3/2, 6:30pm

Henry County High School
This is a tale of old teams. 2 teams that seem to always be in contention for the region and 2 of the biggest schools in the region as well. However, their actual success in the regional tournament is extremely different. We havetalked about it many times, so I won’t go in depth, but Oldham County is the most successful basketball program in the region, and Simon Kenton while being the biggest school in the region, seems to come up short year after year, and are yet to ever win the 8th Region Tournament.

These teams have met 20 times, with Oldham County winning 13 of them. Oldham County had also won 8-straight contests against Simon Kenton. That streak came to an end this year with Simon Kenton defeating them 62-50 in Buckner.

Simon Kenton is led by senior guard Travis Krohman. On the year he is averaging 15.7 ppg and shooting 42.2% from 3 and 78.6% from the line.

The Colonels are led by one of the best players in the region, Max Green. The junior guard hastaken his game to another level this season, averaging 23.6 ppg, shooting 38.5% from 3 and #1 in the state in free throw %, coming in at 91.1%.

The big question mark of this game will be the health of Colonel forward Luke Amburgey. He injured his ankle in the district semifinals. If he is 100%, I like the Colonels to pull off the upset, but if he is not then I will take Simon Kenton.Either way, I am expecting a tight contest.

Any takers?

1 minute ago, 4 Quarters said:

Any takers?

Tough one for me.. I think it all comes down to the healthiness of Amburgey. My heart tells me OC but my brain tells me SK. Not sure which one to trust. 

I saw the first Oldham/Simon Kenton game, at Oldham County.  Pretty close game, as I recall, with Simon Kenton pulling away at the end to make the score slightly deceptive.  So, based on that, I won't really be surprised with an OC or SK win.  I think a large margin of victory on either side would be the only surprising thing.  Since Amburgey has the bad wheel, and SK won the first time, and one side has a 7'3 kid and the other does not.....I'll take Simon Kenton by 7.

Krohman for SK is a Junior.  

Okay, the ice has been broken.  Give me SK by 12.

I have seen both play 5-6 games this year.  I like SK by8-10. If Green goes off for OC might keep it close.  Dynes for SK takes away all inside and let's SK guards pressure out on 3 point line. 

Like most every one else, I could see either team winning.  I only see one way SK wins, a low scoring, slow game. I could also see OC winning that way- but less likely. 60s and above, OC is very likely to win. Wish I had a better read on Amburgey health. Since I don’t I am passing on a pick except to reiterate the above: game in 40s-55 SK wins. Game in 60s OC wins. 

SK wins by 13. 

Colonels  by 1.

If Amburgey is limited, Oldham probably has to get something of offensive significance from either Roush or Marcum.   Roush is a slasher; his offensive game might not be well-suited to this matchup with the 7'2" Dynes guarding the back door for SK.

Marcum is an interesting question mark.   The 6'6" sophomore played very passively this year, offensively, but erupted from his shell in the district SF win over South Oldham, grabbing half of Oldham's rebounds and scoring a modest, but very effective, 8 points.    Even at 6'6", he's significantly shorter than Dynes - but bulkier.   If he can show the aggressiveness he found inside himself against South, the inside battle gets a lot more interesting.   In the previous meeting against SK, Marcum had just one rebound.   For Oldham to win, he has to dramatically improve on that tonight.

I look for the SK guards to try to get very physical with Green the minute he comes across the timeline.   If Green keeps his composure and let's the game come to him, he could have a big night.   He's arguably the most extraordinary shooter from distance in the region - and Green's "distance" is a lot farther out than other elite three-point shooters.    If not - well, Oldham probably can't afford to have him with just 9 points after three quarters, which was what North Oldham held him to in the district finals.   (though Green finished with over 30 points after exploding in the fourth quarter, at one time hitting 6 threes in a row) 

Krohman really wasn't a huge factor in the first matchup.   He scored 17 points, but had a rough night shooting.   He was about the only Pioneer to shot poorly, though; the Pioneers, as a team, hit nearly 54% from the floor, over 45% from beyond the arc ( 10 made threes) and SK was a perfect 10 for 10 at the line.  Isaac Gabbard hit six threes for a team-high 18 points.    Dynes got a double-double with 12/12.   Oldham did a fairly nice job of hassling Krohman into a subpar shooting night (5 of 16); if Krohman had managed a "normal" day at the office, SK likely wins the game more handily.

SK won the battle of the boards handily, 31-18.

Oldham shot well beyond the arc (9 of 20, 45%), but overall hit just 40% of their shots in the regular season matchup.   6'4" junior Abram Stinebruner hit 5 of 9 threes and led OC with 19 points; Green was held to just 14, one of only a couple of games this year when he was held under 20 points.   Other than Stinebruner - who hit 6 of 10 shots overall - the rest of the team was just 12 of 35 shooting, with nobody over 50% from the floor.      

Hard to understate the importance of Luke Amburgey's health on the outcome of this game.   If Green is Oldham's lightning, Amburgey is its thunder.    He is one of the grittiest, hardest-working players in Region 8.   His motor is constantly running at high speed, and he is remarkably athletic and rugged.   This guy just doesn't take plays off.   Really, really hard to replace a guy like that.

Like SK, Oldham hit all of their free throws in the previous game, but the Colonels only attempted 5.   The fifth-best free throw shooting team in the state - and possessing the state's top free throw shooter at 91% (Green) - OC needs to find a way to get to the line.   The team is full of extraordinary free throw shooters.

Trent Steiner has SK trending in the right direction; the Pioneers have won 4 of their last 5 games, including 2 against Top 20 teams (Mason County and Grant County).

Free live hi-def video coverage starts with a pregame show at 6 pm on www.pegasussportsky.com

2 minutes ago, ColonelMike said:

 

SK won the battle of the boards handily, 31-18.

 

Good preview, Mike.  The above stat intrigues me.  On one hand, the way OC plays, it's hard to envision them winning a game when they don't win the rebounding battle.  And I wouldn't expect the rebounding margin to necessarily change much this time around, especially if Amburgey is hobbled.  So SK wins!  On the other hand, as you say, Max was held to 14, and that's unusual for him, and I wouldn't expect a repeat of that. If he scores his usual 24, that's another 10 points for OC - and as I said above, it didn't really feel like a 12 point win for SK, it was closer than that (I think) until the end. So OC wins!

3 minutes ago, Mojocat said:

Good preview, Mike.  The above stat intrigues me.  On one hand, the way OC plays, it's hard to envision them winning a game when they don't win the rebounding battle.  And I wouldn't expect the rebounding margin to necessarily change much this time around, especially if Amburgey is hobbled.  So SK wins!  On the other hand, as you say, Max was held to 14, and that's unusual for him, and I wouldn't expect a repeat of that. If he scores his usual 24, that's another 10 points for OC - and as I said above, it didn't really feel like a 12 point win for SK, it was closer than that (I think) until the end. So OC wins!

If this game is as close as I think it should be, the FANS WIN!    ?   

Looking forward to calling this one.   

Light crowd, especially for SK.