5A #1 Covington Catholic at #8 Conner Predictions/Updates

[Voice of Reason]

Should be interesting. Conner being at home is a big help. Don’t know if it’s enough but I certainly don’t see a 28 point blowout that some are calling for. I do know, while difficult, that if Conner’s offense gets into any kind of rhythm it could get interesting.

 

Not sure what happened at halftime of Highlands vs Conner, but Highlands being up 17-0 at halftime makes me think Cov Cath by 4 touchdowns.

[Mr. Sixer]

Not sure what happened at halftime of Highlands vs Conner, but Highlands being up 17-0 at halftime makes me think Cov Cath by 4 touchdowns.

 

I’d like to think that Conner had more to do with their offensive adjustments in that game than HHS doing something wrong. Don’t get me wrong, CCH should and most likely will win this game but unless Conner has a total meltdown on both sides of the ball I don’t see it being a 4 score blowout. Additionally, and I can’t explain it, weird things happen at Conner place lol.

 

Hope it is a good game.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

No rain in Hebron tonight, nothing wet supposed to fall from the sky until Saturday at 7:00 AM.

 

CovCath by 14 or so, I don't think this is a run-away.

 

I'm glad for the lack of rain. This is Cov Cath's first game on grass this season, and only their second or third game on grass in two years.

 

This game is going to come down to the two teams' defenses. "Defense wins games." In particular, tonight is going to be about Cov Cath's defensive secondary and Conner's defensive front line. The Colonels' defense is averaging 138 yards allowed per game, and that's been about 78% passing, 22% rushing. The Cougars' defense allows an average of 218 yards per game, and it's about 55% passing, 45% rushing.

 

That puts Conner's D with an average of 120 yards allowed passing and 98 yards allowed rushing per game. Compare that to Cov Cath's offense, which is averaging 193 yards passing per game and 185 yards rushing per game.

 

Cov Cath's D is averaging 108 yards allowed passing and 30 yards allowed rushing per game. Conner's offense stacks up against that with an average of 227 yards passing per game and 97 yards rushing per game. Cov Cath shuts down the run, but Conner hasn't been able to rely on it much to begin with. I haven't seen any film on Conner, but their stats look like they have 4 guys who are their primary receivers: Colton Roy, Justin Daniels, Caleb Ervin, and Drew Cobble. I would expect to see a LOT of single set back and empty backfield looks out of the Cougars tonight. The Colonels are going to make it their job to get Lawrie, Martin, and Allen in Jared Hicks' face all night.

 

Cov Cath is the #1 defense in NKY for yards allowed, and Conner is tied with Scott as the #3 defense. Newport is #2 with 180 yards allowed per game, Beechwood is #5 with 219 yards per game, and New Cath #6 at 224 yards per game.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

That puts Conner's D with an average of 120 yards allowed passing and 98 yards allowed rushing per game. Compare that to Cov Cath's offense, which is averaging 193 yards passing per game and 185 yards rushing per game.

 

Conner did a great job of shutting down Highlands' run and pass both. Highlands was 40% below their average running and 50% below their average passing - but even so, Highlands' offense still had two touchdowns. It will be interesting to see how they do against Cov Cath's offense.

[StraightShooter]

I’ll go with 38-10 CovCath.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Click the logo to listen to the Colonel Athletic Network's broadcast tonight on Mixlr.

 

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Conner kicks off to start.

 

Schneider fields the ball at the 4 yard line and takes it out to the 16 yard line.

 

1st and 10 Colonels.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Handoff. Felix stopped a the line of scrimmage. 2nd and 10

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Jacob to Mayer. Touchdown on the second play from scrimmage.

 

Flag down at the 15 yard line. It's coming back. Holding on the Colonels.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

2nd and 20.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Jacob keeps it on the option and runs for 18 yards. Late flag down at the end of the play.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Jacob keeps it on the option and runs for 18 yards. Late flag down at the end of the play.

 

Radio crew thought it was a late hit. Flag was on Cov Cath instead. Personal foul.

 

3rd and 15 Colonels.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Pass to Reardon. First down Colonels. Ball on the 27 yard line.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Jet sweep to Boydston. Loss of 2. 2nd and 12 on the 25.

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

Pass to Mayer at the Conner 40, breaks a tackle with a stiff arm and scores a touchdown. 75 yard completion.