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Tornado Alley expanding east?

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From Chief Meteorologist Mike Collier (Tulsa, OK) on Facebook:

Tornado Alley hasn’t moved east — but tornado activity is expanding.
The heart of Tornado Alley still lies in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, but more tornadoes are being reported further east. In 2024 alone, Ohio had 74 tornadoes—the most in state history—and Indiana saw its second-highest total ever.
This doesn’t mean Tornado Alley shifted… it means the danger zone is growing.
Stay alert, stay prepared—and don’t buy into the myth that the Plains are in the clear. We’re just seeing an expansion, not a relocation.

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I think part of it is that technology has improved so much that we can detect even the smallest of tornadoes where that was much difficult to do in the past. There definitely is some validity that the threat has shifted eastward, but I don't think the map presented here is an accurate representation. 

If there were a "new" tornado alley, it would be Dixie Alley in the south. 

19 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

I think part of it is that technology has improved so much that we can detect even the smallest of tornadoes where that was much difficult to do in the past. There definitely is some validity that the threat has shifted eastward, but I don't think the map presented here is an accurate representation. 

If there were a "new" tornado alley, it would be Dixie Alley in the south. 

I agree with all of what you said here. My parents talked about the 1974 outbreak of tornadoes in Kentucky as an absolute anomaly while it seems like its a once-a-year occurrence now. The ability to better track has made what used to be a "big storm" into a "tornado," perhaps revealing what was always there in the first place. However, I like your name "Dixie Alley" because it seems now that Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and some of Kentucky are in line almost constantly with tornadoes, something that didn't seem as obvious in decades past.

13 minutes ago, gchs_uk9 said:

I agree with all of what you said here. My parents talked about the 1974 outbreak of tornadoes in Kentucky as an absolute anomaly while it seems like its a once-a-year occurrence now. The ability to better track has made what used to be a "big storm" into a "tornado," perhaps revealing what was always there in the first place. However, I like your name "Dixie Alley" because it seems now that Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and some of Kentucky are in line almost constantly with tornadoes, something that didn't seem as obvious in decades past.

The weather enterprise has made several changes over the years to better inform people. One of those examples is instead of issuing Tornado Warnings, you will now often see Severe Thunderstorm Warnings with a "tornado possible" tag. For years, the NWS was issuing Tornado Warnings and there was something like a 90% miss rate. This caused people to not take them as seriously, ultimately resulting in the loss of life in many instances. 

Due to improved technology, tornadoes can be confirmed exclusively using radar which was never possible in the past. Reflectivity (the "normal" radar people are used to seeing) paired with velocity and correlation coefficient can tell us when a tornado has touched down and has or is doing damage. Even still, small tornadoes can spin up, touch down and be gone in between radar scans, which goes to your point of being a "big storm" decades ago. 

23 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

The weather enterprise has made several changes over the years to better inform people. One of those examples is instead of issuing Tornado Warnings, you will now often see Severe Thunderstorm Warnings with a "tornado possible" tag. For years, the NWS was issuing Tornado Warnings and there was something like a 90% miss rate. This caused people to not take them as seriously, ultimately resulting in the loss of life in many instances. 

Due to improved technology, tornadoes can be confirmed exclusively using radar which was never possible in the past. Reflectivity (the "normal" radar people are used to seeing) paired with velocity and correlation coefficient can tell us when a tornado has touched down and has or is doing damage. Even still, small tornadoes can spin up, touch down and be gone in between radar scans, which goes to your point of being a "big storm" decades ago. 

Hmmm.... I guess your point is correct, but I can confirm as recently as last week that when I see the Severe Thunderstorm Warning with the tornado possible tag, I go back to sleep. I always waited for the alarm for a tornado warning. 

I guess I need to adjust my ways lol.

1 hour ago, ChickenWyngz said:

Hmmm.... I guess your point is correct, but I can confirm as recently as last week that when I see the Severe Thunderstorm Warning with the tornado possible tag, I go back to sleep. I always waited for the alarm for a tornado warning. 

I guess I need to adjust my ways lol.

It's people like you that will complain and say there wasn't a tornado warning when their house gets destroyed. ?

16 hours ago, TheDeuce said:

It's people like you that will complain and say there wasn't a tornado warning when their house gets destroyed. ?

Sadly, I can confirm this lol.

