North Oldham vs. Woodford County Predictions/Updates (8th Region Semi-finals)

[ColonelMike]

who:   #3 North Oldham Mustangs vs. Woodford County Yellowjackets

What:   8th Region Semi-finals

Where / when:  Henry County HS, New Castle, KY    Monday 3/6/23   Tipoff 6:30 pm

Broadcast:   The "Voice of the 8th Region Tournament" - Pegasus Sports - FREE, live hi-def video coverage begins with a pregame show at 6 pm on www.pegasussportsky.com

These two haven't met since North routed Woodford in last year's region tournament finale.

North returns all five starters from last year's region titleists, and their top 2 reserves, including 8th Region POY runner-up Dallas Roberts, a 5-year starter at PG who is now the Mustangs' all-time leading scorer.  6'8" senior center Luke Anderson and 6'7" senior forward Ian Higdon form a potent one-two punch inside; both made the All-Region team.    On the outside, Jack Fischer, Jack Scales, Grant Neal, and Ryan Howard combine with Roberts to form a very formidable corps of perimeter shooters; rare is the day all five are mis-firing from deep.

North is 7-2 against ranked teams this year, with their only two losses coming to #1 Warren Central (by 14) and #2 LexCath (by 8).   The Mustangs are by far the hottest team in the region, having won 14 straight - North hasn't lost in 2023 - and 18 of their last 19.

Woodford is maybe the most athletic team in the region.   Preseason voted into the Bluegrasspreps Top 20, the Yellowjackets fell out of the rankings after suffering several injuries and taking on some losses.   But the Jackets are healthy now, and the return of 6'10" John McRear provides a defensive insurance policy on the back of Woodford's defense that has made them immensely more dangerous.    6'4" guard Jasper Johnson is just a sophomore, but some services rank him among the top 15 sophomores in the nation.   He leads the team in scoring at 21 ppg.

Three other Woodford players are Division 1 material, either in basketball or football.   

Woodford likes to play around the rim, and not surprisingly, they are one of the best shooting teams in the region at 53% as a result.

thoughts?

FREE, live hi-def video coverage starts at 6 pm ET on www.pegasussportsky.com     The game can be seen afterwards as an archive on the website.

[4 Quarters]

I just don't think Woodford can shoot the basketball well enough to win this game  I see North with a 9 point win.

[Mojocat]

North by 16

[Adrian Woj Burner]

This game should come down to Woodford's motivation on defense. If it is the same team for the first 3 quarters against Owen County I like North Oldham by double digits. If it is the 4th quarter WC team then I am really not sure...

[bigapplekid]

North by 15+. 
 

I was not impressed by WC in the game against Owen. They should’ve beaten them by 20 but didn’t largely because they struggled against a triangle and 2 and Moore contesting shots for three quarters. WC relies on getting to the rim, and North is bigger than Owen, so I’m guessing WC will struggle even more at putting points on the board. 

[ColonelMike]

The pre-season favorites in the 8th Region have done very well over the last several years...North appears poised to continue that trend, but Woodford is scary talented.

I certainly don't foresee anything like last year's rout in the finals, but I like the qualities possessed by Levitch's team:   Size, mobility (including the size!), several potent outside shooters, good ballhandlers, strong defense, depth that produces (and doesn't just take up space on the floor).

Plus, North just never seems to get flustered.

If the Mustangs keep their cool and control the tempo to their liking, I like the Mustangs' chances.   But I do believe Woodford will make them earn it.    At the end of the day, you just can't easily dismiss such an insanely talented group of young men.  

Both teams probably need better performances than their first round game performances, but both faced formidable opposition in those games and found a way to win, anyway.

[LLS10]

I see North winning, and it could turn into a blowout if WF does not show up. Which seems to often happen.....

[TribeTime]

I see North winning but I think Woodford will keep it close.

[Colonel-Rebel Fan]

Mustangs by 10.

[ColonelMike]

Fouls - or the lack thereof - may play a big role in this one.   

Hopefully, we don't see the "sudden change" in officiating philosophy we saw in the girls' final.   After swallowing their whistles in the first 6 games of the girls' 8th Region, the referees sent Grant County (24 FT attempts) and Simon Kenton (35 FTA) to the line a combined 59 times on Sunday.   

It's always a little bit of a challenge to the teams to get accustomed to the referees from another region (this year, the 8th Region tourneys are being called by referees from the 13th region), but I think the ladies from Grant and SK were shocked on Sunday at how the title game was called so much tighter than the first two rounds.

North has very mobile bigs, and they are comfortable letting them (particularly Higdon) guard on the perimeter.   Woodford with several players with extraordinary quickness - obviously, they'd love to get the North bigs in foul trouble.

On the flip side, North has some excellent free throw shooters - but Higdon and Anderson haven't always been so productive at the stripe.  The North bigs need to have at least a decent night at the line.

On the Woodford side of things, there are very few flaws in Jasper Johnson's game - but every time I've seen him play, he's gotten into foul trouble or even fouled out.   The Jackets need him in the game tonight; he's one of those true difference makers.   I think North could more easily survive with one of their two twin towers out than Woodford could without Johnson.   He can do it all for Woodford.

[Mojocat]

I think the development of Fisher and Neal has been crucial.  North already had 4 solid, reliable players (counting Scales), but now that either Jack or Grant can be counted on in big moments, well, it just makes North that much tougher.   There are no guarantees in a lose-and-go-home scenario, but they are in a good spot.

[ConverseAllStar]

My sense is that out-of-region referees have a slight tendency to favor the underdog.  Last year North Oldham was not the favorite going in to the 8th region tournament; this year they are.  They'll need to play a clean game to beat Woodford County.

[NEERFAN]

What region are the refs from?

[Colonel-Rebel Fan]

5 minutes ago, NEERFAN said:

What region are the refs from?

13th.

[4 Quarters]

3 minutes ago, ConverseAllStar said:

My sense is that out-of-region referees have a slight tendency to favor the underdog.  Last year North Oldham was not the favorite going in to the 8th region tournament; this year they are.  They'll need to play a clean game to beat Woodford County.

I personally would like to see the out-of-region referees discontinued.  I have been to the 8th, 9th, and 11th region games this year and I can't really say anything good about the officials.  I watched the 11th semifinals Saturday, they had the 9th region officials.  They were actually 6 of the better officials from the 9th, neither game imo were greatly called games.  I honestly don't feel the favor either team, but they call the game differently than they do all year long.