On 1/8/2024 at 6:41 PM, theguru said:

Right.  Nothing to do with these current systems but weather forecasting always leans to doom and gloom and it is wrong entirely too much. 

Two things cause this.....

The first, people post long-range models with ridiculous data in order to get clicks. Any forecast beyond three days is mostly useless, and with winter weather, the window is more like 24-36 hours. 

Kind of piggy backing on that point, when it comes to winter weather specifically, the general public clearly doesn't understand how nearly impossible it is to predict precipitation amounts in winter weather systems. Literally half a degree can make the difference between snow and rain. You could get a foot of snow in Covington and none in Florence. Meteorologists are tasked with warning people of what could be, and when it doesn't amount to that, they get raked over the coals. 

11 minutes ago, TheDeuce said:

Two things cause this.....

The first, people post long-range models with ridiculous data in order to get clicks. Any forecast beyond three days is mostly useless, and with winter weather, the window is more like 24-36 hours. 

Kind of piggy backing on that point, when it comes to winter weather specifically, the general public clearly doesn't understand how nearly impossible it is to predict precipitation amounts in winter weather systems. Literally half a degree can make the difference between snow and rain. You could get a foot of snow in Covington and none in Florence. Meteorologists are tasked with warning people of what could be, and when it doesn't amount to that, they get raked over the coals. 

I know on all that and what I always tell people is the same thing about the 24-36 hour window or more specifically the 12-18 hour window.

2 hours ago, theguru said:

I know on all that and what I always tell people is the same thing about the 24-36 hour window or more specifically the 12-18 hour window.

 

2 hours ago, TheDeuce said:

Two things cause this.....

The first, people post long-range models with ridiculous data in order to get clicks. Any forecast beyond three days is mostly useless, and with winter weather, the window is more like 24-36 hours. 

Kind of piggy backing on that point, when it comes to winter weather specifically, the general public clearly doesn't understand how nearly impossible it is to predict precipitation amounts in winter weather systems. Literally half a degree can make the difference between snow and rain. You could get a foot of snow in Covington and none in Florence. Meteorologists are tasked with warning people of what could be, and when it doesn't amount to that, they get raked over the coals. 

To go further, it's better to be wrong on the side of caution. Better to predict too much and have everyone prepared than to predict to little or none at all and get blasted. Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.

I'm just disappointed that for whatever reason, there seems to be an anti-snow dome that's been hanging out over NKY for the last decade or so. Snow happens all around us, but we just don't see anything.

2 minutes ago, rjs4470 said:

To go further, it's better to be wrong on the side of caution. Better to predict too much and have everyone prepared than to predict to little or none at all and get blasted. Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.

I couldn't disagree with you more and I would fire anyone on the spot that took that approach. 

11 minutes ago, theguru said:

I couldn't disagree with you more and I would fire anyone on the spot that took that approach. 

So you’d rather have no warning and wake up to a foot of snow than expect a foot and get nothing?

Just now, TheDeuce said:

So you’d rather have no warning and wake up to a foot of snow than expect a foot and get nothing?

I want an objective, straight down the middle forecast with no manipulation by anyone that thinks the end justifies the means. 

11 minutes ago, theguru said:

I want an objective, straight down the middle forecast with no manipulation by anyone that thinks the end justifies the means. 

I don't know how much manipulation is going on. Everybody uses the same models, it's just how it's interpreted, but even then most forecasters numbers are similar. And like @TheDeuce said, things change so rapidly, that it's tough to know for sure almost right up until a day or so before. The problem is cities, towns and people need more time to prep for a big winter storm than 12 hours. Which is why we see and hear about the "possibility" up to a week in advance. And really, most of the forecasters I see and hear try to remain conservative and really don't start talking numbers until 48-72 hours out.

Regardless in most things I do, I also plan for the worst case scenario and if it doesn't happen, I'm golden. I don't have a problem if the weather forecasters take the same approach.

3 minutes ago, rjs4470 said:

I don't know how much manipulation is going on. Everybody uses the same models, it's just how it's interpreted, but even then most forecasters numbers are similar. And like @TheDeuce said, things change so rapidly, that it's tough to know for sure almost right up until a day or so before. The problem is cities, towns and people need more time to prep for a big winter storm than 12 hours. Which is why we see and hear about the "possibility" up to a week in advance. And really, most of the forecasters I see and here try to remain conservative and really don't start talking numbers until 48-72 hours out.

Regardless in most things I do, I also plan for the worst case scenario and if it doesn't happen, I'm golden. I don't have a problem if the weather forecasters take the same approach.

I know, I know, the subjective review of objective material. 

It looks like as of now, the cold air digs deep into SEC territory this weekend.  As a result, Northern Kentucky looks to be staying clear of any accumulating snow. 

2 hours ago, sportsfan41 said:

It looks like as of now, the cold air digs deep into SEC territory this weekend.  As a result, Northern Kentucky looks to be staying clear of any accumulating snow. 

NKY, the no snow zone.

 

30 minutes ago, rjs4470 said:

NKY, the no snow zone.

 

I was outside sunning today and thinking the same thing about the lack of snow.  Works for me.

6 hours ago, theguru said:

I was outside sunning today and thinking the same thing about the lack of snow.  Works for me.

If the ground is going to be frozen I prefer a little snow to go along with it.  Cold and gray is just dreary. 

Snow accumulation predictions can differ between model runs. The 00z run of the GFS has almost no accumulation totals for northern Kentucky. The 06z run from this morning shows 3-5". The Canadian is showing 5-6". These totals are using the Kuchera Ratio for predicting snow, which I've found to be more accurate for our area. Now, if you switch to the older 10:1 Ratio it is showing little to no accumulations for northern Kentucky. This is what most use.

The 10:1 uses the rationale that every 10 inches of snow is equal to 1 inch of water. The Kuchera tries to factor in the temperature difference between the different levels of the atmosphere. I believe it also tries to factor in the difference that topography makes in snowfall. 

So in essence, when I make my forecast, I take an average of several recent model runs from different models to come up with my totals. Now I can't speak on how the professionals do it but for what it's worth I thought I would post how I do it. 

I forgot to mention that this is for the second system, starting Sunday evening through Tuesday. Then there is another system coming through that will end next week. 

The modeling data indicates that the overall snowfall accumulations are in good accord, as everyone can see in the following figures. One difference in the period is that with the NAM it doesn't reach out as far in the future as the mid-range models.  They do differ in the track of the storm. The NAM is through 1 a.m. Tuesday. While the others go out on Wednesday at 1 a.m.

 

 

 

This is a new German weather model. I've seen reports that in Europe it is considered more accurate than the Euro. 

 

I'll make my next call tomorrow morning.