At this point it's almost too late to leave if you're going very far. The interstates are gridlocked.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 081742
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
100 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT MILTON'S INTENSITY 
HAS REBOUNDED...
...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR
FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 88.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

 

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 88.2 West.  Although Milton has 
been wobbling during the past few hours, its longer-term motion is 
toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the
northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin
later today and continue through Thursday.  On the forecast track,
the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and
approach the west-central coast of Florida through Wednesday.  The
center is likely to make landfall along the west-central coast of
Florida on Wednesday night, and move east-northeastward across
central Florida through Thursday.

Aircraft reconnaissance data and satellite images indicate that 
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the 
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  While fluctuations in 
intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely 
dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 923 mb
(27.26 inches).

 

 

Tampa could see potential storm surge of 9 ft+.

 

Milton is regaining strength and may become a Cat. 5 storm again.  Look at the eye reforming.

The GOES satellite imagery is always fascinating. 

This is simply unbelievable!

000
WTNT64 KNHC 082130
TCUAT4

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
430 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...AIRCRAFT MEASURES VERY LOW PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON...

Recent observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft indicate the central pressure in the eye of Milton has 
fallen to an estimated 905 mb (26.72 inches).  The aircraft 
observations also indicate that the maximum sustained winds are 
near 165 mph (270 km/h).

Hurricane Wilma has the lowest ever recorded of 882 mb. Milton is as of now at 905 mb!

 

Wilma was a classic October hurricane which struck South Florida as a Category 3 hurricane on October 24th, 2005. Wilma developed from a tropical depression near Jamaica, a typical source region for October tropical cyclones, on the afternoon of October 15, 2005.

 

https://www.weather.gov/mfl/wilma#:~:text=Wilma was a classic October,afternoon of October 15%2C 2005.

1. A large area of destructive storm surge,  with highest
inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the
west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula.  If you are in the
Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening
situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local
officials.  There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on
Wednesday.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for
long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.

4. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge with
destructive waves will continue across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.

 

Just look at this image!

 

000
WTNT44 KNHC 090855
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Milton has been maintaining its strength as a catastrophic category
5 hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Satellite and
Doppler radar images indicate that the major hurricane has a
compact, symmetric, and very powerful inner core.  Based on
aircraft data, the minimum pressure has dropped to 907 mb and the
maximum sustained winds remain near 140 kt.  The wind field of
Milton is gradually expanding, and the wind radii have been adjusted
based on a combination of the Hurricane Hunter data and ASCAT
passes.  There is an area of heavy rain beginning to spread across
portions of southwestern and west-central Florida out ahead of
Milton, and weather conditions will steadily deteriorate across
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast throughout the day.

Milton is moving northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between a mid-
to upper-level trough over the northern Gulf and a ridge located
over the Greater Antilles.  This motion should generally continue
until Milton makes landfall in Florida, which is likely to occur
late tonight or early Thursday morning.  After the hurricane reaches
the coast, a turn to the east-northeast is expected as another
trough approaches the system from the west.  Milton should exit
Florida and move over the Atlantic waters Thursday afternoon and
accelerate eastward after that.  The NHC track forecast is nudged a
little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement
with the latest models.  It should be noted that this forecast is
based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which
appear to be too far south.  Users are urged not to focus on the
exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40
miles.

The global models agree that vertical wind shear is expected begin 
to increase over Milton later today, and that should cause some
weakening.  However, there is high confidence that Milton will 
remain a very dangerous hurricane when it reaches Florida, and 
maintain hurricane status as it moves across the state.  The 
cyclone is expected to become extratropical over the Atlantic on 
Friday and gradually weaken.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar 
to the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance.

Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size while 
it moves across Florida.  Additionally, a large region of tropical 
storm and hurricane-force winds could occur on the northwest/back 
side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal 
boundary and beginning extratropical transition.  Damaging winds,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well
outside the forecast cone.  This is a very serious situation and
residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local
emergency management officials.  Evacuations and other preparations
should be rushed to completion.  Milton has the potential to be one
of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.

 

 

1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations
of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central
coast of the Florida Peninsula.  If you are in the Storm Surge
Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and
you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local
officials.

