........I'm not a sports gambler, but I wouldn't touch this game with a yard stick.

 

Manning and the Broncos could EASILY be up four or five touchdowns at half. I don't think it's ridiculous at all to take the Broncos to cover.

 

I can see it going either way really. If the Jaguars want to keep their starters in and try to get in rhythm (remember Gabbert and Blackmon are just now healthy and off suspension), then I could see them making it close enough just because they play garbage minutes and get a TD or two. I don't like trying to pick games like this with garbage time because so many things factor into it. I could definitely see the Broncos winning 45-14. I could also see them winning 40-14. Either way, they win and win big, but one covers and the other doesn't.

 

The highest spread total before this was the Steelers vs. Buccaneers back when the Bucs were awful and went winless during that season, and the Steelers covered.

If they sign Tebow, does the line flip?

I think there is motivation for the Broncos to try to cover this amount of a spread just because it has never been done before. The purists will say that a win is all that matters. Haha, it matters...they want to reward the fans who will bet on them and there is a matter of pride involved. Who in Denver wants to hear, "Well, you guys are still undefeated, but you couldn't cover the spread against the Jags....the Jags???"

Not a betting guy, so can someone help me out. You always hear about the line changing based upon where the money is going...so, if people start taking the Broncos with it being at 28...do the bookies increase the margin in order to get some action on the Jags? Could this be 30+ by the time it's all said and done?

I think there is motivation for the Broncos to try to cover this amount of a spread just because it has never been done before.

 

Good point, that is way cooler than keeping your guys healthy for a long run to the Super Bowl. If John Fox is concerned about keeping his guys out there to cover a 4-TD spread "because it has never been done before" he should be fired. Given Peyton's track-record of disappointing post-season runs, and being two years removed from serious neck surgery, I'm pretty sure him being in tip-top shape in January should be priority #1.

...........

 

FYI, the line is down to 26.5 at this point. 61% of wagers made on this game to date have laid the points, so it could certainly bounce back the other direction.

Good point, that is way cooler than keeping your guys healthy for a long run to the Super Bowl. If John Fox is concerned about keeping his guys out there to cover a 4-TD spread "because it has never been done before" he should be fired. Given Peyton's track-record of disappointing post-season runs, and being two years removed from serious neck surgery, I'm pretty sure him being in tip-top shape in January should be priority #1.

 

Sarcasm intended, maybe? I think they do it easily without it getting to the point where they worry about covering the spread. They have a lot of talent on that team, not just Manning. Fox and his staff will see early in the game what kind of push the Jags on getting on their rush. Manning will play at least the first half. I think the Broncos cover even with a backup QB. They won't replace all their starters. 28 seems to be that magic number anyway when coaches think about putting in all backups and that is usually in the 2nd half.

Sarcasm intended, maybe? I think they do it easily without it getting to the point where they worry about covering the spread. They have a lot of talent on that team, not just Manning. Fox and his staff will see early in the game what kind of push the Jags on getting on their rush. Manning will play at least the first half. I think the Broncos cover even with a backup QB. They won't replace all their starters. 28 seems to be that magic number anyway when coaches think about putting in all backups and that is usually in the 2nd half.

 

Yes, I thought I was laying it on pretty thick in that opening salvo. Put me firmly in the camp that I don't think John Fox and his coaching staff care one iota about the spread.

 

With so many games between college and the NFL to gamble your (not you, individually Pete, but plural) money on, I don't know why you'd even want to mess with this game.

Not a betting guy, so can someone help me out. You always hear about the line changing based upon where the money is going...so, if people start taking the Broncos with it being at 28...do the bookies increase the margin in order to get some action on the Jags? Could this be 30+ by the time it's all said and done?

 

The objective of a sports book/bookie is to get as many bets on each side as possible. They make their money from 'juice' or a set cut of the pot (usually around 5 to 10 cents on each dollar that is bet, but it can be as high as 30 cents when the money is still coming in on the favorite but hasn't reached the point to bump the line up another point or half point).

