February 14, 201016 yr Anecdotal, single story evidence is not the norm. I know people who lived to be 104 and smoked all of their life, that does not mean that smoking is not bad for you. For every single story you give me, I can give you 10 of people losing their jobs and their former bosses getting pay raises. Our system presently does not reward labor and hard work. Not that I agree with the statement but what existing system does?
February 14, 201016 yr Anecdotal, single story evidence is not the norm. I know people who lived to be 104 and smoked all of their life, that does not mean that smoking is not bad for you. For every single story you give me, I can give you 10 of people losing their jobs and their former bosses getting pay raises. Our system presently does not reward labor and hard work. Sure it does, and you if you stay with a place that doesn't reward it, that's your problem and thus you get what you deserve.
February 14, 201016 yr I think we are at least a year or two away. My brother had to take a pay cut, my mom got no raise, mine is due in March so I guess I will see what happens. Oddly enough each Saturday night in Florence, you can't go to an Applebees or Cheddars without a 30 min. wait. Most of my friends who are living comfortably are the ones who live with 2+ roomates.
February 15, 201016 yr Anecdotal, single story evidence is not the norm. I know people who lived to be 104 and smoked all of their life, that does not mean that smoking is not bad for you. For every single story you give me, I can give you 10 of people losing their jobs and their former bosses getting pay raises. Our system presently does not reward labor and hard work. Assuming "Our system" is a free market capital driven based political freedom system that leaves the only alternative of socialism/communism/central driven/totalitarian system. You can save some typing and just point to this page for utopia... http://www.cpusa.org/faq/ Good slogans here... "People and nature before profits" i.e. we will use green to destroy companies. "We are against capitalism" At least their honest. They favor the over throw of the free market system and with it personal economic freedom. "We are internationlists." Again, at least honest. US Constitution - who cares... "We for the Freedom Free Choice Act" Union card check to indentify the holdouts and threaten them. Basically the policies of the National Demcratic party and current administation with a red star logo. Times are tough right now. Unfortunately that is when the most dangerous ideas take hold. Between now and November the system of free markets, capitalism and the democratic republic will be tested as they never have been.
February 15, 201016 yr Assuming "Our system" is a free market capital driven based political freedom system that leaves the only alternative of socialism/communism/central driven/totalitarian system. You can save some typing and just point to this page for utopia... http://www.cpusa.org/faq/ Good slogans here... "People and nature before profits" i.e. we will use green to destroy companies. "We are against capitalism" At least their honest. They favor the over throw of the free market system and with it personal economic freedom. "We are internationlists." Again, at least honest. US Constitution - who cares... "We for the Freedom Free Choice Act" Union card check to indentify the holdouts and threaten them. Basically the policies of the National Demcratic party and current administation with a red star logo. Times are tough right now. Unfortunately that is when the most dangerous ideas take hold. Between now and November the system of free markets, capitalism and the democratic republic will be tested as they never have been. It is never either/or - how about mixed market economy? When the regulations are appropriate and enforced, we build the middle class. It is when we believe that the absolute free market works for everyone that we get int trouble.
February 15, 201016 yr It is never either/or - how about mixed market economy? (A) When the regulations are appropriate and enforced, we build the middle class. (B) It is when we believe that the absolute free market works for everyone that we get int trouble. On point A above - I agree 100%. I will grant that governments role is the ensure and enforce reasonable regulations. However it should do that in most cases to protect the function of a free-market capital driven system - not to pick winners and losers. On point B - that is where there is a slippery slope. I would encourge you not to lose faith in the Adam Smith. Free markets in their purest form are not the problem. However free markets can be hurt and corrupted of the free market environment via monopolies or oligopolies and by the leaders of the industries personally ignoring their fiduciary and moral trust. After looking up some of the material in previous posts I am more convinced than ever that the deregulation of the banks and 'modernization' of the banks was a core reason for the current mess. These actions gave us: a) 'Too big to Fail' - an anti-Adam Smith term if there ever was one, b) 'Financial Derivatives' c) 'credit default swaps', d) bailouts, and so on. Banking that supports the good of the economy is meant to be a boring, predictable, very low risk and profitable. But Wall Street grades companies, and their stock price, on earnings. So the big, publically held banks wanted to be free of the boredom. And so they were freed. But with freedom came- higher risks and vulnerability to market forces. But during the good times it was a free for all. Instead of the being steady eddies they bought each other out, came up with new 'products' (derivatives), lobbied to loosen up goverment policy on home loans, and became ' too big to fail'. But they also became vulnerable to the macro conditions of the economy and got hammered in the housing bubble. Then went crying back to the government for the bailouts. Now they are getting money for next to nothing (what the Fed does) and they are charging at 4.75% on it for the lowest priced mortgages and up to 20% on credit card debt. No wonder they can pay back the bailouts. As you can see I am upset not just with Washington but NY as well. Wall Street and over sized mammoth nation banks have corrupted the Adam Smiths model. Edited February 15, 201016 yr by Bluegrasscard changed reference about gov and Fed
February 15, 201016 yr Bluegrasscard, your posts are excellent.:thumb: Thank you. I am just trying keep Mr. Smiths name from taking an uncalled for beating. It looks like acemona is giving up on him. Of course Michael Douglass did not help with his line in Wall Street. Times are tough right now, no doubt. But lets not kill the only economic system that really works in a politically free society.
