No way this was a blind draw and only 4 district have to suffer. Come on KHSAA you can lie better than that.

Would it be that unreasonable to have a rotation excluding the 2 extreme groups on each end of the state and avoid a 1/2 vs. 7/8 travel situation?

 

That would give a nice variety of 5 different matchups with out forcing the really killer trips.

 

You could argue its technically not equitable b/c 1/2 doesnt have to play 7/8 but I have no idea which teams this effects or where the strengths are in each class. thats how things should be decided anyway - with out predetermining who is where IMO

 

Woody Jr

Would it be that unreasonable to have a rotation excluding the 2 extreme groups on each end of the state and avoid a 1/2 vs. 7/8 travel situation?

 

That would give a nice variety of 5 different matchups with out forcing the really killer trips.

 

You could argue its technically not equitable b/c 1/2 doesnt have to play 7/8 but I have no idea which teams this effects or where the strengths are in each class. thats how things should be decided anyway - with out predetermining who is where IMO

 

Woody Jr

Don't know.

 

The point is that the KHSAA has represented to the public that this was a "blind draw", a notion many find to be laughable.

No way this was a blind draw and only 4 district have to suffer. Come on KHSAA you can lie better than that.

I think it's called fraud.

In 2A this year you have 3-5 and 4-6 in the third round. If they are both #1 seeds to advance to that point, there will have to be a fair way to decide who hosts. I'm not sure what an objective way to do that will be.

 

Here's my best guess:

 

Odd numbered regions host in odd years, even numbered regions in even years.

 

In the event that the region numbers are the same (odd v odd, even v even), then it reverts to the district number. Odd district in odd years, even district in even years.

 

If the district numbers are the same as well, which can only happen in the even of District 1 vs. District 5 or District 4 vs. District 8,

 

The universe implodes!

By the way, the blind draw has already been done for 2007-2010 as well. Wouldn't you know it, they're the same draw in every case......

Leatherneck, I certainly don't think "the fix is in" like some other posters seem to, but I think the biggest problem with this change is that it came suddenly and with very little, if any, advance knowledge. This wasn't a proposal that came to a vote by the Delegate Assembly ... it looks like an end-around (to turn a football phrase) by the football advisory board to accommodate some complaints by member schools.

 

Then the draw comes out so nearly identical to the geographic-based pairings used in the pasyt, with one little twist ... Trinity and St. Xavier, the two football powers that draw much of this public-private rancor, put together in a relatively early-round matchup instead of their customary meeting in the state finals.

 

It just looks fishy. I think you have to acknowledge that.

 

Having the first two games be within the district was not to the best of my knowledge recommended by the coaches advisory committee. From what I was told and to the best of my knowledge, that was an idea of the KHSAA to cut down on travel and costs in the first two rounds and to help with the gates at the first two games. No doubt, that the bracket rotation in the third round could increase travel in certain years. The idea of mixing up the third round brackets so teams don't always have to play the same teams to get to the finals is an idea that was supported by the advisory committee I THINK. But its an idea that superintendents and principals have also endorsed for years. They didn't like the idea of always being eliminated by the Beechwoods, Maysvilles, Highlands, Trinitys and Xs each and every year. Lest I upset someone on the football coaches advisory committee, I don't think any of them requested a blind draw or that the draw be done by a KHSAA employee in private. But if what I was told is true, all of the BOC members with the exception of Sexton trusted the integrity of the KHSAA employee who did the draw (if not, they shouldn't allow the employee to work for them. I know this, if I was the employee and they questioned my integrity in the draw, I'd tell them either to trust me, or they better find a new employee as I would quit and maybe punch someone in the mouth on my way out the door. If you question my integrity, you better be able to back it up or be ready to pick yourself up off the floor).

 

The tournament rules do not have to be approved by the delegates or the schools as I understand it. Those rules are totally within the control of the BOC, so that's why it wasn't approved by a vote of the delegates for what its worth.

 

I have a call into the KHSAA, but as you might imagine, the lines have been tied up most of the day:D

 

As to the fishy part about X and T playing one another, I can agree that it looks fishy. I guess the reason my boxers are not in a bunch about that is the admin folks at X and T(and I think the coaches there also) don't have a problem playing each other earlier in the playoffs since it doesn't matter whether the lose in the third, fourth or fifth round to the other, particularly if playing one another earlier or for that matter being in the same district will lessen some of the venom from the public schools. All that matters to X and T is that they wouldn't have won the state championship. Not winning the state championship is a failure to these types of winning programs regardless of whether you are eliminated in an earlier round or you lose in the championship game. Their goal is to win state. Not to make it to state.

Any math guys on here that could figure the odds out?

 

I'm not mathemagician, but I think this is right:

 

You start with the odds of picking 1 vs. 2: 1/7

Now it goes to 3 vs. 4: (1 & 2 are removed from possibilities, leaving) 1/5

5 vs. 6: (same process) 1/3

7 vs. 8: 1/1

 

Multiply probabilities to get: 0.00952 or .952% chance that one of the classes ends up with the same format as before.

 

Odds of it happening twice (which it "did"): 0.0000907 or .00907%.

 

So if my calculations are right, we've witnessed something that had a 1 in 11,025 chance of occuring. The very first time they ever did it. SURRRRRRRE.