 

Here's a simple example:

 

You run a Las Vegas casino. Your sports experts set the line at Team A over Team B by 2.5 points. Person 1 walks in and bets $100 on Team A. You move the line to Team A by 3.5 points. Person 2 walks in and bets $100 on Team B. Assume all 'juice' is 10%, which means Persons 1 and 2 have to bet $110 to win $100.

 

The Outcomes:

Team A wins by 3 or more:

Person 1 wins $100, Person 2 loses $110, Casino wins $10.

 

Team A wins by 2 or less:

Person 1 loses $110, Person 2 loses $110, Casino wins $220.

 

Team B wins:

Person 1 loses $110, Person 2 wins $100, Casino wins $10

 

 

 

To complicate it some, consider how some people might see big line movements and it makes them want to make a bet. This is kind of what's happening in this case if the line has moved in one direction considering the public awareness of this game just because it's historical.

 

Think about it like this:

Place X is in Las Vegas and has a $1 million purse on the game between Team 1 and Team 2, $500K on each team, and the game is a 'pick', meaning you just pick it straight up. The $500K in bets on each side has consisted of equal bets from thousands of people making small $25 bets.

 

Harry Highroller comes in and places a $300K bet on Team 1. This is going to cause the line to move because it's now an 8:5 ratio in Team 1's favor as far as money goes, meaning the casino will lose money if Team 1 wins.

 

They want to even this out, but some people see the line shift a great deal all of a sudden on a big money bet and assume that a fix is in and/or someone knows something they don't, and then follow suit.

 

The problem with that is, say the line has went to Team 1 being favored by 4.5 points. Jim and John come in at the same time and place $100K bets on Team 1 at -4.5, meaning Team 1 has to win by 5 for them to win.

 

Now, before the 'juice' is factored in:

Scenario 1: If Team 1 wins by 5+, the casino will lose $500K.

Scenario 2: If Team 1 wins by 4 or less, the casino will lose $100K.

Scenario 3: If Team 2 wins, the casino will win $500K.

 

Just assuming that the juice is 10% for all of the transactions (which it probably would not be), this means that in:

 

Scenario 1: the casino gets $50K additional from the loser's juice, meaning they just lost $450K.

 

Scenario 2: the casino gets $70K additional from the loser's juice, meaning they just lost $30K.

 

Scenario 3: the casino gets $100K additional from the loser's juice, meaning they won $600K.

 

 

 

That's a very basic, oversimplified breakdown of how it works. The lines would move according to algorithms where the casino hedges their bets in a way that allows them to minimize risk and maximize profits. And the values would be different, but I wanted to use even, rounded numbers to try and make it easier to illustrate.

 

Hope I didn't confuse you with it or anything, and I'd be happy to try and explain if something doesn't make sense.

Edited October 8, 201312 yr by JokersWild24

I would take this bet if it was at -38, MAYBE even -48.

I would take this bet if it was at -38, MAYBE even -48.

 

Give me Jacksonville and 38 and name the amount.

Give me Jacksonville and 38 and name the amount.

 

I'll take it . I don't think anyone here realizes how BAD this Jacksonville team is. I have watched every single play for them this year. If this team can keep within 3 TD's of any team in the league I will be highly impressed. No offensive line, no QB, a broken RB, it spells terrible.

I see it has dropped to about 26.5, several of you need to put your money where your mouth is. And for the record I don't gamble on NFL games.

I'll take it . I don't think anyone here realizes how BAD this Jacksonville team is. I have watched every single play for them this year. If this team can keep within 3 TD's of any team in the league I will be highly impressed. No offensive line, no QB, a broken RB, it spells terrible.

 

They've already done that in 2 of their 5 games this season.

I'll take it . I don't think anyone here realizes how BAD this Jacksonville team is. I have watched every single play for them this year. If this team can keep within 3 TD's of any team in the league I will be highly impressed. No offensive line, no QB, a broken RB, it spells terrible.

 

I have Jax and 38...name the amount. I may be anonymous on here, but TheGuru can tell you I'm good for it. I don't need them to stay within 3 TD's....I need them to stay within 6.