@NWO

Is there a reason these bigger hurricanes seem to hit at night or is that just me overthinking it?

13 hours ago, swamprat said:

FWIW, my home is not in any flood zone, so storm surge is not a factor. However, it is a manufactured home in a retirement community and very susceptible to wind damage. I expect many insurance companies in this area to go bankrupt before they get to me. There is no point in getting scared all bent out of shape about it at this point. Just need to get Mrs. S to safety, hope for the best, and make due with whatever happens.

Prayers for safety to you and all those facing this storm.

3 hours ago, No Hiding Here....BC 21 said:

@NWO

Is there a reason these bigger hurricanes seem to hit at night or is that just me overthinking it?

It's just coincidence, but I've definitely had the same thought multiple times. 

Let's hope that as the storm cycles in intensity, it's on a downward cycle at landfall. 

From Dennis Phillips (Chief Meteorologist at WFTS-TV in Tampa Bay.) 

 

Important Milton Update: (We've got some stuff to cover here folks, strap in!)

 

1. Ok, here is the latest. As you can see, we are starting to get some agreement on the models. (Finally). They show landfall from the Skyway to the Southern end of Manatee County. The NHC track pretty much mirrors this. That being said, most Floridians know "wobbles" are 100% unpredictable. No model (or human) can actually predict where they occur. However, most Floridians know those wobbles often are East of the center and have a tendency to go the the right. We've seen it SO many times before. (Charley, Irma, Ian, Idalia, and even Helene 2 weeks ago)

 

2. Hurricane winds will likely extend about 50 miles from the eye when it approaches our area. Right now, hurricane winds extend 30 miles from the center. Milton will get bigger over the next 36 hours. It's currently experiencing an ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) which temporarily weakens the storm. That's why the winds are down. Once complete, it's certainly possible Milton can strengthen again. Although, I DO NOT expect it to regain its strength from yesterday. That's just my opinion. Could it? Sure. But I don't think it happens for a number of reasons. Either way, Milton WILL be a powerful hurricane when it impacts our area. For the record, the NHC now has it as a Cat THREE hurricane at landfall. That's lower than yesterday which is great news!

 

3. Surge is still a MASSIVE concern. Highest surge totals will be at, and just to the South of the point of landfall. So a Manatee County surge would limit the height of the surge in Pinellas and the Bay. However, just a small tick to the North and those areas would be right in the thick of it. If you're in an evacuation zone, DO SO. No mincing words here. People who live along the coast and do not evacuate are risking their lives. The threat of wind is MUCH lower than the threat of water with this (and most storms).

 

4. Let's talk about winds. In my opinion. most of the area will see winds between 65 and 90 mph. VERY strong winds. Power outages will be widespread. Trees will fall. Some roofs will have issues as well. Lots of blue tarps are expected in the coming weeks. However, the extreme winds will be in a very small area. I'm talking 5 to 7 miles. They will probably occur near the eye and in the NORTHERN eyewall. Shear IS going to weaken Milton. The storm will look cut in half at landfall. However, the Northern eyewall, which will be over Pinellas and Hillsborough counties, will contain extreme wind gusts. Not sustained, but gusts to nearly 100 mph. This is something we will watch very closely. A change or wobble in track could easily move this band 20 miles North or South. Again, this is unpredictable and why it's important to keep following us here as well as on ABC Action News - WFTS - Tampa Bay Once the storm moves inland, areas in Polk and Desoto counties will also see hurricane-force wind gusts. I suspect they even reach Orlando as well.

 

5. I have posted and will post again, a great list of things to have ready as the storm nears. You still have ALL DAY today and tomorrow morning to get things done. The strongest winds don't arrive until Wednesday evening and overnight.

 

6. Rule #7. Now it NOT the time to freak out. It's the time for action. We have work to do to protect our families. We have work to do to protect our neighbors, our friends, our community. The stress level is massive. You CAN do this. We still have a day and a half to get ready for Milton. Floridians are strongest when things get the worst. We WILL get through this. And we will do it, TOGETHER. Updates 24/7.

 

7. As for colleges and universities, if kids are still planning on coming home today, expect massive delays on the roads. Take that into consideration if you're planning on having your kids leave school to go home. Florida State University and Florida A&M University will be fine. University of Florida should be fine as well. University of South Florida, The University of Tampa, and University of Central Florida will all experience hurricane-force wind gusts. UT will also have a significant surge risk. Do NOT let your kids stay if they are in a mandatory flood zone along the river. At this point, Florida Gulf Coast University is on the fringe of the heavy winds but a track change could change that. Make sure they stay vigilant.

