May 13, 201610 yr As to what is in bold, most of the Dem talking heads disagree with this. They think the young people will just sit this one out. Unfortunately for your side, lots of GOP women are going to sit this one out, too, if Trump is the nominee. The 70% Trump disapproval rating among women nationwide necessarily includes millions of GOP women.
May 13, 201610 yr Unfortunately for your side, lots of GOP women are going to sit this one out, too, if Trump is the nominee. The 70% Trump disapproval rating among women nationwide necessarily includes millions of GOP women. Unfortunately for your side, Hillary has massive disapproval ratings also.
May 13, 201610 yr Unfortunately for your side, Hillary has massive disapproval ratings also. She has problems in that area, but not massive. Saw on cable TV a few days ago that 94 percent of registered Dems would support Hillary vs. Trump, whereas only 84 percent of registered Repubs would support Trump vs. Hillary. That, no doubt, is a result of Trump's 70 percent negative rating among women voters.
May 13, 201610 yr Let's all realize we're going to drive ourselves nuts if we put too much brain matter into these polls. Each poll has it's own methodology, polling techniques, and biases. When you see Trump close or winning in Florida in one poll despite ever other survey showing STRONG negatives amongst Latinos, women, and millenials it should give you pause. If a poll has a large "undecided" number it should give you pause. Some polls make undecideds pick one TODAY. That is suspect. Key will be voter turnout. The more people that turn out the better it is for HRC. The math is REALLY tough for Trump to win. I still shake my head that we are stuck with these two choices and HOPE for a 3rd person to somehow be viable. Dreadful.
May 13, 201610 yr Only polls I like are the ones that poll people that are likely voters. There are a lot of people that will answer a poll via a phone call that have no intention of actually voting. Less we get to wrapped up in polling, remember the polls that came out a week or so before the Gubernatorial Election last fall...Conway was going to win in a walk up 5 points with less than a week to go...only to lose easily by over 7 points.
May 13, 201610 yr Author Let's all realize we're going to drive ourselves nuts if we put too much brain matter into these polls. Each poll has it's own methodology, polling techniques, and biases. When you see Trump close or winning in Florida in one poll despite ever other survey showing STRONG negatives amongst Latinos, women, and millenials it should give you pause. If a poll has a large "undecided" number it should give you pause. Some polls make undecideds pick one TODAY. That is suspect. Key will be voter turnout. The more people that turn out the better it is for HRC. The math is REALLY tough for Trump to win. I still shake my head that we are stuck with these two choices and HOPE for a 3rd person to somehow be viable. Dreadful. The Thesis was that Trump would not be competitive against Hillary. Poll trends, not individual polls, can be used to refute that Thesis. Hillary is showing weakness with Men, Sander's supporters and FBI investigators!
May 14, 201610 yr Author This poll is so stunning, I almost thought it deserved its own thread. National Poll: 15 Registered Voters – Donald Trump Wins Hispanic Voters: Trump 55%, Clinton 45%… | The Last Refuge "National Poll: 1500 Registered Voters – Donald Trump Wins Hispanic Voters: Trump 55%, Clinton 45%… Posted on May 13, 2016 by sundance One America News Network and Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1,574 registered voters across the United States. The poll was conducted on May 10th and has a margin of error of ± 2.5% at the 95% confidence level. (Link to More Data) This OAN poll is the stuff of Team Hillary Clinton nightmares, for a couple of reasons. The poll is well oversampled toward Democrats: 40% Democrat, 33% Republican, 27% Independent. Yet, Hillary barely squeaks out ahead. The Independents in the poll heavily skew toward Donald Trump 58%. This is the battleground space/electorate for almost all swing state polling. Donald Trump wins Hispanic voters. The polling base, “registered voters” does NOT include the Monster Vote."
May 14, 201610 yr This poll is so stunning, I almost thought it deserved its own thread. National Poll: 15 Registered Voters – Donald Trump Wins Hispanic Voters: Trump 55%, Clinton 45%… | The Last Refuge "National Poll: 1500 Registered Voters – Donald Trump Wins Hispanic Voters: Trump 55%, Clinton 45%… Posted on May 13, 2016 by sundance One America News Network and Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1,574 registered voters across the United States. The poll was conducted on May 10th and has a margin of error of ± 2.5% at the 95% confidence level. (Link to More Data) This OAN poll is the stuff of Team Hillary Clinton nightmares, for a couple of reasons. The poll is well oversampled toward Democrats: 40% Democrat, 33% Republican, 27% Independent. Yet, Hillary barely squeaks out ahead. The Independents in the poll heavily skew toward Donald Trump 58%. This is the battleground space/electorate for almost all swing state polling. Donald Trump wins Hispanic voters. The polling base, “registered voters” does NOT include the Monster Vote." Gravis is one of those you have to be wary of. Sometimes accurate. Sometimes REALLY far off.
May 14, 201610 yr Author Gravis is one of those you have to be wary of. Sometimes accurate. Sometimes REALLY far off. Even if there is some significant error in this poll result, it still represents significant movement from the favorability results that showed Trump at 10% with latinos.
May 14, 201610 yr From @pastfrontrunners 178 days before the general in: 2004 - Bush +1.8 2008 - Obama +3.2 2012 - Obama +1.4
May 14, 201610 yr The first polls I will be interested in as possibly giving us true insight into November will be those after the conventions, late August and early September. So much is going to happen over the summer that any numbers now can change a lot, just like those numbers for Hispanic votes if accurate. Bottom line here is this - does Trump have a chance? Yes. How strong that chance is will be clearer at the end of the summer. Right now everyone is throwing darts blindfolded at a moving dartboard. You know about where the dart board is and might get lucky throwing one and hit the board, but that can all change with your next dart.
May 14, 201610 yr As to what is in bold, most of the Dem talking heads disagree with this. They think the young people will just sit this one out. What else is new? As far as "young people" go (however you define that, but I suppose under 35?), they've really only mattered twice (perhaps 3 times) since I've been alive (1970): 92 with Dollar Bill 08 Obama (Possibly Obama 12, but I have no real reason for that, and whatever advantage gained was probably small. A lot of "young people" were a hell of a lot less excited about Obama the second time around.) McGovern was supposed to have the hippie revolution at his back, but unfortunately he was running 4 years too late. He and Mondale hold the modern-day title for the worst whuppin'.
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