February 15, 201016 yr Thank you. I am just trying keep Mr. Smiths name from taking an uncalled for beating. It looks like acemona is giving up on him. Of course Michael Douglass did not help with his line in Wall Street. Times are tough right now, no doubt. But lets not kill the only economic system that really works in a politically free society. When do you see us "back" into a full recovery at the earliest time frame and longest?
February 15, 201016 yr When do you see us "back" into a full recovery at the earliest time frame and longest? A pure guess - earliest would be end of this year. Worst would be 6 months to 1 year after that. Reasoning is that regardless of the spin from DC bottom is not yet reached. Layoffs are still coming, delinquent mortgages are still rising, etc. This will hopefully level out and finally bottom in 1Q. There will be no real potential for usable good news until at least 1Q earnings are reported - that will be mid - late April. It is unlikely the news will be good enough to spark a new wave of hiring. So that puts the next cycle at 2Q earnings news. So that is late July. Even if it is good news the companies will hold up on hiring to see if its a real uptick. Also, the elections will add uncertainty and businesses hate uncertainty. BTW, this why the healthcare bill and cap and trade have hurt the business environment in the last few months but that is another thread. So hopefully by 3Q earnings time and into the 4th quarter companies feel its worth while to start doing strong hiring again. Also, the WH administration does not seem to have a clue on how businesses work. So they will likely fumble around some more, assuming it is really is just fumbling. 80+% have never worked in private enterprise. I bet most have no idea who Adam Smith is. And some definitely take a likely to Mr. Marx and Chairman Mao. The Republicans could try to ignite things. But they are still in the minority in both houses. Also they do not have much to gain politically with a sharp rebound prior to November. Until then, they will likely support fixes...but not quick fixes - not that there appear to be any.
February 15, 201016 yr I found the following while looking around. It provides a good condensed background on some of the points in post #51 above. I have not read it in detail but the key points are all there. Easy credit, over leveraged banks, Financial products and innovation, etc. There is some really reading here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932010
February 16, 201016 yr A pure guess - earliest would be end of this year. Worst would be 6 months to 1 year after that. Reasoning is that regardless of the spin from DC bottom is not yet reached. Layoffs are still coming, delinquent mortgages are still rising, etc. This will hopefully level out and finally bottom in 1Q. There will be no real potential for usable good news until at least 1Q earnings are reported - that will be mid - late April. It is unlikely the news will be good enough to spark a new wave of hiring. So that puts the next cycle at 2Q earnings news. So that is late July. Even if it is good news the companies will hold up on hiring to see if its a real uptick. Also, the elections will add uncertainty and businesses hate uncertainty. BTW, this why the healthcare bill and cap and trade have hurt the business environment in the last few months but that is another thread. So hopefully by 3Q earnings time and into the 4th quarter companies feel its worth while to start doing strong hiring again. Also, the WH administration does not seem to have a clue on how businesses work. So they will likely fumble around some more, assuming it is really is just fumbling. 80+% have never worked in private enterprise. I bet most have no idea who Adam Smith is. And some definitely take a likely to Mr. Marx and Chairman Mao. The Republicans could try to ignite things. But they are still in the minority in both houses. Also they do not have much to gain politically with a sharp rebound prior to November. Until then, they will likely support fixes...but not quick fixes - not that there appear to be any. So we pretty much have another year it sounds. I still think people will find 09 to be worse. Hopefully, we can at least perceive 10 as a starting point.
February 16, 201016 yr What about tax cuts to make spending money available? You do know that there have been several tax cuts in the last year don't you. You also know that people are keeping their money and not spending don't you. More money is good, but jobs are still the thing. Until more people are working, the people who have jobs are paying off bills and saving whatever they have left.
February 16, 201016 yr What about tax cuts to make spending money available? Sorry, it goes the other way. The "Bush taxcuts" expire this year. And the budget submitted to Congress by the WH recently called for them to expire. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/obama-budget-lets-bush-tax-cuts-expire-2010-02-01 So unless Congress gets its act together and comes together in a veto proof manner there will be a massive tax increase this year. As for Congress 'working together' - look at this weekend and yesterday. Harry Reid killed the bi-partisan, WH supported jobs bill in an abrupt and unilateral action. Why? So that they could 'start over'. Why? Because the Republicans would look good if it passed. So it was scuttled for pure political reasons. Then on Monday Bayh announces he will not run for his seat again. With only 4 days to find a replacement and he does not tell Reid or Obama of his decision prior to the announcement. Was it a direct relationship to Reids pure political gamesmanship on a bill that is supposed to help Americans? Who knows. But the timing and circumstances suggest the two actions are related. Edited February 16, 201016 yr by Bluegrasscard Add link
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