Boo, Hiss. I wouldn't be too confident about that. This is baseball and anything can happen in a one and out scenario. Lest you forget last year that the worst team to make the tourney made it to within one game of winning it.

 

Obviously anything can happen.

Sorry if I missed this in a different thread...what are the district matchups for the regional tournament? Game dates and times?

I have Ryle and NCC as the teams to beat.

 

Conner's promising season has taken a turn for the worse. Highlands has been struggling down the stretch.(yes I know they beat Ryle)

 

Beechwood's the strongest team from the 35th imo and can do some damage in the Regional IF they make it . Dixie's been playing real well heading into the post season winning 8 out of their last 9.

 

Going to be a fun tournament....lots of parity with Ryle being a slight favorite at the top.

I have Ryle and NCC as the teams to beat.

 

Conner's promising season has taken a turn for the worse. Highlands has been struggling down the stretch.(yes I know they beat Ryle)

 

Beechwood's the strongest team from the 35th imo and can do some damage in the Regional IF they make it . Dixie's been playing real well heading into the post season winning 8 out of their last 9.

 

Going to be a fun tournament....lots of parity with Ryle being a slight favorite at the top.

 

Yes and Highlands made the regional finals last year with a losing record. It hardly matters how a team has been playing as long as everybody is healthy, I see now reason why they can't sneak in there again this year. A whole lot of experience coming back this year and one the masters of small ball in coach Baioni. Go Birds!

NCC would be my pick. Ryle would be my number two choice if they make it to the region as they are very solid and deep but you can only put nine on the field at once. I look for Cooper, now that all players are back, to give Ryle a very good test tonight. Should be a very fun two weeks of baseball.

Yes and Highlands made the regional finals last year with a losing record. It hardly matters how a team has been playing as long as everybody is healthy, I see now reason why they can't sneak in there again this year. A whole lot of experience coming back this year and one the masters of small ball in coach Baioni. Go Birds!

 

I disagree completely. It has a lot to do with how a team is playing. A team that is on, lets say, a 9-2 run (Highlands last year) heading into the postseason has a better chance to go further than a team on a 2-9 run. If you aren't playing well, the confidence and energy levels drop plus kids start trying to force it which normally back fires.

 

Having everyone healthy is important but how a team plays down the stretch in preparation for the postseason is VERY VERY important and cannot be understated.

Teams that will make the regional - Cov Cath, Dixie, New Cath, Highlands.

 

Pitching wins the tough games. The team with the better pitcher on the mound will win 90% of the time. Here is how I see the in doubt match-ups:

 

Ryle - Cooper ... I am sure Dunn will be on the mound so that gives Cooper a chance for the upset. Ryle has the best offense in N. Ky. I see Ryle getting enough runs to pullout the win.

 

St. Henry - Lloyd ... If Kuebbing is able to take the mound, I go with St. Henry. If not, it is a toss up, but I will still go with St. Henry.

 

Boone County - Conner ... Conner's senior class has done a lot of winning this year in various sports. I believe that will carry over and they will put together a winning effort.

 

Beechwood - Holy Cross ... If Tiberi is able to pitch, this will be a battle. I see the Tigers getting the win behind Suchanek. The big variable here is youth. When you are counting on freshmen as much as Beechwood is, you hope they can handle the tournament pressure. However, Beechwood's freshmenare different. They have played in big tournaments with their summer teams so I don't think they will feel pressure like other freshmen.

^ Cooper has been playing better down the stretch. Other than the last game Saturday where they played all reserves other than two starters for two innings, they have went 7-3 with all three loses being by one run each.

Here is something to consider. Teams play different schedules and competition so you have to factor that in for certain teams, but here are the 9th region teams ranked by run differential:

 

1. Ryle ............... +157

2. Beechwood ..... +98

3. New Cath ....... +60

4. Conner .......... +55

5. Holy Cross ..... +48

6. Cov Cath ....... +31

7. Highlands ...... +28

8. Dixie Heights .. +27

9. Lloyd ............. +18

10. Boone Co. .... +12

11. Cooper ......... -2

12. St. Henry ..... -12

13. Ludlow ........ -34

14. Villa Madonna.. -43

15. Bellevue ....... -54

16. Dayton ........ -77

17. Holmes ........ -113

18. Newport ...... -131

^ Cooper has been playing better down the stretch. Other than the last game Saturday where they played all reserves other than two starters for two innings, they have went 7-3 with all three loses being by one run each.

 

If Cooper was playing Conner or Boone, I would pick them with Dunn pitching. But they are facing the clear favorite to win the region and the best offensive team in the region. Being the #4 seed has doomed them IMO, even with Dunn on the mound.

Here is something to consider. Teams play different schedules and competition so you have to factor that in for certain teams, but here are the 9th region teams ranked by run differential:

 

1. Ryle ............... +157

2. Beechwood ..... +98

3. New Cath ....... +60

4. Conner .......... +55

5. Holy Cross ..... +48

6. Cov Cath ....... +31

7. Highlands ...... +28

8. Dixie Heights .. +27

9. Lloyd ............. +18

10. Boone Co. .... +12

11. Cooper ......... -2

12. St. Henry ..... -12

13. Ludlow ........ -34

14. Villa Madonna.. -43

15. Bellevue ....... -54

16. Dayton ........ -77

17. Holmes ........ -113

18. Newport ...... -131

 

Nice information.

 

I won't claim that Ryle has played the toughest schedule in NKY, but am certain they've played one of the toughest, so that fact that they are sitting on top of this stat by such a large margin is very impressive.

If Cooper was playing Conner or Boone, I would pick them with Dunn pitching. But they are facing the clear favorite to win the region and the best offensive team in the region. Being the #4 seed has doomed them IMO, even with Dunn on the mound.

 

That, and if I'm not mistaken, Dunn has had issues going deep into games this year, hasn't he? I believe in the earlier Cooper-Ryle matchup, Dunn held them in check for 5 innings before things exploded in the 6th and Ryle took it to the Cooper relievers. Don't see another run-rule happening here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar re-occurence of the events of that past game (close for a while, then Ryle jumps out to sizeable lead).

^His last outing was a complete game versus St Henry and other times could have gone longer if needed. Lawhorn has done very well this year and will be ready to relieve.

 

The run differential shows, imo, the quality depth of Ryle. When other teams get to pitchers 3-7, they struggle where Ryle is still strong.

^Lawhorn couldn't relieve the first time against Ryle because they had the Boone seed game the next day, which was not a good make-up date in my opinion.

Teams that will make the regional - Cov Cath, Dixie, New Cath, Highlands.

 

Pitching wins the tough games. The team with the better pitcher on the mound will win 90% of the time. Here is how I see the in doubt match-ups:

 

Ryle - Cooper ... I am sure Dunn will be on the mound so that gives Cooper a chance for the upset. Ryle has the best offense in N. Ky. I see Ryle getting enough runs to pullout the win.

 

St. Henry - Lloyd ... If Kuebbing is able to take the mound, I go with St. Henry. If not, it is a toss up, but I will still go with St. Henry.

 

Boone County - Conner ... Conner's senior class has done a lot of winning this year in various sports. I believe that will carry over and they will put together a winning effort.

 

Beechwood - Holy Cross ... If Tiberi is able to pitch, this will be a battle. I see the Tigers getting the win behind Suchanek. The big variable here is youth. When you are counting on freshmen as much as Beechwood is, you hope they can handle the tournament pressure. However, Beechwood's freshmenare different. They have played in big tournaments with their summer teams so I don't think they will feel pressure like other freshmen.

 

I may agree with your pick but I'm not sure how this plays a factor into the game.