02Ram54

:thumb:

Louisville also improved throughout the year, particularly in the passing game. I'm not discounting the fact that things change. But you're discounting the fact that not everything does. At this point, the matchups favor Louisville, by a good margin. Louisville will have, across the board, the advangtage when their offense lines up against Kentucky's defense. I think that Kentucky will have an advantage against Louisville's pass defense but be at a disadvantage to Louisville's rush defense. This, to me, will translate into an inability to sustain drives, much as they could not this past September. UK will have downfield scoring, but I don't think they're the machine Louisville is on offense. And I know I'd rather have Louisville's defense than UK's. But we're clearly getting hung up on one game over the entire schedule. I agree with CR's analysis, although I'm rooting for UK to get that 6th win to end the season against the Vols.

Since Louisville returns almost all of an offense that had their way with Kentucky last season, I think it's an important tool for evaluation. And yes, I know, bigger faster stronger. But just remember that Anthony Allen will be, too.:ylsuper:

I repeat, what part of what I posted did I imagine? I was stating facts (Louisville ran the ball wherever and whenever they wanted this past September, and Kentucky ran for 22 total yards.) Louisville returns too much on offense. I really can't get a view of it any other way. I think Kentucky will score a bit themselves (the JUCOs may not be quite meshed in scheme-wise until BE play starts) but I think Louisville will stop UK more than the other way around.

Uh, what part of what I posted did I imagine?

EXACTLY.:thumb:

Louisville, too. UK really needs to beef up to prevent Louisville from running away with it in Lexington. Outside of the end-around for Harry Douglas, there was no Bobby Petrino razzle-dazzle on offense last season. Louisville ran it down UK's throat, with the occasional play action pass. On offense, UK couldn't establish any kind of running game. Part of that was getting down so far so quick, but that wasn't all of it. I don't think Louisville will win the game in the first 10 minutes like they did last year and there are some solid arguments on why it will at least be an athletic contest, but at this point hope is all you really have to point to to say Kentucky will beat actually beat Louisville.

In my post, I pointed out that I thought last year was different. There was a large variety of opinion about what Kentucky's record would be BECAUSE of the way the schedule was set up, there were plenty of chances for you to say 'UK may not be the favorite, but being at home I think they've got a chance against South Carolina' or 'UK isn't the best team around, and it's not a for sure win, but I think they'll beat Vandy.' This next year's schedule doesn't set up the same way.

Hope, she springs eternal.

I think Arkansas will be weaker, but Georgia will be better than last year, and in any case I would strike them off the list along with South Carolina because UK has yet to score an SEC road upset under Brooks. Coming into this year they hadn't even won on the road in SEC play had they, so I don't think you can start underlining road contests as good chances for UK. I don't think Louisville is strictly winnable, either, I think they belong more in the catergory with UF and LSU.

I see it in a completely different light, personally, in that there are FEWER games that could go either way, compared to last year. Kentucky has a schedule where there are more games that you could nearly write in pen what the result will be (both wins and losses) than last year.

I see five ranked teams in there, maybe four (I think Arkansas won't be as good.) Big difference?

UK had everything set up last season to get to bowl-eligible. They were on a favorable rotation for SEC play (Kentucky played the bottom 2 finishers in the West while missing the top 2, and played many of their winable games at home) ; they also scheduled OOC with eligibility in mind (minus the U of L game, although several of those games were closer than I'm sure they had in mind.) UK will still play a weak OOC besides the Louisville game, but the SEC schedule is unkind. I see bowl eligibility coming down to the last game against Tennessee... will this be the year UK finally beats their biggest SEC rival after so many close games? We see it identically, CR.

Louisville has 3 opponents on that schedule that are preseason ranked at this point, and Kentucky fans are clamoring to be included in that group. 4 possibly ranked opponents is not too shabby. 8 of those teams went to a bowl this past season, and 10 have been to a bowl in the past two years.

Whydja change your mind? Forget to count UK for a loss? Or did you not even really analyze game-by-game, but just threw a mediocre season out there?

Probably old info. First thing I ran across.

I think 10-2 is the base expectation (as in, the lowest that the fans will allow and not grouse too badly.) I personally expect 11-1 (and I don't expect to lose to WVU, that 1 is USF and I really hope I'm wrong) and undefeated would not shock me if Louisville avoids major injuries. Where do you see the 2?

Louisville's? I don't believe it's entirely set yet. Thur. Aug. 30 vs Murray State Sat. Sept. 8 vs Middle Tennessee Sat. Sept 15 @ Kentucky TBA vs Utah TBA @ N.C. State TBA @ Cincinnati TBA vs Syracuse TBA @ West Virginia TBA vs Rutgers TBA @ South Florida TBA vs Pittsburgh TBA @ Connecticut

And I thought we were friends! :lol:

Luther Davis has been as big a circus recruiting-wise as I have ever heard of. He didn't just visit Bama, he lied about visiting Bama, so I see no problem with pulling the offer. And the quotes from his mom over all this are HILARIOUS. He was a 5 star, but he's dropped to a 4. And Louisville was in on him until last month, so we might end up the destination. But I don't know, he sounds like a headcase and I wouldn't hazard a prediction at this point.

I don't think it takes an expert to predict that on DeVine.

Beat G-Town, Nova, Pitt or Marquette, and I promise you that Louisville will have a bye for MSG. And a thoroughly punched ticket. I think they either have to beat one of those teams, or win a game or two in the BE tourny. But I do think the ship is headed in the right direction. :thumb: For the record, I see 2 wins in that bunch.

Watched it the other night, loved it. Ms 02 has declared it her favorite movie of all time.

How in the world do you figue Louisville to be 6th in the BE?!!!! http://www.bigeast.org/data/bige-m-baskbl-standings.html Louisville is in a 3-way tie for second...:thumb:

How? He matured, got out of a bad enviornment, and started to behave himself. How creepy...