I posted at the end of December that changes are coming to Kentucky in mid-January. This is an update to that. On Friday, the 12th, a low-pressure system will start to move toward Kentucky from the Texas and Louisiana areas. It will strengthen as it approaches Kentucky. The precipitation will start as rain. As the low gains strength, cold air will wrap around it and turn the rain into snow late Friday or early Saturday. It could bring blizzard conditions to the Great Lakes area and western Pennsylvania during the day on Saturday. 

There will be a second system located off the coast of Washington that looks like our second chance at snow accumulation. It will travel down the spine of the Rocky Mountains and reach Texas on Monday. This, plus a high-pressure system that will pass after the first system, will cause a secondary low-pressure system to form around Louisiana and Arkansas. With cold air already in place as this system moves toward our area, the precipitation should be all snow. Temperatures will be some of the coldest we have seen so far this winter, with below-zero temperatures possible. We could also see windchills in double digits below zero by the end of the period early on Wednesday, the 17th. 

The continental map shows all of this. Let me add that it appears that the map is jumping, and this makes it look like the systems on the map are skipping around. This is because there are 3 hours between frames. I have also included the 500mb height anomaly map.

 

This map shows simulated radar.

 

Next, I want to show everyone the temperature and wind chill maps.

 

 

 

Lastly, I providing the possible total snow accumulation maps. One is the 10:1 (in) ratio and the last one is from the Kuchera (In). Let me emphasize that these are for informational purposes only and are not to be taken as an actual forecast of snow accumulation.

 

 

I will be updating everyone as we approach the period. 

Oh my.

4 hours ago, nkypete said:

Oh my.

I will be surprised if those totals stay that high. 

15 hours ago, nWo said:

I will be surprised if those totals stay that high. 

The way things have been the last few years, I'd be surprised if we have any snow at all.

29 minutes ago, rjs4470 said:

The way things have been the last few years, I'd be surprised if we have any snow at all.

Right.  Nothing to do with these current systems but weather forecasting always leans to doom and gloom and it is wrong entirely too much. 

47 minutes ago, rjs4470 said:

The way things have been the last few years, I'd be surprised if we have any snow at all.

 

17 minutes ago, theguru said:

Right.  Nothing to do with these current systems but weather forecasting always leans to doom and gloom and it is wrong entirely too much. 

It's been a couple of years since we've seen the North American Oscillation in a negative phase. It was around February 2021 when we had the tri-state ice storm. Also, I believe Louisville was hit with a snowstorm that year.  Look at the bottom row of the following chart. It shows that through December, the NAO is in a negative phase.  Higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude. The negative phase allows cold air to plunge into the midwestern and eastern United States 

3 minutes ago, nWo said:

It's been a couple of years since we've seen the North American Oscillation in a negative phase. 

I don't know what that is, but it sounds really bad.

4 minutes ago, theguru said:

I don't know what that is, but it sounds really bad.

It will allow the very cold Arctic air from around the north pole to dive into our area next week. We may be seeing this into February. This arctic air usually stays in northern Canada. When we see it go into a negative phase, the block weakens, and this allows that very cold air to move into our region. This is what may be causing the possibility of below-zero temperatures next week.

Thanks @nWo!

I forgot to add that it doesn't mean we'll see below-zero temps through February, but we will probably see another shot or two of this type of cold. Also, this is when the possibility of larger snow accumulations will exist. 

9 minutes ago, nWo said:

I forgot to add that it doesn't mean we'll see below-zero temps through February, but we will probably see another shot or two of this type of cold. Also, this is when the possibility of larger snow accumulations will exist. 

Thanks for the additional and you have me interested because this is educational. 

On Friday, the first system will reach Kentucky. Friday afternoon temperatures will begin in the low 50s, which means rain will begin to fall. On Friday night, the temperature will drop into the mid-20s. Rain will turn to snow as a result of this. It's possible to get one to three inches. Saturday's highs won't rise above the 20s.

On Sunday, much colder air will enter Kentucky. For much of Kentucky, highs are expected to be in the teens, and for eastern Kentucky, they will likely be in the low 20s. This will prepare Kentucky for the second system's arrival. A considerably colder arctic blast will move toward Kentucky as it gets closer. This will result in lows of zero degrees in several parts of Kentucky, mostly in the west. West of Interstate 65, windchills may drop to the upper teens below zero. Monday lows in the single digits east of I-65. It is predicted that snow will start to fall in western Kentucky on Sunday afternoon and spread eastward throughout the state. It will be possible for additional accumulations of 6 to 9 inches.

 

 

First alerts of possible snow accumulations In contrast to earlier predictions, it now looks like the first system will shift further north of Kentucky. On Friday, most of the precipitation will fall as rain. As the low-pressure system passes over the Great Lakes, enough cold air will swirl around it that it could cause less than an inch of accumulation by Saturday.

 

 

It is still predicted that the second setup will approach Kentucky from the west and might potentially hamper traffic for a few days, from Sunday afternoon until Tuesday night. A low will be located close to the Texas/New Mexico border at the beginning of the period. Before turning north and heading up the east coast, it will go east off the coast of South Carolina. As it advances up the coast, it will also get stronger. It will return cold air and extra moisture to Kentucky. A majority of Kentucky could see 6–12 inches. I will fine-tune this as we approach the period. These two maps, one from the GFS and the other from the Canadian, show this.

 

 

 

By Tuesday night, we might experience single digit temps. There will be wind chills much below zero.

 

 

 

Neither of the apps that I use are showing much in the way of snow at all for the second system.