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Dave Cantrall's Rating the State 3A

Featured Replies

Breathitt Co. has played nobody yet and schedule doesn't have a good, quality opponent above 1a on it.....Belfry has already played Henry Clay and have several quality opponents left on their schedule...Belfry is better now and will be better when Breathitt goes to Belfry for Regional finals.....

 

But they lost big to Henry Clay. Even if they stacked up yards, they didn't put up points. That's a big factor for right now. I'm not a Belfry basher but even Watusi would agree that right now Belfry hasn't earned to be above Breathitt.

^What he said.

 

 

nikeman49, Belfry very well might be better than Breathitt come November, I hope they are. But this week's rankings are dealing with the here and now. I personally think if the Pirate team we watched this week faced Breathitt this week that Breathitt would be the favorite. Belfry is good, but they have a ways to go yet. Luckily one of my favorite things about being a Belfry fan is watching them grow and progress over the course of the season.

 

Of course this is subjective, as rankings are sometimes more art than science, especially this early in the season. You are right Breathitt's schedule gives us very little barometer on their strength. My assessment of Breathitt is based on how good they were at the end of last season and knowing how many of those same players return, plus add in Shouse and Cox to the mix. I think they will be very scary in 3A.

They haven't ever had a quality win against anybody.

 

How do you get that? Wayne County is good they put up 50+ points in 2 of the first 3 games and they beat North Laurel by 3 TD's

Who lost big to Mayfield a Class A team. (albeit a great Class A team)

 

yes at the cardinals house and the one man wrecking crew that is J. Jackson. PT had an off night deffensively but with a few adjustments and some coaching pointers PT will be the best out of the west until they get to Central. Then its a toss up even though Central is top Dog right now i think by playoffs PT will have the issues fixed.

Rankings don't mean nothing. I bet the people that rank thsee teams probably hasnt even seen any of them play this year. I suggest that if you want to rank these teams go out and watch them instead of paying attention to how other people/journalist rank them, JMO

One thing to remember about the Cantrell Ratings is this is NOT a ranking system, it is a computer rating system.

 

What that means is a computer using a formula rates the teams by strength but a person does not interject anything into it except the initial data commonly referred to as the "magic number" for a starting point.

 

The result is these computer rankings, by and large, are not very good at the beginning of the season but they will get better and better as the season wears on and more data is absorbed into the formula.

 

We need to recognize this system for what it is.

How do you get that? Wayne County is good they put up 50+ points in 2 of the first 3 games and they beat North Laurel by 3 TD's

 

Wayne Co hasn't played anybody yet. They won't until they travel to Log Mtn. to face the Bobcats. We know what happened last time they went there.

^What he said.

 

 

nikeman49, Belfry very well might be better than Breathitt come November, I hope they are. But this week's rankings are dealing with the here and now. I personally think if the Pirate team we watched this week faced Breathitt this week that Breathitt would be the favorite. Belfry is good, but they have a ways to go yet. Luckily one of my favorite things about being a Belfry fan is watching them grow and progress over the course of the season.

 

Of course this is subjective, as rankings are sometimes more art than science, especially this early in the season. You are right Breathitt's schedule gives us very little barometer on their strength. My assessment of Breathitt is based on how good they were at the end of last season and knowing how many of those same players return, plus add in Shouse and Cox to the mix. I think they will be very scary in 3A.

If they lined up against each other tonight, I would take Belfry.....Cox has played the last two years, Shouse is the only newcomer that has an impact on this team....Breathitt will choke when playing Belfry, it's a phobia that Breathitt kids have when playing them....Haywood will out coach Holcomb every single time.....IMO
If they lined up against each other tonight, I would take Belfry.....Cox has played the last two years, Shouse is the only newcomer that has an impact on this team....Breathitt will choke when playing Belfry, it's a phobia that Breathitt kids have when playing them....Haywood will out coach Holcomb every single time.....IMO

 

As a Belfry fan I can openly say that Holcomb had his Bobcats perfectly prepared for Belfry in the 2008 Semi's. That doesn't mean he necessarily out coached Haywood that game, as I think the biggest obstacle was the fickle mind of 16 year old kids, but Belfry IMO was about 4 TD's better than that Breathitt team and clearly the #2 team in 3A that year but Breathitt executed the perfect game plan and pulled off the upset as a result.

