Data indicates that a storm with this potential intensity has not affected the Tampa area in the last century. Everyone ought to be getting ready in case there is catastrophic damage.

Here is the very latest from the National Hurricane Center-Miami 5 am EDT update:

 

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 92.6 West. Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).

Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A dangerous storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of the coast of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so.

Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

 

 

 

Milton will also pose a possible tornado threat for portions of Florida.

 

Primary forecast concern for Wednesday is the evolution of Hurricane Milton, which is currently expected to move across the FL Peninsula Wednesday evening/night. The airmass across the central/southern FL Peninsula will likely be characterized by low to mid-70s dewpoints. This low-level moisture should be sufficient for enough buoyancy to support some deeper, more persistent updrafts, particularly during the afternoon when some daytime heating is also possible. Wind fields are also expected to increase substantially during this time. The resulting combination of buoyancy and shear will support the risk for tornadoes within the convective rainbands of Milton.

Milton is fast becoming a dangerous hurricane. It has already intensified into a category 3 hurricane.

 

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW MILTON RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... .

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further strengthening is expected, and Milton is forecast to become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane later today and maintain that intensity for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches) based on Air Force dropsonde data.

Dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A life-threatening storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm surges and hurricane watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula, and residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so.

Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

 

If you remember, this model was showing different tracks for Milton. This is what it is showing now. It is pretty certain that the Tampa area will take a close if not a direct hit.

 

 

 

Milton will likely be a Cat 5 at some point today. Hopefully the shear will weaken it significantly before landfall. 

Milton is now a Cat 4 at the 11 am EDT update:

Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing. Satellite images show a small eye within the very cold central cloud cover, and the eye is becoming better defined. Data from the Mexican radar at Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with an intense eyewall presentation. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier reported a peak flight-level wind of 146 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to around 933 mb, which is down about 22 mb in 4 hours. The initial wind speed is set to 135 kt, which is an 80-kt increase in 24 hours (only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix 2007 in our records).

The hurricane is still moving east-southeastward, now about 8 kt. Global models continue to insist that Milton will turn eastward soon as the frontal low pressure area over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico departs. The new forecast near Mexico is about the same as the previous one, but is close enough to bring hurricane-force winds to the northern portion of Yucatan Peninsula. Later, a new mid-level trough dropping into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should then cause Milton to move east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed. The latest model fields are a bit left of the previous runs, and the official NHC track forecast is shifted to the north. This forecast is close to a consensus of the latest GFS, ECMWF and regional hurricane models. Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the model trackers which appear to be too far south.

Milton is likely to become a category 5 hurricane later today with light shear and very warm waters in its path. By tomorrow, its intensity should be dictated by any eyewall replacement cycles, which will likely cause the system to gradually weaken but grow larger.After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland. After landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical transition, which should be complete by 96 h.

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A life-threatening storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Notification from Pinellas County Emergency Information ...

Pinellas County has issued an evacuation order for all residential healthcare facilities within Zone A, B and C. The mandatory orders are only for these facilities, but Pinellas County is encouraging voluntary evacuation for residents in Zone A, B and C and mobile homes in advance of possible mandatory orders Monday.

Otherwise, everything is business as usual around here. I took Mrs. S to an imaging center adjacent to Morton Plant hospital this morning for a PET scan. Although the hospital is getting ready for evacuation, there was not noticeable increase in activity.

Evacuation of Bay Pines VA hospital started yesterday and should be completed by sometime this afternoon. The patients are being sent to other VA hospitals outside the cone or where the storm will be of lesser strength, mostly to Orlando, Ocala, and Palm Beach.   

Our plan is to go to my sister's place tomorrow evening. I am going there today to finish putting up her storm shutters. 

 

News is reporting Milton is now a category 5 hurricane. This thing must have ate it's Wheaties today. 

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS...
...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL 
OFFICIALS...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
100 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS...
...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL 
OFFICIALS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located 
by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 
21.7 North, longitude 91.3 West. Milton is moving toward the east 
near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected today followed 
by a turn toward the east-northeast and northeast on Tuesday and 
Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or 
just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross 
the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the 
Florida Peninsula by Wednesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 
175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts.  Milton is a potentially 
catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane 
Wind Scale.  While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is 
forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall 
in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80
miles (130 km).

 

5 pm EDT update:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 072058
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142024
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Satellite images indicate that Milton is quite a powerful hurricane.
The small eye has become even more distinct than earlier today, and
radar data from Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with a very 
strong eyewall presentation.  On the last fix before the plane
departed a few hours ago, the Air Force Hurricane Hunter crew
reported that the pressure had fallen to 911 mb, which is 77 mb
lower than yesterday at the same time, with other data to support
150 kt.  Since the satellite imagery continues to show
intensification, the initial wind speed is set to 155 kt, and a pair
of Hurricane Hunters should be in the area this evening for more 
information.

The hurricane is moving eastward at about 9 kt.  Milton should move 
close to the northern portion of Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early 
Tuesday ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into the northwestern 
Gulf of Mexico.  This feature should then cause Milton to move 
east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed 
later on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Little change was made to the 
previous forecast, with the latest model guidance very close to the 
previous forecast cycle, and this forecast remains close to a 
consensus of the latest GFS, ECMWF and regional hurricane models. 
Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the 
model trackers which appear to be too far south.

