Dino

Raceland by 24. If not for the intense rivalry, I would pick Raceland to win by a wider margin, but Fairview may make it interesting for awhile.

The Massey Ratings have not been updated for this past weekend's games, so Gleason City must have won its second game. I don't have a problem with Fulton City's schedule either. They lost to most of the same teams on their schedule last season, and the Murray game was a huge turnaround from last season. It looks like the program is definitely headed in the right direction. I hope that the game between Mayfield and FC is competitive, but FC has made major strides this season regardless of the outcome of the Mayfield game.

The 2000 team played one team that resembled this 2006 team and that was Tates Creek. In their first meeting, Tates Creek was banged up a little bit and was missing its starting fullback and I think that the Commodores thought the Golden Eagles would be an easy Homecoming win. The result was that Johnson Central ran the ball down Tates Creek's throats and was the more physical team. In the rematch, which took place at Johnson Central in the second round of the playoffs, Tates Creek was healthy and JC suffered a key first half injury to its star RB/LB Scott Salyer. The result was Tates Creek's depth and speed wore the Golden Eagles down and the Commodores won going away. Tates Creek lost in the state semifinals in 2000. The 2006 team is exactly the kind of team that gave Bill Musick's best teams fits. They have a big strong fullback, lots of depth, speed, and a credible kicking game. Coach Musick's team relied on physically wearing down the opponent's defense, staying close for a half, and then dominating the second half after fatigue set in on the opposing defense. That strategy worked great until the team met teams with more size and depth in the playoffs. That is where being the state's smallest 4A school began to show. Whether the 2006 team goes deep into the playoffs or not, Coach Matney and his staff have addressed the depth issue and JC is deeper and the school has a larger enrollment than most of the teams that it might face in the playoffs. This team also does not rely on brute force to win games in the same way that the 2000 team did. I loved Coach Musick's attitude toward football. You knew what his teams' game plans were and he expected that the plan might not work for half a game or more. But he and his players were confident that the second half belonged to them and all they had to do was stay close for a half. For the 2000 team, that strategy worked 11 out of 12 times and I enjoyed watching every game. The 2000 team was the most exciting JC team to watch ever, IMO. The dramatic road win at Boyd County was the most memorable come from behind win that season, but JC staged several second half comebacks.

If Massey's information is correct, Fulton City has won one more game this season (7) than all of its opponents have won combined (6). That's right, Fulton City has not yet defeated a team with more than one win to its credit. Massey ranks FC's strength of schedule at #221. Mayfield will roll in this game in a big way.

No coach is better at motivating a team than Matney, and whatever is said by a few fans here on BGP will have no bearing on the game. Matney and the Golden Eagle players believe that last season's game should have gone to OT. I vividly recall that Matney accused Ashland of running the score up on a very young Sheldon Clark team one season. The Tomcats had to travel to Inez for a rematch the next season and were heavy favorites, but Ashland went home with a loss. Whether the disputed field goal in last season's game was good or not is not important, but that field goal will play a role in deciding this year's game. JC's players will be playing to avenge an injustice. Home field advantage is particularly important for a young team and Johnson Central will not take the Tomcats lightly. I suspect that the Tomcat fans are scarce because they realize that this year's Ashland team is not as good as last year's team and this year's JC team is better than last year's team. Add the fact that the game will not be played in the friendly confines of Putnam Stadium this season, and Tomcat fans have every reason to be worried about next week's game.

Yes, they did at the time, but that was another season and the topic was thoroughly discussed last season. There is no reason to rehash a 12 page thread here. BTW, do you contribute to the BGP rankings?

9 out of 10 Top 10 teams lose in the playoffs every season. Johnson Central deserved to be in the lower part of the top 10 last season, they have earned a spot this season, and if the get upset in the first round of the playoffs this season - they will deserve a preseason top 10 ranking next season. Next year's team should be better than this team and the team may be even better the following year. Football teams are like mutual funds, past performance does not guarantee future results. When a good team returns most of its starters from the previous season, it is reasonable to expect that it will improve. JC returned many starters, and although they still depend heavily on sophomores and juniors, this is an experienced team. Ashland is a senior-dominated team and if the Tomcats do not beat the Golden Eagles this season, they may not get another good shot for a few years.

Are there no WKY teams for you to bash, westsider? A broken clock is right twice a day. As for "the way things turned out," Johnson Central outplayed the Tomcats in every quarter except the second, which Ashland dominated. A controversial field goal call kept the game from going into OT, and Johnson Central clearly had the momentum in the second half of last year's game. Ala in all, the Golden Eagles played an outstanding game in a hostile environment, so I would not twist my arm out of socket patting myself on the back if I were you. Most flatlanders expected the Tomcats to dominate last year's game and it just didn't happen. Johnson Central is the team to beat this season in the district and those of us who actually know something about the program knew that fact before the season began. I am glad to see you finally jump on the bandwagon. I knew you would come around eventually.:lol: Most of us did not expect the Golden Eagles to be a favorite to win the regional title, but seeing both Rockcastle and Bell struggle against some mediocre teams has made it clear that JC has as good a shot as anybody. Besides, Mason County almost took the title home to Maysville last season.