 

Holcomb is a much better coach then you are giving him credit for. The other thing I know about Holcomb is he is not afraid to build his program to reach a "pinnacle" season every 4 or 5 years or so. He will go with the younger skill players who might not be as far along as some upper classmen, and as a result by the time that group are Seniors and Juniors he has a very seasoned and experienced group. He has been building for this season over the past 3 or 4 years, and by adding a potential All-Stater in Shouse and a solid role player in Cox, the Bobcats are loaded.

 

I still think come playoff time this Belfry team will probably have the best chance of peaking and playing their best football (especially with the schedules both teams play), but as of right now I have no argument in saying Breathitt should be ranked higher, and will probably stay that way unless Belfry can go undefeated the rest of the way with statement wins @ Ashland and vs. Johnson Central.

 

The Henry Clay game is a perfect illustration that Belfry obviously has the pieces to be very good. You don't put up nearly 400 yards against a VERY athletic and big 6A school otherwise. It also illustrated that Belfry has a lot of the small things that need substantial improvement: costly turnovers, missed blocks, countless missed tackles, containment lost, and generally bad special teams play. I think each and every one of these can be remedied, but until Belfry displays this improvement I will have a hard time putting them ahead of a Bell County or Breathitt who should roll through their respective regular seasons.

As a Belfry fan I can openly say that Holcomb had his Bobcats perfectly prepared for Belfry in the 2008 Semi's. That doesn't mean he necessarily out coached Haywood that game, as I think the biggest obstacle was the fickle mind of 16 year old kids, but Belfry IMO was about 4 TD's better than that Breathitt team and clearly the #2 team in 3A that year but Breathitt executed the perfect game plan and pulled off the upset as a result.

 

Holcomb is a much better coach then you are giving him credit for. The other thing I know about Holcomb is he is not afraid to build his program to reach a "pinnacle" season every 4 or 5 years or so. He will go with the younger skill players who might not be as far along as some upper classmen, and as a result by the time that group are Seniors and Juniors he has a very seasoned and experienced group. He has been building for this season over the past 3 or 4 years, and by adding a potential All-Stater in Shouse and a solid role player in Cox, the Bobcats are loaded.

 

I still think come playoff time this Belfry team will probably have the best chance of peaking and playing their best football (especially with the schedules both teams play), but as of right now I have no argument in saying Breathitt should be ranked higher, and will probably stay that way unless Belfry can go undefeated the rest of the way with statement wins @ Ashland and vs. Johnson Central.

 

The Henry Clay game is a perfect illustration that Belfry obviously has the pieces to be very good. You don't put up nearly 400 yards against a VERY athletic and big 6A school otherwise. It also illustrated that Belfry has a lot of the small things that need substantial improvement: costly turnovers, missed blocks, countless missed tackles, containment lost, and generally bad special teams play. I think each and every one of these can be remedied, but until Belfry displays this improvement I will have a hard time putting them ahead of a Bell County or Breathitt who should roll through their respective regular seasons.

If Holcomb has built over the past 4 or 5 seasons for this one, why hasn't he played tougher teams and scheduled much tougher opponents this year and really gotten his team ready for a state title run?

^^^

 

You'd have to ask him.

 

In his defense though I don't think he could have expected Letcher Central to be nearly as horrible as they are. LCC appeared to be a team on the rise until all the coaching drama happened.

 

I can live with a schedule that has Somerset and Hazard on it.

 

Clay County, Newport, and Estill County certainly leave a lot to be desired though, especially with a district as weak as the Bobcats'.

^^^

 

You'd have to ask him.

 

In his defense though I don't think he could have expected Letcher Central to be nearly as horrible as they are. LCC appeared to be a team on the rise until all the coaching drama happened.

 

I can live with a schedule that has Somerset and Hazard on it.

 

Clay County, Newport, and Estill County certainly leave a lot to be desired though, especially with a district as weak as the Bobcats'.

Okay....Thanks....just thought you might know him and what he is thinking.....
^^^

 

You'd have to ask him.

 

In his defense though I don't think he could have expected Letcher Central to be nearly as horrible as they are. LCC appeared to be a team on the rise until all the coaching drama happened.

 

I can live with a schedule that has Somerset and Hazard on it.

 

Clay County, Newport, and Estill County certainly leave a lot to be desired though, especially with a district as weak as the Bobcats'.

 

I agree that Somerset and Hazard are good games for Breathitt County. Those schools always punch above their weight. Clay County should be a better game for Breathitt this year than last, although I'd still expect Breathitt to win comfortably. I also don't fault their scheduling of Estill County. That's an area rival, a former district opponent, and a team they have played often over the years. The one head-scratcher to me is Newport.

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