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Ashland vs. Bowling Green Predictions/Updates (KHSAA Boys' Sweet 16®)

Who wins? 30 members have voted

  1. 1. Who wins?

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Ashland (24-7) vs. Bowling Green (29-6)
Series in 2024-25: Bowling Green leads 1-0 (61-55 W on 2/1/25 at neutral site)
Series Overall: Bowling Green leads 2-0
Series in Sweet 16: First Meeting 

Two of the oldest schools in the state, this is just the third meeting between the two, with the first coming in 2021 and the other coming earlier this year.  Ashland is seeking their first appearance in the Sweet 16 semifinals since 2021, when they lost to the eventual champion Highlands.  That's a recurring theme for Ashland, who in their run of seven straight Sweet 16 appearances has been eliminated by the eventual champion four times (2019, 2021, 2023, 2024).  Bowling Green is trying to reach the state semifinals for the fifth time overall, and fourth under D.G. Sherrill.  It would be their first appearance since 2017, when they won their state title. 

The first matchup between the two certainly didn't show Ashland living up to their strength.  The Tomcats shoot more than 50% of their attempts from three, and they hit at a 38.2% clip.  They had the volume in the first matchup, attempting 20 threes, but hit only five.  Zander Carter still managed 21 points to lead Ashland in that game, but was 0/3 from deep.  Worse, they were dominated on the boards by Bowling Green, which is not the most typical result for this Bowling Green team.  Meanwhile, the Purples looked EXACTLY like their themselves in that matchup, hitting 50% from three (5/10) and 55% from the floor (22/40).  Joe Hurt and Luke Idlett led the way that day with 16 apiece, backed up by Braylon Banks with 14.  A notable quasi-absence from that game was Deuce Bailey, who scored only two points.  That Deuce, is not the the Deuce we've seen since the postseason started. 

Ashland enters this game fresh off an 81-64 thrashing of Calloway County.  The Tomcats led that game throughout, only briefly allowing Calloway to pull into a tie in the third quarter.  Ashland shot 32/51 from the field for a 62.7% clip, and were 11/23 (47.8%) from deep.  That is exactly the type of effort they'll have to have again to beat Bowling Green.  (To editorialize quickly - I don't think they can do it again.)  Bowling Green found the opening win to be much tougher.  After opening with two straight threes, they were uncharacteristically ice cold from three, going 1-13 from deep the rest of the way.  But they were able to do enough, shooting a respectable 45.7% from the floor, staying close enough on rebounds, and pulled out a 52-51 win over Adair County in overtime.  One thing the Purples did in that game that was exactly like their usual was force turnovers.  They had 6 steals in forcing 10 turnovers, converting them into 10 points in a game where points were at a premium. 

The question to me is will we see a repeat of these types of performances? Is Ashland likely to shoot that well again? Is Bowling Green likely to shoot that poorly? And if those results reverse - as they did in the first meeting between the two - is there any way for Ashland to win?

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  • Where's my popcorn! ?

  • Nice read @DragonFire! This should be an excellent matchup. Ashland had a great performance against Calloway County with multiple players that took over for stretches in the game and Bowling Green loo

  • Bowling Green 80 Ashland 74 (OT) Final.

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Where's my popcorn! ?

I would take BG over any team so why stop now!

I'm going to do everything I can to make this one in person!  Looking forward to it. 
Ashland is a good team and will be ready to play. But I think BG shoots better the second game and sneaks another win out. 
Go Purples!

The Tomcats are on a roll, winning 11 straight now I believe. I fully believe Ashland has the best player in the Sweet 16, and I expect Ashland and Zander Carter to continue their hot shooting Friday morning/afternoon. Give me the Tomcats all the way to the championship. 

Ashland 69

Bowling Green 62

Nice read @DragonFire! This should be an excellent matchup. Ashland had a great performance against Calloway County with multiple players that took over for stretches in the game and Bowling Green looked impressive scrapping it out against an Adair County team that made the Elite Eight last season and exhibits a lot of toughness.

