention.
July 4, 201610 yr Author Watching CNN this morning and a couple of talking heads said the FBI will be wrapping things up in the next couple of with no charges. HRC will get a bump. She may be +10 points after the convention. Only to be impeached immediately upon taking office.
July 4, 201610 yr Author 538 has HRC with a 79% chance of winning. What were their odds of Trump being the nominee? It is also very difficult to find anything that is not saturated with bias. I've looked at polls that have 35% more sampled Dem than GOP. Also, the only reason Trump is polling behind Hillary, is his opposition in his own party (70-75%). He has the support (compared to Romney) among women, Hispanics and independents to win. Only %75 of GOP though. I also see evidence of Bernie supporters moving to Trump. This is not going to be a prototypical GOP coalition. Considering just about every GOP Senator and Congressmen supported free trade agreements , and accept $ from their beneficiaries, Trumps ceiling here may be low. But who knows? Its even quite possible Hillary will not be the nominee. It is also possible that the GOP will be redefined as the party of labour.
July 4, 201610 yr Watching CNN this morning and a couple of talking heads said the FBI will be wrapping things up in the next couple of with no charges. HRC will get a bump. She may be +10 points after the convention. Well, after Bill's meeting with the AG, who would expect anything less?
July 4, 201610 yr Technically, do nationwide percentages mean anything? The election results for most states (approximately 40 I would guess, KY one of them) was a given before primaries were over. This election will come down to about 10 states ie OH, FL, PA, ect.. The polls of those states are the only ones that matter. Following CA, TX, MA, TN, CE, KY etc. Is pointless.
July 5, 201610 yr 538 has HRC with a 79% chance of winning. Silver says the number would be higher for HRC but for the number of undecideds and 3rd party voters.
July 5, 201610 yr Have you all not learned anything. The only reason for polls is to give people the perception the stupid election isn't rigged. It has already been decided who will win, as evidenced by the crooked justice system and gutless FBI. Hillary will be the next president unless she falls dead or is killed.
July 5, 201610 yr Have you all not learned anything. The only reason for polls is to give people the perception the stupid election isn't rigged. It has already been decided who will win' date=' as evidenced by the crooked justice system and gutless FBI. Hillary will be the next president unless she falls dead or is killed.[/quote'] To the BUNKER!
July 5, 201610 yr To the BUNKER! "I did not email any classified emails to anyone." She makes it hard to defend her.
July 5, 201610 yr Silver says the number would be higher for HRC but for the number of undecideds and 3rd party voters. Silver became famous after the last election. He very well could be right here. But he has some egg on his face sense getting his new site.
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