I'm not mathemagician, but I think this is right:

 

You start with the odds of picking 1 vs. 2: 1/7

Now it goes to 3 vs. 4: (1 & 2 are removed from possibilities, leaving) 1/5

5 vs. 6: (same process) 1/3

7 vs. 8: 1/1

 

Multiply probabilities to get: 0.00952 or .952% chance that one of the classes ends up with the same format as before.

 

Odds of it happening twice (which it "did"): 0.0000907 or .00907%.

 

So if my calculations are right, we've witnessed something that had a 1 in 11,025 chance of occuring. The very first time they ever did it. SURRRRRRRE.

I think it may be higher because you have to account for the winner of the 1-2 game playing the 3-4 winner and 5-6 playing 7-8, i.e. the 1-2 winner doesn't play the 7-8 winner. Thoughts?

We don't actually know how that works yet, as far as I know. It hasn't been determined whether 1-2 winner will face 3-4 winner as before. It's possible that that too will be a draw. If you added that to it, well, yeah, it's probably higher.

We don't actually know how that works yet, as far as I know. It hasn't been determined whether 1-2 winner will face 3-4 winner as before. It's possible that that too will be a draw. If you added that to it, well, yeah, it's probably higher.

What about the odds that the KHSAA drew 1 to play 2 and 7 to play 8 four times in a row? Would that be 1/7 x 1/7 x 1/7 x 1/7 x 1/5 x 1/5 x 1/5 x 1/5 x 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4 x 1/4, or 1 in 384,160,000?:scared:

 

FYI Powerball odds are 1 in 146,107,962.

In 2A this year you have 3-5 and 4-6 in the third round. If they are both #1 seeds to advance to that point, there will have to be a fair way to decide who hosts. I'm not sure what an objective way to do that will be.

 

 

Toots, I just spoke with someone at the KHSAA and they have told me they realize there is a problem in the AA class for the reason you stated. That person was not sure at that time how it would be resolved but it is being looked into and will be discussed at the BOC's next meeting. Wish I had more, but that's all I learned.

I'm not mathemagician, but I think this is right:

 

You start with the odds of picking 1 vs. 2: 1/7

Now it goes to 3 vs. 4: (1 & 2 are removed from possibilities, leaving) 1/5

5 vs. 6: (same process) 1/3

7 vs. 8: 1/1

 

Multiply probabilities to get: 0.00952 or .952% chance that one of the classes ends up with the same format as before.

 

Odds of it happening twice (which it "did"): 0.0000907 or .00907%.

 

So if my calculations are right, we've witnessed something that had a 1 in 11,025 chance of occuring. The very first time they ever did it. SURRRRRRRE.

I agree with the 1/7 odds on picking 1 and 2. I think the total odds may be higher because you have to pick #3 out of the bag (1/6) and then #4 (1/5) and then #5 (1/4) and then #6 (1/3) and then #7 and 8 (1/1)...twice in a row.

 

Or a 1 in 6,350,400 shot.

Toots, I just spoke with someone at the KHSAA and they have told me they realize there is a problem in the AA class for the reason you stated. That person was not sure at that time how it would be resolved but it is being looked into and will be discussed at the BOC's next meeting. Wish I had more, but that's all I learned.

 

So the KHSAA didn't actually think this through? Amazing!

Having the first two games be within the district was not to the best of my knowledge recommended by the coaches advisory committee. From what I was told and to the best of my knowledge, that was an idea of the KHSAA to cut down on travel and costs in the first two rounds and to help with the gates at the first two games.

Maybe so, but I suspect that's where the idea was first generated. I keep hearing coaches complain about lengthy road trips in the first round of the playoffs. Sorry, guys, that's the penalty for not finishing first or second in your district ... some of us feel those teams shouldn't be in the postseason anyway.

No doubt, that the bracket rotation in the third round could increase travel in certain years. The idea of mixing up the third round brackets so teams don't always have to play the same teams to get to the finals is an idea that was supported by the advisory committee I THINK. But its an idea that superintendents and principals have also endorsed for years. They didn't like the idea of always being eliminated by the Beechwoods, Maysvilles, Highlands, Trinitys and Xs each and every year.

I like the idea of a blind draw for the quarterfinals myself ... I actually liked it when there was a blind draw for the semifinals in 1991.

 

But the reason you give, in my opinion, is part of the problem. We have too many schools and administrators that want to complain about the successful programs being successful and wringing their hands because they haven't been able to beat them. That is just as plentiful in the lower classes as it is with Trinity and St. Xavier in 4A.

 

My response? That's tough ... get to work.

But if what I was told is true, all of the BOC members with the exception of Sexton trusted the integrity of the KHSAA employee who did the draw

Sexton, it seems, is just that kind of guy ... :lol:

The tournament rules do not have to be approved by the delegates or the schools as I understand it. Those rules are totally within the control of the BOC, so that's why it wasn't approved by a vote of the delegates for what its worth.

I understand that to be the case ... didn't mean to imply, if I did, that it should have been subject to a Delegate Assembly vote.

 

It's just that this change came out of nowhere ... no advance notice, not even a mention that it was being considered. When things are done so quickly and in such secrecy, it automatically prompts skepticism.

As to the fishy part about X and T playing one another, I can agree that it looks fishy.

I don't have a problem with it. In a blind draw, that's going to happen sometimes. But the fact that two of the four classes are matched up the same way they've always been and that Trinity and St. Xavier are matched up early, given the events of the last year ... well, it looks bad. Really bad.