 

#FloridaStrong

Here is what Dennis posted regarding the models. Back to loading the truck.

 

@nWo, consensus? 

6 hours ago, No Hiding Here....BC 21 said:

@NWO

Is there a reason these bigger hurricanes seem to hit at night or is that just me overthinking it?

They hit in both day and night time. 

43 minutes ago, swamprat said:

@nWo, consensus? 

This is what the very latest GEFS Ensemble model is showing. The Tampa Bay area is in line to take a direct hit from Milton. Could be anywhere from late Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning.

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Sequences of microwave images and recent Hurricane Hunter
observations suggest that Milton completed an eyewall replacement
overnight, and the new eyewall has contracted down from 22 n mi to
12 nm in diameter.  However, it does not appear that the hurricane
weakened much after the eyewall replacement, and it could have
rebounded with the outer eyewall contraction.  A dropsonde released
by the NOAA P-3 in the northeastern eyewall recently measured an
average wind of 156 kt in the lowest 150 m of the sounding, which
equates to an intensity of 130 kt.  The latest pressure reported by
the planes is 929 mb.

The recent aircraft fixes show that Milton has turned a bit
leftward and is moving toward the east-northeast (065/8 kt).  
Milton is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating 
later today as it moves between a trough digging into the Gulf of 
Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles.  The track guidance 
is honed in on a landfall along the west-central coast of Florida 
sometime Wednesday night.  However, it is critical to remember that 
even at 36-48 hours away, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an 
average of 60-70 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact 
landfall location, especially if the hurricane wobbles as it 
approaches the coast.  After landfall, Milton is forecast to cross 
Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on Thursday.

Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it 
moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of 
Florida.  Stronger vertical shear is expected to set in about 24 
hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will not be 
enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane 
when it reaches shore.  Additionally, the first stages of 
extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching 
the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the 
rate of weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top 
end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models, 
since these models should have a better handle on a potential 
positive trough interaction.

Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall.  Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast
cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation
and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their
local emergency management officials.  Evacuations and other 
preparations should be completed today.  Milton has the potential to
be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm 
surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the 
northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today.

2. A large area of destructive storm surge,  with highest 
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the 
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula.  If you are in the 
Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening 
situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local 
officials.  There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on 
Wednesday. 

3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of 
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in 
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.  
Preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for 
long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight.

4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday 
brings the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding along 
with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where 
coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood 
threat.

 

 

Tampa mayor is telling everyone to evacuate. She has given a grave warning that if you stay, you will die!

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — As the Gulf Coast prepares for yet another strong hurricane, Tampa Bay officials are urging residents to take evacuation orders seriously, especially if they live anywhere near the coast.

Hurricane Milton poses a threat to the region that likely no one in the region has ever seen in their lifetimes, as the last time the Tampa area was hit by the eye of a major hurricane was on Oct. 25, 1921. The hurricane had no official name but is known locally as the Tarpon Springs storm, for the seaside town where it came ashore.

https://www.wfla.com/news/hillsborough-county/you-are-going-to-die-tampa-mayor-issues-grave-warning-about-ignoring-milton-evacuation-orders/

 

I finally figured how to post this storm surge watch/warning map.

This one could be so bad that veteran meteorologist gets emotional.

 

Let's not forget the other possible dangerous aspect that could come from Milton.

 

 Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1201 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
   PENINSULA AND KEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and
   Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of
   Mexico and Florida on Wednesday into early Thursday.

   ...Florida...

   The latest National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane
   Milton to make landfall along the west-central Florida coast
   Wednesday night or early Thursday. As the hurricane tracks northeast
   across the eastern Gulf on Wednesday, low to midlevel southeasterly
   flow will increase across the Keys and Peninsula. This will result
   in increasing SRH and enlarged, looping low-level hodographs amid a
   very moist airmass (mid 70s F dewpoints). The increasing flow field
   across Florida will coincide with peak heating, resulting in
   sufficient instability to maintain isolated stronger updrafts within
   outer rainbands that may approach the area by afternoon. Favorable
   conditions for a few tropical cyclone related tornadoes will persist
   into the nighttime hours.