April 25, 201214 yr At some point this has to level off..... right? [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD][TABLE] [TR] [TH] Product Sold [/TH] [TH] Actual [/TH] [TH] Median Projected [/TH] [TH] Last Year [/TH] [TH] Y-o-Y Growth [/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD] iPhones [/TD] [TD] 35.06 million [/TD] [TD] 30.59 million [/TD] [TD] 18.647 million [/TD] [TD] 87.99% [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] iPads [/TD] [TD] 11.88 million [/TD] [TD] 11.74 million [/TD] [TD] 4.694 million [/TD] [TD] 151.87% [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Macs [/TD] [TD] 4.02 million [/TD] [TD] 4.07 million [/TD] [TD] 3.76 million [/TD] [TD] 6.83% [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
April 25, 201214 yr Author At some point this has to level off..... right? [TABLE=width: 500] [TR] [TD][TABLE] [TR] [TH] Product Sold [/TH] [TH] Actual [/TH] [TH] Median Projected [/TH] [TH] Last Year [/TH] [TH] Y-o-Y Growth [/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD] iPhones [/TD] [TD] 35.06 million [/TD] [TD] 30.59 million [/TD] [TD] 18.647 million [/TD] [TD] 87.99% [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] iPads [/TD] [TD] 11.88 million [/TD] [TD] 11.74 million [/TD] [TD] 4.694 million [/TD] [TD] 151.87% [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD] Macs [/TD] [TD] 4.02 million [/TD] [TD] 4.07 million [/TD] [TD] 3.76 million [/TD] [TD] 6.83% [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Do they? I'm sure that was said when the IPhone 2 sold so many units or the 3. Still a HUGE worldwide market for the IPad. Plus , who knows what is next. It wasn't many years ago we had never seen an IPhone.
April 25, 201214 yr Author It is more than one analyst starting to question Apple. The challenges for more growth are Apple products' prices make emerging market growth a challenge and in the US, as competition ramps up and price subsidies by the cell carriers start to go away, price could become an issue here as well, affecting sales and profitability. That being said, I am planning to buy in today while the price is at a bit of a low point for the year, primarily because of iPad growth as that product becomes more popular in the commercial markets. Has there been mention of the cell carriers doing away with subsidies?
April 25, 201214 yr Has there been mention of the cell carriers doing away with subsidies? Yes, I have read reports that middle part of this year and on there is a strong chance that happens. Apple got a 50 point pop today out of those great numbers posted after market close last night. If you bought in yesterday, you made 9% return over night. :thumb:
April 25, 201214 yr Do they? I'm sure that was said when the IPhone 2 sold so many units or the 3. Still a HUGE worldwide market for the IPad. Plus , who knows what is next. It wasn't many years ago we had never seen an IPhone. It's a fair question and a hard one to answer. Apple TV has to come soon IMO. IPhone sales will be fine but I have concerns about future IPad sales.
April 25, 201214 yr Author Yes, I have read reports that middle part of this year and on there is a strong chance that happens. I disagree. If a carrier chooses to lessen or eliminate the subsidy ie causing the price for the phone to be higher that carrier will undoubtedly lose it's core business of providing services. People will go to the carrier that offers the best price on the IPhone. It would take all of the carriers a)getting together to do it and b)sticking to it when they see their core business revenue drop.
April 25, 201214 yr Author It's a fair question and a hard one to answer. Apple TV has to come soon IMO. IPhone sales will be fine but I have concerns about future IPad sales. Apple's growth will be spurred by China. IPads will be part of that China growth.
April 25, 201214 yr Author I read this interesting note today. The IPhone portion of Apple generates $35B of PROFIT per year for Apple. That is more than the total profit for ExxonMobil. Remember, Apple has a contract with the largest carrier in China that hasn't even gone into effect yet. When it does look at all of the IPhones that will be sold.
April 25, 201214 yr I disagree. If a carrier chooses to lessen or eliminate the subsidy ie causing the price for the phone to be higher that carrier will undoubtedly lose it's core business of providing services. People will go to the carrier that offers the best price on the IPhone. It would take all of the carriers a)getting together to do it and b)sticking to it when they see their core business revenue drop. Apple's advantage in the market place is going to lose steam going forward. Competition is going to catch up on the product side and that will cut into profits. It is inevitable. Losing profitability doesn't mean the stock will not be a good one. It just means it will be less profitable than it has been in this area.
April 25, 201214 yr Author Apple's advantage in the market place is going to lose steam going forward. Competition is going to catch up on the product side and that will cut into profits. It is inevitable. Losing profitability doesn't mean the stock will not be a good one. It just means it will be less profitable than it has been in this area. How soon do you see them "losing steam?" Are you factoring in China? Just the US? Counting future products?
April 25, 201214 yr I would advise anyone looking to buy right now to check out AFL. I bought it last week at about $41.00. Morningstar has them grossly undervalued, as does Yahoo! and Bloomberg. I have a pretty simple and rudimentary valuation spreadsheet myself which gives them a valuation around $53. The average of those four metrics are right around $55, with a margin of safety around 31%. Pretty safe investment for a company looking to take advantage of a very expansive market in Japan. Just some thoughts for anyone looking at companies to purchase.
April 25, 201214 yr How soon do you see them "losing steam?" Are you factoring in China? Just the US? Counting future products? My comments on losing stream are all about the iPhone and that product/market alone. As to the stock as a whole, I am still on the buy side even at today's price.
April 25, 201214 yr Author My comments on losing stream are all about the iPhone and that product/market alone. As to the stock as a whole, I am still on the buy side even at today's price. Gotcha. We disagree on the future of the IPhone.
April 27, 201214 yr Author My comments on losing stream are all about the iPhone and that product/market alone. As to the stock as a whole, I am still on the buy side even at today's price. Fool's view on Apple. Sorry, Apple Bears. Wrong Again. (AAPL)
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