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OK, I'll do it (UK-UofL predictions)

Jim Schue

By Jim Schue
in College Football

Louisville at Kentucky  

24 members have voted

  1. 1. Louisville at Kentucky


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Jim Schue

Jim Schue

Posted
Posted

There was a time when I was real concerned about Kentucky beating Louisville in football. That has passed.

 

I've thought about it a lot, and at this point I've made a line, as much as it has pained me to do so. I just see no circumstance UK plays within 10 points of Louisville.

 

So, for the purposes of this bet, since we don't know the advance line, we'll put up a nice avatar wager. I'm taking the Cards at 10 points and above, and challengers can have anything 9.5 and below. I'll roll with some depressing UK football avatar for a week, unless somebody suggests a better, more creatively worse option. Creativity is important here, and I'm a good sport.

 

For the losers who engage in this, it's my call. Probably a Cards-related avatar for a week, but it might not be. Again, it's my call. I am laying -9.5, after all. It's only fair.

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Jim Schue

Jim Schue

Posted
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Vandy might have been the beginning of the end for Stoops but a loss to UL would surely be.

 

I guess we need a general poll here. Those who want the other action can speak up.

uselessinfo

uselessinfo

Posted
Posted
call me dumb but I never really understood the -9.5, +9.5 stuff...

 

Prevents a "push." If the line is -9 then you have the potential for a tie. The half point means someone will win or lose their bet.

AverageJoesGym

AverageJoesGym

Posted
Posted
Still clueless...

 

Think of it like this: The minus or plus points are what the casinos see as the amount of points required to make the score even. If it shows Vandy -3 vs Kentucky that means Vandy is considered to be 3 points better than UK. If you want to bet on Vandy against the point spread they would have to win by more than 3 for you to win your bet. If you instead bet on UK and they won or lost by 2 points or less you would win. If it ended up being Vandy winning by exactly 3 it would be a push and no one wins. That's why most lines at 3.5, 7.5 etc.

Bluegrasscard

Bluegrasscard

Posted
Posted
Still clueless...

 

The line ( +3.5 or -3.5) is set try get the same amount of money bet on either team. This why the lines sometimes change as the week goes on.

 

In some ways betting are a form of gamblers social media and providing insight from thousands of people.

bugatti

bugatti

Posted
Posted
Still clueless...

In order to bet on sports, you have to place teams on equal footing. For example, last night UK in basketball played NJIT. You don't go and bet games and say, "I bet UK will win." Well, no kidding, they are playing a mid-major. In turn, point spreads are created. UK was favored by 22 points (-22) against NJIT. So, when you "bet on UK" in this instance, you are betting on them to win by more than 22 points. In essence, they are starting out a game at a 22 point deficit. Imagine a game tipping off and the score is UK 0, NJIT 22. Will UK win this game? They ended up winning by more than that, so UK "covered the spread."

 

The +/- are one-in-the-same, showing the underdog and favorite, respectively. So last night, UK (-22). That is the exact same thing as saying NJIT (+22). They are still starting the game with a 22 point lead. Had UK won by only 20 points, NJIT would have covered.

 

In short, when you see these numbers, you should be asking yourself, "can this team win by more or less than this number?"

 

For this thread, JS said he thinks UL will win the football game by 10+ points. So the line would read UK vs. UL (-10). If you think UL will win by more than that, you pick the Cards. If you think UL will win by 1-9 points or UK wins, you pick the Cats. If you pick UK and they lose by a TD, you still win the bet.

Bluegrasscard

Bluegrasscard

Posted
Posted
No takers?

 

Its basketball season now....

 

Yesterday resulted in lot of pent up frustraiion overflowing and sudden depression setting in in BBN football terririty.

 

I would not take the 9.5, I doubt anyone would at this point. But the question is - what is Vegas going to open at. Will the official line open in double digits - even with Kentucky at home in was was supposed to be a winnable game at the start of the season?

 

I am thinking open could be 6 1/2 but move up quickly.

Jim Schue

Jim Schue

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10 does see high. But UK does stink.

 

UL's had a couple decent weeks scoring the ball, but I'm not confident yet that will sustain to that level.

 

I'm seeing that 10-point margin being 24-14 or 17-7.

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