With the season quickly approaching, I thought I'd post this little chart I saw the other day for those of us who expect maybe just a little too much from these kids: Here's the real chances of reaching whatever level we believe they can.

 

Just a note.... I don't believe that graphic includes NAIA which could adsorb some more student athletes. But I do love the message the NCAA is trying to pass along.

I wonder if the % given for NCAA to professional includes leagues in other countries of just the NBA. I like the message the chart is giving of stressing academics and being realistic, but I hate when it's used to squash a child's dreams. My son had a 6th grade teacher who told his entire class that no one in the room would ever be a professional athlete and I think that's just wrong. We tell kids that anyone can grow up to be POTUS, but what are the odds on that?

This chart should be handed out at every aau and varsity basketball game to adults over 21 at the ticket booth.

This chart should be handed out at every aau and varsity basketball game to adults over 21 at the ticket booth.

 

And especially to children over 40.

If it was handed out, the reaction from many would be... so I have a chance.

I wonder if the % given for NCAA to professional includes leagues in other countries of just the NBA. I like the message the chart is giving of stressing academics and being realistic, but I hate when it's used to squash a child's dreams. My son had a 6th grade teacher who told his entire class that no one in the room would ever be a professional athlete and I think that's just wrong. We tell kids that anyone can grow up to be POTUS, but what are the odds on that?

 

Odds are, that 6th-grade teacher was totally correct.

 

I'm of the opinion that parents spend far too much money chasing the pipe dream of pro sports — or even collegiate sports, for that matter — that it's far more useful for that kid's long-term success as a human being that we encourage POTUS to be their real goal. At least if they fail at that, they'll have real-world useful skills after they graduate from college.

There are some subtleties to these statistics.

 

There is a built-in positional bias. The overwhelming majority of high school players are guards, skewing the pool of available players that way. However, the college coaches would like to have 50% of their roster in forwards and centers, skewing the selection group in the other direction. The net result is that guards have even worse outcomes than the numbers shown by the NCAA but the forwards have results about 3 times better than indicated.

 

The real determinant variable underlying this is height. A recent article in the ESPN Magazine used statistical info to approximate numbers of NBA-age males in the USA by height. Couldn’t find the mag for this response, but their number of NBA-age males over 6’ 10 ½ “ in the general population was about 680, with 69 currently playing in the NBA, an outcome greater than 10%. The next level, maybe 6-8 ½ thru 6-10, dropped steeply but still had a good number. By the time you got to the shorter heights there were 5 or 6 zeroes after the decimal point as a fraction of 1 percent, a function of millions of people fitting the statistical category for average heights.

 

Another uncharted variable is aspiration level. Nearly every 5th grade player might dream of the NBA, but year by year the number that even wants to try to play in college drops dramatically. The only meaningful statistic, which is unmeasured, is the percentage that plays at the next level, relative to the number that seriously wants to do so upon high school graduation. In other words, of the ones that still have the dream, how many can have the reality?

 

My half-hearted research indicates more than 10% of Kentucky’s graduating high-school senior basketball players will join college basketball teams (NCAA+NAIA+Juco) and the percentage for kids 6-6 and taller is much higher. This probably represents the majority of kids who really want to play. Most seniors with a burning desire to play in college can have the opportunity if they initiate contacts with the schools, and will accept NAIA-2 or D3 ball. Once they get there, the fallout the first two years is really high, with playing time, money, social issues, and academics the big torpedoes.

 

It is a very realistic goal for a tall high school player or solid guard to focus on obtaining a fractional scholarship at the NAIA or even D2 level to contribute to their college funding. It is also a worthwhile goal to push your academics to get as much academic money as possible at a D3, and play ball just for enjoyment and the benefits it offers in terms of having a ready-made positive-impact social group of teammates when you first walk on campus.

I've coached 4 kids who are 6'8 or taller. All 4 are D1.

I've coached 4 kids who are 6'8 or taller. All 4 are D1.

 

Still takes coaching, congrats on a job well done. Strong evidence of value of AAU where players can pick a coach they have confidence in. Also why I'm sympathetic when a kid wants to change schools.

Want your child to ball? Marry tall. That is all.

So if your child wants to play any sport; constantly remind them that they are only gonna be a marginal athlete. Makes little sense, kids that play sports are usually competitors....teach them to play and work hard at their craft. If hard work and dedication doesn't pay off with a college opportunity; I'm sure they've gained something from competing on a team. Teamwork, committment, dedication, etc etc etc. Most kids I've come in contact with don't have aspirations of the NBA, most want to go to college at some level and continue to play the sport they love. IMO

Sometimes there's a fine line between who makes, and who doesn't. Lack of talent, and athleticism was all that stopped me from having a 7 or 8 figure sports income.........

Set your goals high, regardless of what you are doing. That should be the message. That said, as was mentioned, if you shoot to be the president (of this country, a company, etc), and you fall short, odds are you're still going to land in a great place. Unfortunately, if you fall short in basketball and the playing days are over, who knows?

 

Point being that kids need to be taught priorities, perspective and to be well-rounded. Sports can adtually help with this if they aren't the end-all for the players (or the parents...).