When the tornado touched down in CVG last month, I spent the next day saying it would have been great to have a warning. I had no idea that is now the warning lol. 

1 hour ago, ChickenWyngz said:

Sadly, I can confirm this lol.

When the tornado touched down in CVG last month, I spent the next day saying it would have been great to have a warning. I had no idea that is now the warning lol. 

This way of warning is still relatively new, so it will take some time for the general public to catch on. Once people realize that those storms can and do produce tornadoes, hopefully that "tornado possible" tag will cause people to pay attention. 

And the tag doesn't replace the traditional Tornado Warning, it's in addition. Now, if you're under a Tornado Warning, the NWS is pretty certain there is or is about to be a tornado, and there's a much higher likelihood that the storm is or will produce. 

Question - does a Severe Thunderstorm Warning with a Tornado Watch still result in the sirens being sounded (just like a Tornado Warning)?

39 minutes ago, nkypete said:

Question - does a Severe Thunderstorm Warning with a Tornado Watch still result in the sirens being sounded (just like a Tornado Warning)?

Tornado sirens are independently controlled by county officials. So unfortunately it can be different everywhere. Officials in Boone County may set off the sirens for 70 mph winds, while the officials in Kenton County may only set them off if a Tornado Warning is issued. 

  • Author

Between the multiple warnings/watches and the sirens going on and off it makes it tough.  

To me "the weather warnings" are the little boy that cries wolf, a lot, several times..

56 minutes ago, nkypete said:

Question - does a Severe Thunderstorm Warning with a Tornado Watch still result in the sirens being sounded (just like a Tornado Warning)?

Yes, they do. In Madison County, when the EOC sounds the warnings, there is also an announcement stating whether it is a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. Even if it is "just" a severe thunderstorm warning, you should heed it. Tornadoes can form without notice very quickly. You don't need a supercell to produce one. A line of severe storms can produce a quick tornado without notice. 

This is the warning that was sent out for the Cincinnati/NKY area by the NWS-Wilmington, OH, office yesterday. I get these for all the warning areas I set up. The blue line is my alert area that I made. It also may be that the alert is just for a certain part of the county. I know here in Madison they sometimes say what part of the county the warning is for. 

s

mapserver.png.71c7c40954a3fcd03fe29cb6040e8cd8.png

 

INC029-115-155-KYC015-037-077-117-OHC015-025-061-142015-
/O.NEW.KILN.SV.W.0057.250414T1930Z-250414T2015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
330 PM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Ohio County in southeastern Indiana...
Southeastern Dearborn County in southeastern Indiana...
Northeastern Switzerland County in southeastern Indiana...
Kenton County in northern Kentucky...
Campbell County in northern Kentucky...
Boone County in northern Kentucky...
Eastern Gallatin County in northern Kentucky...
Central Hamilton County in southwestern Ohio...
Clermont County in southwestern Ohio...
Northwestern Brown County in southwestern Ohio...

* Until 415 PM EDT.

* At 330 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Burlington,
moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
New Richmond, Atwood, Grants Lick, Florence, Dent, Cincinnati, Big
Bone Lick, New Palestine, Covington, Highland Heights, Villa Hills,
Aurora, Crescent Park, Ricedale, Crestview Hills, Miami Heights,
Guilford, Fort Thomas, Quercus Grove, and Hidden Valley.

This includes the following Interstates...
I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 71 and 77.
I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 14.
I-74 in Ohio between mile markers 10 and 19.
I-75 in Kentucky between mile markers 169 and 191.
I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 0 and 12.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 8492 3926 8400 3925 8395 3906 8391
3890 8395 3879 8493
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 266DEG 57KT 3904 8481

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

If you notice near the end of the warning, they still give almost the same advice as they would for a tornado warning. So I would take notice of them both.

You can still have damaging winds without a tornado that can do considerable damage. Another thing to take note of. Sometimes some of the significant damage is caused by flying debris and not from the tornado itself. 

 

Quote

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

 

NWS criteria for Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

A severe thunderstorm is imminent or occurring; it is either detected by weather radar or reported by storm spotters. A severe thunderstorm is one that produces winds 58 mph or stronger and/or hail 1 inch in diameter or larger. A warning means to take shelter.

Tornado Warning;

 A tornado is imminent or occurring; it is either detected by weather radar or reported by storm spotters. A warning means to take shelter.

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