Interesting breakdown on the history of the series between the schools as I felt (despite the distance) they would have played more often. I was at the game they played in the 2020-2021 season and enjoyed the experience at Bowling Green. Later on I would get to know Turner Buttry, who was on that team, and interviewed him multiple times. He is Christian with high character and has represented the school nicely at EKU.

I think this is one of those games were "something has to give." It was mentioned that Bowling Green forces a lot of turnovers and that they do, but Ashland is also a team that does a great job taking care of the basketball. For example, in their district championship game against a tough Boyd County team, they only had three turnovers and although I am unsure of their average they have several games this year where they have done a great job with the basketball. I have seen games where they will go a full half and only have one turnover. It will be interesting how that factors in with the matchup. Then Ashland shoots the three ball at a high clip, but Bowling Green has the athleticism and ability to disrupt players with great shooting patterns. I think both teams have strong leadership. Bowling Green has six seniors (All of whom are the top scorers on the team) and Ashland has three that are important to their success.

Zander Carter has made tremendous strides over the course of his career at Ashland and is a great leader, both from a verbal perspective and how he strives to be trusted with the ball late in games. Around him are players like Drew Smith, Tyson LaLonde, Preston Hoskins, Caleb Clarke, players that are capable of going off for 20+ in a game. Drew Smith would score 36 against Chapmanville, WV who reached their state tournament. Defensively Ashland has can cause problems with players like Carter and Neel that are quick and can disrupt.

I have hardly seen Bowling Green this year. But I sure do remember two of their players, Deuce Bailey and M.J. Wardlow. Great athletes, first off. The deal between the two schools in that 2020 - 2021 season was Ashland making the trip to Bowling Green to play and then Bowling Green being a part of the Ashland Invitational Tournament the next season. In that event I remember the gutsy play of those two in a win over eventual Elite Eight team Pikeville. Bowling Green had the ball with a chance to score for the game winner. Pikeville played great defense forcing Turner Buttry out for a 25+ foot contested three. It would go off the left side of the rim and looked to go out of bounds - UNTIL Deuce Bailey sprinted to the corner, threw the ball off of a Pikeville player, giving Bowling Green an extra possession. M.J. Wardlow would then hit the game winning three pointer at the buzzer. To make those kind of plays at such a young age told me a lot about them. They didn't just step up when needed, they embraced the opportunity, which is typically not, understandably, seen out of players in their younger years. I'm sure that toughness and grit will be a factor for Bowling Green.

Actually a fun quick story from that AIT, Ashland just introduced electric scooters downtown and the Bowling Green players were having a blast on them. I think we still have film of that somewhere. It was a fun experience.

Onto the coaching. It was long expected that Ryan Bonner would one day step into the shoes of the head coach at Ashland, but he ended up stepping in earlier than expected two seasons ago. Coach Bonner would have the "interim" tag removed from his head coaching position after leading Ashland to the Elite Eight in his first year and then the following season he would lead them back to Rupp as Ashland fought eventual champion Lyon County to a tight battle. This year he hopes to achieve his first Final Four. When Coach Bonner stepped into that role my first thought was that, regardless of how he did, he would not be outworked by anybody. He puts so much dedication into that position and I am glad to see him having success. Coach Sherrill won a state championship in 2017 and always has a strong team at Bowling Green. I didn't just get to meet him, I saw the end of one of his practices when he was motivating the team when they were in the AIT. Great guy and he definitely connects with his players and knows how to get them to buy in. That team had two seniors and no juniors and I watched as he instilled confidence and trust in them when they played

Should be a fun, entertaining matchup between two schools that have been strong representatives for their regions.

 

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Bummed I won’t be able to watch this one - work gets in the way! 

I think this one and Great Crossing/Cooper are the ones to follow today!

Ashland is hot from three, 11-6 Tomcats.

Ashland 33 Bowling Green 29

Halftime.

Great game. My first time seeing Ashland. They are a very sound team. They shot so well in first half. 
BG didn’t play very well but Ashland had a lot to do with that. 
BG fortunate to only be down 4 but they fought to get there. 
Going to be a great 2nd half!

 

 

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