Brady: best draft pick ever or just dumb luck?

[oldgrappler]

Bill Belichick is often credited with being a genius. His Patriots picked Tom Brady in the 6th round of the 2000 draft. I read this quote: "many analysts have called Brady the best NFL draft pick of all time." Do you agree, why or why not?

 

I disagree if by "best" you mean the smartest draft pick ever or the one that resulted from the best analysis of talent.

 

Here's why. It is obvious that the Patriots did not expect a lot of Brady. They did not pick him until their supplemental pick in the 6th round. 198 players were picked before him. Perhaps his combine performance contributed to the low expectations the entire league had of Brady, including Belichick (see other thread). Who would allow a franchise quarterback to slip to the 6th round? Who would let 198 other players be picked ahead of a 4 time Super Bowl winning quarterback? The answer is NOBODY, if they knew it. If they knew Brady was going to be as good as he is, then New England would have picked him with their very first pick. Heck, they would have traded up to #1 to get him. That's why I think it is wrong to say "Brady was the best draft pick of all time." Nah, he was the luckiest pick of all time because a player that they had valued as a 6th rounder turned out to be a blue chipper.

 

What do you think?

[rockmom]

Bill Belichick is often credited with being a genius. His Patriots picked Tom Brady in the 6th round of the 2000 draft. I read this quote: "many analysts have called Brady the best NFL draft pick of all time." Do you agree, why or why not?

 

I disagree if by "best" you mean the smartest draft pick ever or the one that resulted from the best analysis of talent.

 

Here's why. It is obvious that the Patriots did not expect a lot of Brady. They did not pick him until their supplemental pick in the 6th round. 198 players were picked before him. Perhaps his combine performance contributed to the low expectations the entire league had of Brady, including Belichick (see other thread). Who would allow a franchise quarterback to slip to the 6th round? Who would let 198 other players be picked ahead of a 4 time Super Bowl winning quarterback? The answer is NOBODY, if they knew it. If they knew Brady was going to be as good as he is, then New England would have picked him with their very first pick. Heck, they would have traded up to #1 to get him. That's why I think it is wrong to say "Brady was the best draft pick of all time." Nah, he was the luckiest pick of all time because a player that they had valued as a 6th rounder turned out to be a blue chipper.

 

What do you think?

 

Brady is the best value of a draft pick of all time.

[Bengal Maniac]

I believe you evaluate draft picks way into their career, not the moment they are picked. In terms of value for a pick he is probably the best pick ever for his value and importance to a franchise.

 

No way anyone knew at the time he would be as good as he has been, that is obvious. That's the NFL Draft. It is a a calculated, best guess, with the mountains of info you have. Been lots of misses and those overlooked.

[75center]

Luck? Sure. But that doesn't mean it was not the best pick ever. They are not mutually exclusive terms. Smartest pick ever would be very tough to determine.

[UKMustangFan]

Meet Tom Brady's First Believer

[UKMustangFan]

Luck? Sure. But that doesn't mean it was not the best pick ever. They are not mutually exclusive terms. Smartest pick ever would be very tough to determine.

 

I was just getting ready to post, why can't it be both?

[oldgrappler]

I'll give you best value. Just like the person who goes to a yard sale and buys a bucket of junk for a couple of bucks and then later finds out one of the items in the bucket it is actually a rare and valuable item. They didn't buy it thinking this, but as it turns out, it was a good buy. That's luck.

 

Same with Brady. Sure, New England looks smart now but the truth is their talent evaluators don't deserve any credit for making a good pick. In fact, they misjudged Brady, along with everyone else in the NFL. He was much better than the place he was picked.

[HoopsLady]

Belichek always seems to trade down for lower round picks. He drafts for volume, not heralded high pick talent. He understands that by drafting in volume, you are more likely to find good players that can help you, with out the expectations and costs of a high round pick.

[UKMustangFan]

I'll give you best value. Just like the person who goes to a yard sale and buys a bucket of junk for a couple of bucks and then later finds out one of the items in the bucket it is actually a rare and valuable item. They didn't buy it thinking this, but as it turns out, it was a good buy. That's luck.

 

Same with Brady. Sure, New England looks smart now but the truth is their talent evaluators don't deserve any credit for making a good pick. In fact, they misjudged Brady, along with everyone else in the NFL. He was much better than the place he was picked.

 

Did you even read the article I posted?

 

Dick appreciated Brady's competitive desire and talent for pulling Michigan from the brink of defeat. Belichick's quarterbacks coach told Pam he thought he'd found another Joe Montana or Brett Favre. "Twenty years from now," Dick told his wife, "people will know the name Tom Brady."

[sweet16]

Both

[ggclfan]

Meet Tom Brady's First Believer

 

Never knew of Rehbein or this story. Really cool...thanks for sharing it UKM

[PurplePride92]

Dumb luck. If the Pats were that sold on Brady they wouldn't have waited until the 6th round to grab him. They had no clue they were getting the likely greatest QB to ever play the game when they drafted him.

[ggclfan]

Dumb luck. If the Pats were that sold on Brady they wouldn't have waited until the 6th round to grab him. They had no clue they were getting the likely greatest QB to ever play the game when they drafted him.

 

TOTALLY AGREE!

[mcpapa]

I'll give you best value. Just like the person who goes to a yard sale and buys a bucket of junk for a couple of bucks and then later finds out one of the items in the bucket it is actually a rare and valuable item. They didn't buy it thinking this, but as it turns out, it was a good buy. That's luck.

 

Same with Brady. Sure, New England looks smart now but the truth is their talent evaluators don't deserve any credit for making a good pick. In fact, they misjudged Brady, along with everyone else in the NFL. He was much better than the place he was picked.

 

You've been looking over my shoulder...

[mcpapa]

Dumb luck. If the Pats were that sold on Brady they wouldn't have waited until the 6th round to grab him. They had no clue they were getting the likely greatest QB to ever play the game when they drafted him.

 

 

This.

 

Did it turn out to be perhaps the greatest value pick of all time? Very possibly, but it was luck. No way you go into a draft thinking. "This is the guy who's gonna take us to the Promised Land and keep us there for two decades. Let's roll the dice and see if he drops to #199."