I am flattered that you value my opinion enough to research my old posts, westsider. If the Golden Eagles make a deep run in this year's playoffs, I will be sure to return the favor. It should be pretty easy to find posts disparaging the Johnson Central program. It seems as though many people who know little or nothing about Johnson Central's program enjoy critiquing it ad nauseum. This is still a very young team and considering the fact that this year's senior players were members of a team that posted a 1-9 record (and narrowly missed going winless), the team's performance this season (and the previous two seasons) has been remarkable. I have no idea how deep Johnson Central will go in this year's playoffs, but if Jim Matney remains at Johnson Central, it is only a matter of time the Golden Eagles make a deep run and they will be competitive with the top teams in the state. When that happens, maybe you can find another eastern Kentucky team to criticize.:thumb:

I never considered you a "Tomcat supporter," westsider, just a Golden Eagles detractor. I feel pretty confident that JC will win this game by at least a couple of touchdowns, but if they do, then I will be more worried about a possible rematch in the playoffs. Now that Ashland and Johnson Central have played a couple of common opponents, it is pretty clear that the Golden Eagles should be favored to win next week's game. The Mason County game, assuming JC handles Ashland as easily as I expect, looms as a very dangerous road game. Coach Buchanan does a great job preparing the Royals for big games and came within an eye lash of winning the region last year after both Ashland and Johnson Central beat the Royals soundly in the regular season. Johnson Central cannot afford to take any game for granted from this point forward, but that message is not always easy for young players to understand.

Flipper, where is your prediction and analysis for this game? The thread starter generally offers an opinion. Also, I wonder if it would be possible to request that a moderator add a poll to this thread, similar to last week's Belfry-Sheldon Clark thread? That might entice more Ashland posters to contribute to the discussion. Some of the more vocal Tomcat supporters from last season's pregame thread seem to be having a difficult time finding this thread.

If Johnson Central wins or draws the take-away stat, the Golden Eagles will win by 21 or more. If Ashland wins the turnover battle, then the game may be closer. I don't think that we will see a repeat of the Golden Eagles' playoff performance against Madison Southern last season. This is a much better defense than the one that held Ashland to 13 at Putnam last season and I just don't see the Tomcats scoring much more this season unless the Golden Eagles repeatedly turn the ball over deep in their own territory. If Johnson Central leads at halftime, Ashland could be in deep trouble.

I don't believe that the Johnson Central "brass" care what some media types think about its football program, nor do I expect that they will be bragging because some small town sports writer cast a first place vote for the Golden Eagles. As of now, Johnson Central has won as many playoff games this season as any of the four defending state champions have won. This current team has nothing more and nothing less to prove than any other 2006 Kentucky high school team has to prove.

The 2000 team would hang tough with the current team for the first half and maybe through three quarters. After that, fatigue would set in and the 2006 team would pull away for the win. The 2000 team had a punishing ground attack, but the nods for depth, special teams play, and passing defense all go to the current team. The 2000 team went undefeated despite consistently giving up good field position to every team it played.

That's part of it, but another factor is that schedules are not made to satisfy BGP members. Economics play a big role and games that put visiting fans in the stand help pay the light bills. Many teams that would make excellent opponents do not have support that "travels well." When you start scheduling out of state teams and in state teams that are a two and a half or more drive away, that becomes a big factor. It is easy for people from Louisville, Lexington, and NKY to criticize some of the eastern Kentucky teams' schedules, but those schools generally have more money to spend on travel and more teams to choose from that are within an hour's drive. Teams can drop down a class, like Ashland did this season, to pick up Russell and Belfry (a long drive from Ashland, BTW), but the Red Devils and Pirates can't play every 3A eastern Kentucky team that wants to beef up its schedule.

That is true, but Johnson Central was the smallest 4A school in the state when it last competed in that class. Its enrollment is less than half of Trinity's enrollment and has never been much bigger than it is now. That being said, JC had enough students to have been more competitive in 4A than it was. Depth was always a problem for the Golden Eagles in the playoffs and its physical, ground-oriented style was not well suited for the bigger, deeper teams that it eventually faced in the playoffs. There is no shame in losing to a team like the 2000 Highlands team, but if Male had lost to them, it would have tarnished their state title, IMO. Without a head-to-head match-up, most people assume that the 4A state champ is the top team in the state - because it usually is. When the 4A champ loses to the 3A champ, the smaller school has a pretty solid claim on the mythical all-class championship. Highlands gained more from the win over Trinity than Trinity would have gained had it beaten the Highlands team.