Milton could strengthen even more tonight with light shear and 
very warm waters providing a conducive environment.  However, radar 
data indicate that Milton could be at the beginning of an eyewall 
replacement cycle, with some signs of a moat and a partial outer 
eyewall.  The evolution will likely cause the system to gradually 
weaken on Tuesday but grow larger.  On Wednesday, Milton is expected 
to encounter a less favorable environment with strong shear and dry 
air entrainment, with further weakening forecast.  Regardless, the 
system is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall 
in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well 
inland.  Residents in Florida should closely follow the orders from 
their local emergency management officials, as Milton has the 
potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record 
for west-central Florida.

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge 
with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern 
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.   

2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely 
dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on 
Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along 
parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.  This is an 
extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas 
should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate 
immediately if told to do so.

3. Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along 
portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is 
in effect.  Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses 
the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, 
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion 
of the entire Florida Peninsula.  Preparations to protect life and 
property in the warning areas should be complete by Tuesday night 
since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this 
area early Wednesday. 

4. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today 
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to 
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This 
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal 
flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river 
flooding.

 

Storm shutters are up at my sister's place. I took most of our perishable food over there Yesterday.

Traffic was horrendous going north today. US19, the Suncoast Parkway, I-275, I-75, US41, and US301 all jammed up. I took the BaySide bridge up to FL580 to get to my sister's to avoid the traffic and an 45 minute drive took me over 2 hours. Tomorrow may be worse. 

Thorton's has boarded up all of their stations. Shell, WaWa's, Mobile, Circle K, and 7-11 are still open, but the lines are backed up on to the roadways. The RaceTracks and Speedway's I went by on my way home today were all out of gas. I know at least one WaWa's is out of gas. 

There is not much else to do here, but get clothes, drugs, and important papers together. We will pack up Mrs. S's concentrator, pillows, and all else and head over to my sister's place tomorrow afternoon. I also took all of my Ryobi tools to my sister's. I have a feeling I'm going to need all of them here in the next week. 

From Pinellas Count Emergency Information site...

Pinellas County is in the potential path of Hurricane Milton and could experience life-threatening storm surge, localized flooding and hurricane force winds, depending on where the storm makes landfall on Wednesday.

Pinellas County has issued a mandatory evacuation order for everyone in Zone A, B and C, and all mobile homes. Earlier the County announced evacuations for special needs residents and residential health care facilities in these zones.  Check your evacuation zone.

Mandatory evacuations for special needs residents is underway.

Six public shelters are open, including shelters for people with special needs or pets 

FWIW, my home is not in any flood zone, so storm surge is not a factor. However, it is a manufactured home in a retirement community and very susceptible to wind damage. I expect many insurance companies in this area to go bankrupt before they get to me. There is no point in getting scared all bent out of shape about it at this point. Just need to get Mrs. S to safety, hope for the best, and make due with whatever happens.

My daughter-in-law is a principle of an elementary school in Sanford. It will server as a storm shelter for that area. She and my granddaughter (that baby I was holding almost 17 years ago) will be working the storm there. 

 

1 hour ago, swamprat said:

FWIW, my home is not in any flood zone, so storm surge is not a factor. However, it is a manufactured home in a retirement community and very susceptible to wind damage. I expect many insurance companies in this area to go bankrupt before they get to me. There is no point in getting scared all bent out of shape about it at this point. Just need to get Mrs. S to safety, hope for the best, and make do with whatever happens.

Stay safe

5 am EDT update 10/8/24:

The structure of Milton has changed significantly overnight.  The
pinhole eye seen yesterday has filled and earlier aircraft data
showed a double eyewall structure.  More recent microwave images
show only one larger eyewall, and it is clear that Milton is
completing an eyewall replacement cycle.  These eyewall replacement
cycles are common in strong hurricanes and often cause the peak
winds to fluctuate, while the wind field generally expands.  Based
on the aircraft data from a few hours ago, the initial intensity is
set at 135 kt.  Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate Milton again later this morning.

The major hurricane is beginning to gain latitude, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 075/10 kt.  A turn to the northeast with
a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today and
Wednesday as the hurricane moves in the flow between a trough
digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater
Antilles.  This motion should take the core of Milton to
west-central Florida Wednesday night.  After the hurricane passes
Florida, a faster east-northeastward motion is expected within a
more zonal steering flow.  Little change was made to the track
forecast through landfall, but this prediction is a little slower
while the system enters and moves over the Atlantic.

Fluctuations in strength due to continued structural changes are
likely during the next day or so while Milton moves across the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.  An increase in vertical wind
shear will likely cause some weakening before the hurricane reaches
Florida, but there is high confidence that Milton will remain an
extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches the state.  After
landfall, more notable weakening is forecast and Milton is now
expected to become extratropical by day 3 when it is over the
Atlantic.  The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the
model guidance in best agreement with the hurricane regional models.

Milton is still a relatively compact hurricane, but the wind field
is expected to continue to grow in size as it approaches Florida.
In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and
tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it
makes landfall.  Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm
surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast
cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation
and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their
local emergency management officials.  Milton has the potential to
be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central
Florida.

 

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge
with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today.

2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along
parts of the west coast of Florida.  This is an extremely
life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should
follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if
told to do so.

3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of
the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect.
Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida
Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in
gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula.
Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas
should be complete by tonight.

4. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of
Florida well ahead of Milton through early Thursday.  This rainfall
brings the risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial
flooding along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding will
be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to
increase the overall threat.