2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the
Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the
peninsula.  Preparations to protect life and property, including
being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to
completion.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in
areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the
overall flood threat.

 

 

 

 

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   As Hurricane Milton moves across the Florida Peninsula today,
   several tornadoes will be likely across parts of the central and
   southern Florida Peninsula, into the Florida Keys.

   ...Florida Peninsula/Florida Keys...
   The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to
   continue moving toward the western coast of the Florida Peninsula
   today. As the hurricane approaches this morning, scattered
   thunderstorms within the outer bands will move across the southern
   and central Florida Peninsula. Later in the afternoon, a second band
   of convection is forecast to move across the southern and central
   Florida Peninsula. A boundary associated with a relatively tight
   thermal gradient will be located from south of Tampa Bay extending
   east-northeastward to near Orlando. South of the boundary, afternoon
   RAP forecast soundings in and west of the Lake Okeechobee area
   suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. In
   addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the same area is
   forecast to be in the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range, with long and looping
   hodographs. This will favor supercell development with a potential
   for tornadoes. The HRRR suggests that cells within the second band
   will remain semi-discrete. All of this points to the possibility for
   a relatively confined tornado cluster this afternoon in the area to
   the west and north of Lake Okeechobee. A strong tornado or two could
   occur during the mid to late afternoon, when instability and shear
   will be locally maximized. The tornado threat is expected to persist
   through the late afternoon and into the evening as the band moves to
   the eastern coast of Florida.

 

 

 

 

Tampa General Hospital is a 1000 bed Level 1 Trauma hospital located on the tip of Davis Island in downtown Tampa.

TGH has deployed their AquaFence and does not plan to evacuate patients or staff off premises. They are moving patients and staff from 1st floor up, though. The AquaFence performed well 2 weeks ago when Helene went through, holding off 7 foot storm surge. It is designed to hold off a 15 foot storm surge, so the test is coming. They have their own well and water storage facility in case the city water system fails. They have their own power station that is also separate from the main power grid. It is housed in a facility adjacent to the hospital and the station itself, is 33 feet above sea level.

My sister is a nurse in Bay Care's ICU e-care facility in the Bay Care Operations center. My niece took her to work this morning. Sis will stay at the BCO until the storm has passed and all emergency services are no longer needed.

My daughter is evacuating to her in-laws. My son is staying hunkered down with my grandson in Apopka, and my granddaughter is assisting my daughter-in-law at a shelter in Sanford, an elementary school she is principle of. 

 

382 
WTNT34 KNHC 091456
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM MILTON BEGINNING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...THE TIME TO PREPARE, INCLUDING EVACUATE IF TOLD DO SO, IS
QUICKLY COMING TO AN END ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 84.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 84.3 West.  Milton is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A northeastward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through this
evening.  A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on
Thursday and Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Milton
will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall
along the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move off the
east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Milton is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of
Florida tonight, and remain at hurricane strength while it moves
across the Florida peninsula through Thursday.  Gradual weakening
is forecast while Milton moves eastward over the western Atlantic,
and it is likely to become an extratropical storm by early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A NOAA saildrone (SD-1083) located approximately 80 miles
northeast of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph
(71 km/h) with a gust of 57 mph (91 km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter data is 931 mb (27.50 inches).

 

000
WTNT34 KNHC 091755
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON GROWING IN SIZE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF 
FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS 
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

 

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 84.0 West.  Milton is moving
toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A turn toward the 
northeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected this evening 
and tonight.  A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected 
on Thursday and Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Milton
will make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida tonight, 
cross the Florida peninsula overnight and early Thursday, and move 
off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean on 
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Milton is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of
Florida tonight, and remain at hurricane strength while it moves
across the Florida peninsula through Thursday.  Gradual weakening is
forecast while Milton moves eastward over the western Atlantic, and
it is likely to become an extratropical storm by early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the 
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 250 miles 
(280 km), especially to the north. A NOAA saildrone (SD-1083) 
located about 50 miles east of the center recently reported a 
sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a wind gust of 70 mph (112 
km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter data is 944 mb (27.88 inches).