I disagree. Polls and rankings provide some good memories for players who are not fortunate enough to play for a state championship team. Sometimes two highly ranked teams (e.g., Covington Catholic and Highlands) play in the same district. If one of those teams wins the 3A title, most players on the losing team, when asked about their senior season 20 years from now will tell you: 1. They played on the ___ ranked team in the state, but 2. they lost to the eventual state champion, which played in the same district, and they may also make the case that 3. they were the second best team in the state their senior year, based on the close loss in the district title game to the state champ and the team's lofty ranking. Polls and rankings are fun to discuss, but when the season is over, they also become one of the fond memories for many players. The ultimate reward for a successful season is a series of championship titles, but polls and rankings also provide some meaningful recognition to programs for a successful season.

That's why such a game will not take place. Trinity has nothing to gain by playing any 3A or smaller team. If the Rocks were to lose and then win the state 4A title, the loss would be like placing a big asterisk on the trophy. It is much better to win the same title that the team that beat you had a shot at winning.

If the invitation were extended, I doubt that Johnson Central would decline it, but I doubt that you are in position to make that offer. I think that you will see JC's strength of schedule improve steadily over the next few seasons, but I doubt that Trinity will have any interest in playing the Golden Eagles anytime soon. I have no idea whether Warren Central would want to play Trinity as its out of state match-up next season. WC loses nearly 40 seniors this season, so the Warriors may not be quite as dominant next year as they are now. At the very least, the gap between the Warriors and the other Indy 5A teams should narrow a bit. 2007 might be a good time for some 6A Kentucky team to give the Warriors a call, but I would not count on catching WC in rebuild mode, despite the heave graduaton losses. Despite the attitude that some down state fans exhibit toward Johnson Central, I always pull for Kentucky teams playing out of state. I would love to see one of the Louisville teams play and beat Warren Central. When Kentucky's top teams do well against top out of state teams, it reflects favorably on every program in the state.

^ This comment makes me wish that Warren Central had scheduled the Rocks this season instead of Maine South. No matter how good a program is, there are always fans of a better team eager to look down upon the program. Remember as you continue taking potshots at Johnson Central that there is no shortage of fans of teams better than Trinity (or teams whose fans think they are better) willing to look down their collective noses at the Rocks. Johnson Central would have nothing to lose and everything to gain by playing Trinity (or Hoover) next season. Trinity would either suffer an embarrassing loss to a school less than half its size or it would win a game that everybody would expect it to win. Unless Hoover expects to be rebuilding next season, I doubt that it fills the open date with a Kentucky team next season.

Every ranking system, whether "objective" or "subjective" uses its own version of so-called "magic numbers." The bottom line is that no system is free of human bias. IMO, there is no reasonable basis one could use to rank a 1A school that has played a weak schedule among the top 20 teams from all classes. The better ranking systems contain detailed explanations of the methodology that is used. Both Massey and Sagarin do so, I believe, as does the AP. I am skeptical of people who claim that their rankings are "objective," but do not divulge enough information to allow their results to be checked. I didn't see any such explanation of the MaxPreps ranking method, but maybe it is available to registered users. Whether or not the system is "objective" or not, the MaxPreps methods produce some bizarre results, IMO. As for how well each system picks state semi-finalists in their last regular season rankings, if the process used to rank is not transparent, we cannot be sure that somebody is not applying some "magic numbers" during the season to spare himself some embarrassment. In other words, claiming that a system is objective does not make it so.

There are some odd discrepancies among the Litkenhouse, Cantrall, and Massey ratings, but they are minor compared to some of the MaxPreps differences. MaxPreps rankings for Bethlehem, Tates Creek, Western, and Scott County are way out of line with the other rankings.

The rankings marked in blue seem out of whack compared to the major computer ranking systems.

You're right, but I stand by my assertion that the system is severely flawed. Not much weight seems to have been given to class or strength of schedule. How doe a team whose best win to date has been a 5 point upset of Louisville Holy Cross warrant a top 20 rating? Massey has Bethlehem ranked 8th in 1A and 63rd overall, which sounds pretty reasonable, IMO. I cannot imagine any statistical model that would rank Danville four places below Bethlehem. On a given night, Bethlehem might upset Danville, but I don't believe many Bethlehem fans would object to the win being described as an upset.

I am sure that there is nobody in Belfry who want to lose such a great coach to retirement. However, there are many people in eastern Kentucky who would probably kick in a few bucks on a gold pocketwatch to see Coach Haywood call it quits at Belfry.:lol: