1. Central at Henry County

2. Belfry at Pike County Central

3. Lexington Catholic vs. Garrard County

4. Boyle County vs. Western Hills

5. Caldwell County -- OPEN

6. Elizabethtown vs. LaRue County

7. Paducah Tilghman at Fort Campbell

8. Corbin vs. Casey County

9. Bell County at Jackson County

10. Lawrence County vs. Sheldon Clark

Trouble in paradise last week: Boyle County lost to Lexington Catholic, shocker for most around the state. Can Boyle recover and get back on track? Were they exposed? Is Lexington Catholic now the favorite? Central benefited from Boyle County's loss, are they on track to make it all the way to Bowling Green? Is Belfry going to stop them? What about Caldwell County?

What "IF" Caldwell County were to beat Mayfield on the 30th?:popcorn:

I think this race to Bowling Green is a lot closer than most thought at first.

I think this race to Bowling Green is a lot closer than most thought at first.

I agree. Russell and Lawrence County are close. We learned last week Corbin and Bell County are close.

If every team plays at their top level and potential, you will have a Belfry/Central finals.

 

As we all know, that doesn't always happen.

What "IF" Caldwell County were to beat Mayfield on the 30th?:popcorn:

 

Then they probably move into the group of potential champions. Caldwell's problem right now is that outside of the win over Tilghman, they have several good "name" wins but they aren't necessarily great "field" wins. Typically, beating Franklin-Simpson, North Hardin, and Henderson County would put you near the top of your class (especially a smaller school like Caldwell), but none of those three are as good as past years.

What "IF" Caldwell County were to beat Mayfield on the 30th?:popcorn:

 

That, IMHO, is the only thing holding Caldwell back from firmly being planted as one of the favorites.

 

A flawed Tilghman team is their best win... but if they beat Mayfield they immediately make a case as one of the teams to beat..and may actually be the favorite in the West because their path is not nearly as difficult as the teams who have to grind out of Region 2.

 

At the same time, if Caldwell gets bush whacked it will also speak volumes.

To show the depth of this class:

 

Unranked Teams

Bell County beat 4A Wayne County

 

Henry County is 7-1 including a win over 2A Walton-Verona (who will win their District)

 

21 teams in 3A have winning records

By Comparison:

 

1A= 15 Teams Winning Records, 19 Teams At .500 or above

2A= 15 Teams Winning Records, 23 Teams At .500 or above

3A= 21 Teams Winning Records, 27 Teams At .500 or above

4A= 12 Teams Winning Records, 17 Teams At .500 or above

5A= 12 Teams Winning Records, 17 Teams At .500 or above

6A= 17 Teams Winning Records, 22 Teams At .500 or above

Then they probably move into the group of potential champions. Caldwell's problem right now is that outside of the win over Tilghman, they have several good "name" wins but they aren't necessarily great "field" wins. Typically, beating Franklin-Simpson, North Hardin, and Henderson County would put you near the top of your class (especially a smaller school like Caldwell), but none of those three are as good as past years.

 

Very good points GC! I'd like to argue against them, but really don't have much ledge to stand on for it. However, I do think they are lurking right there with the lead pack just in the back of the lead pack.

That, IMHO, is the only thing holding Caldwell back from firmly being planted as one of the favorites.

 

A flawed Tilghman team is their best win... but if they beat Mayfield they immediately make a case as one of the teams to beat..and may actually be the favorite in the West because their path is not nearly as difficult as the teams who have to grind out of Region 2.

 

At the same time, if Caldwell gets bush whacked it will also speak volumes.

 

Fair points ATL! It will be a game MANY across the state will be paying attention to! :thumb:

If every team plays at their top level and potential, you will have a Belfry/Central finals.

 

As we all know, that doesn't always happen.

 

I don't know about that one.

I agree with the logic here, and see that Caldwell is being slighted because of their supposed quality of wins. However, scheduling N. Hardin, Henderson Co, Franklin-Simpson, and Paducah Tilghman are all good wins. I am not sure they have to beat Mayfield, as they are arguably the best team out of the lower three or four classes, maybe even higher than that. Caldwell surely can't get blown out though.

I agree with the logic here, and see that Caldwell is being slighted because of their supposed quality of wins. However, scheduling N. Hardin, Henderson Co, Franklin-Simpson, and Paducah Tilghman are all good wins. I am not sure they have to beat Mayfield, as they are arguably the best team out of the lower three or four classes, maybe even higher than that. Caldwell surely can't get blown out though.

 

Not sure I agree with that.. Mayfield is a very good team..but right now I would put Central, Belfry, Boyle, LexCath, Johnson Central, South Warren, and maybe even Ashland ahead of them.

 

At the least I would consider Mayfield a "PUSH" to the top 4 teams in 3A and if Caldwell cannot beat Mayfield or play them as equals I think that will say a lot.

 

Caldwell does have several "good" wins in the teams you listed..the problem is the 4 teams ahead of them have good wins and better wins.

 

Using Calpreps:

1. Central vs. #203 St. Xavier

2. LexCath vs. #707 Boyle County

3. Central vs. #1627 Christian Acad. Louisville

4. Boyle County vs. #1656 Central Hardin

5. Belfry vs. #1917 Knoxville Catholic

6. Boyle vs. #2544 Danville

7. Caldwell vs. #2789 Tilghman

8. Belfry vs. #2865 Tates Creek

9. LexCath vs. #3252 Madison Central

10. Belfry vs. #3384 Pikeville

11. Boyle vs. #3602 Bell County

12. LexCath vs. #3645 CovCath

13. Boyle vs. #3822 Collins

14. Belfry vs. #3942 NewCath

15. Belfry vs. #4009 Lawrence County

 

Caldwell only has one of the Top 15 wins of that group, and none of the Top 5 wins.

 

FWIW:

 

Judging wins only for those Top 5 teams

Belfry 5 of the Top 15 wins (5, 8, 10,14,15)

Boyle 4 of the Top 15 wins (4, 6, 11, 13)

LexCath 2 of the Top 15 wins (2, 12)

Central 2 of he Top 15 wins (1, 3)

Caldwell 1 of the Top 15 wins (7)