TAC Posted October 19, 2016 Posted October 19, 2016 I'm in a weekly pick all NFL games using the spread. I'm currently tied for 12th place at 46-46. The leader is 53-39 (57.6% correct). There are 51 players in this league. 38 players are below .500% Worse is 31-61. What's the juice at Vegas 5%? Only 3 guys are above that. Most could reverse their picks and could do better.
Big Slick Posted October 20, 2016 Posted October 20, 2016 Not many better than Vegas, especially playing every game on the card. Most handicappers or veteran betters will tell you to limit your quantity of bets.
rjs4470 Posted October 20, 2016 Posted October 20, 2016 My family (some of my cousins and Uncles) does a big contest picking games straight up without the spread. Over the 5 years the best I've done is 72%. This year I'm at 60%. Vegas is really tough to beat.
NEERFAN Posted October 20, 2016 Posted October 20, 2016 You need to hit 52.4% of your bets to break even. If I could just learn to bet the opposite of what I feel I would have some spending cash.
Big Slick Posted October 20, 2016 Posted October 20, 2016 Books make their money on people that chase their losses and try to double their wins.
TAC Posted October 20, 2016 Author Posted October 20, 2016 You need to hit 52.4% of your bets to break even. If I could just learn to bet the opposite of what I feel I would have some spending cash. Thought the % to beat was 5%?
UKMustangFan Posted October 20, 2016 Posted October 20, 2016 Let's see how it goes.... Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-10) - Cleveland Chicago @ Green Bay (-7.5) - Green Bay New England @ Pittsburgh (+7.5) - Pittsburgh New York Giants @ LA Rams (+3) - Rams New Orleans @ Kansas City (-6.5) - Chiefs Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-2.5) - Colts Minnesota @ Philadelphia (+2.5) - Minnesota Washington @ Detroit (-1.5) - Washington Oakland @ Jacksonville (-1) - Jacksonville Buffalo @ Miami (+3) - Miami Baltimore @ New York Jets (Even) - Jets Tampa Bay @ San Francisco (+2) - 49ers San Diego @ Atlanta (-6.5) - Atlanta Seattle @ Arizona (-1.5) - Arizona Houston @ Denver (-7.5) - Denver
FatNate Posted October 20, 2016 Posted October 20, 2016 I was lucky my parents paid for my college education. Even luckier, because every extra cent I could come up with went to the local guy. How good am I against Vegas? Bad. Real bad.
PurplePride92 Posted October 20, 2016 Posted October 20, 2016 Horrible. And that is why I play FanDuel.
PurplePride92 Posted October 20, 2016 Posted October 20, 2016 Let's see how it goes.... Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-10) - Cleveland Chicago @ Green Bay (-7.5) - Green Bay New England @ Pittsburgh (+7.5) - Pittsburgh New York Giants @ LA Rams (+3) - Rams New Orleans @ Kansas City (-6.5) - Chiefs Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-2.5) - Colts Minnesota @ Philadelphia (+2.5) - Minnesota Washington @ Detroit (-1.5) - Washington Oakland @ Jacksonville (-1) - Jacksonville Buffalo @ Miami (+3) - Miami Baltimore @ New York Jets (Even) - Jets Tampa Bay @ San Francisco (+2) - 49ers San Diego @ Atlanta (-6.5) - Atlanta Seattle @ Arizona (-1.5) - Arizona Houston @ Denver (-7.5) - Denver I'm curious. Plus this is like gambling for free. No risk. No reward. Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-10) - Cincinnati Chicago @ Green Bay (-7.5) - Chicago New England @ Pittsburgh (+7.5) - New England New York Giants @ LA Rams (+3) - Los Angeles New Orleans @ Kansas City (-6.5) - New Orleans Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-2.5) - Tennessee Minnesota @ Philadelphia (+2.5) - Minnesota Washington @ Detroit (-1.5) - Washington Oakland @ Jacksonville (-1) - Jacksonville Buffalo @ Miami (+3) - Miami Baltimore @ New York Jets (Even) - Baltimore Tampa Bay @ San Francisco (+2) - San Francisco San Diego @ Atlanta (-6.5) - Atlanta Seattle @ Arizona (-1.5) - Arizona Houston @ Denver (-7.5) - Denver
LCDAWGS19 Posted October 20, 2016 Posted October 20, 2016 Let's see how it goes.... Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-10) - Cleveland Chicago @ Green Bay (-7.5) - Green Bay New England @ Pittsburgh (+7.5) - Pittsburgh New York Giants @ LA Rams (+3) - Rams New Orleans @ Kansas City (-6.5) - Chiefs Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-2.5) - Colts Minnesota @ Philadelphia (+2.5) - Minnesota Washington @ Detroit (-1.5) - Washington Oakland @ Jacksonville (-1) - Jacksonville Buffalo @ Miami (+3) - Miami Baltimore @ New York Jets (Even) - Jets Tampa Bay @ San Francisco (+2) - 49ers San Diego @ Atlanta (-6.5) - Atlanta Seattle @ Arizona (-1.5) - Arizona Houston @ Denver (-7.5) - Denver I'm game. Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-10) - Cleveland Chicago @ Green Bay (-7.5) - Green Bay New England @ Pittsburgh (+7.5) - New England New York Giants @ LA Rams (+3) - Rams New Orleans @ Kansas City (-6.5) - Chiefs Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-2.5) - Colts Minnesota @ Philadelphia (+2.5) - Minnesota Washington @ Detroit (-1.5) - Washington Oakland @ Jacksonville (-1) - Oakland Buffalo @ Miami (+3) - Buffalo Baltimore @ New York Jets (Even) - Ravens Tampa Bay @ San Francisco (+2) - 49ers San Diego @ Atlanta (-6.5) - Atlanta Seattle @ Arizona (-1.5) - Arizona Houston @ Denver (-7.5) - Denver
LCDAWGS19 Posted October 20, 2016 Posted October 20, 2016 I was lucky my parents paid for my college education. Even luckier, because every extra cent I could come up with went to the local guy. How good am I against Vegas? Bad. Real bad. I did well for a while...REALLY well. Then I put a ton on what I thought was a sure thing and got burned.
rjs4470 Posted October 20, 2016 Posted October 20, 2016 I did well for a while...REALLY well. Then I put a ton on what I thought was a sure thing and got burned. My story exactly. Going to college outside of Philly meant I knew a lot of guys who "had a guy". So me and a friend split the betting...we'd each put in half and split the winnings. We did really well for about 5 weeks...and I mean really well. Then we had a few bad weeks, and doubled down on the Lions at home vs Tampa. The Lions were unbeatable at home and very good (This was during the early 90's) Tampa was terrible on the road and a bad team. The "we can't lose bet" ended up losing, and we immediately got out of the NFL gambling game a few hundred down. I haven't bet football or any sports since (aside from my DFS addiction and a couple trips to Vegas during March Madness).
TAC Posted October 20, 2016 Author Posted October 20, 2016 Those 'guys' are still around if you need a fix. Lol
rjs4470 Posted October 20, 2016 Posted October 20, 2016 I'll play along Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-10) - Cincinnati Chicago @ Green Bay (-7.5) - Chicago New England @ Pittsburgh (+7.5) - New England New York Giants @ LA Rams (+3) - Giants New Orleans @ Kansas City (-6.5) - KC Indianapolis @ Tennessee (-2.5) - Indy Minnesota @ Philadelphia (+2.5) - Philly Washington @ Detroit (-1.5) - Washington Oakland @ Jacksonville (-1) - Jacksonville Buffalo @ Miami (+3) - Buffalo Baltimore @ New York Jets (Even) - Baltimore Tampa Bay @ San Francisco (+2) - Tampa San Diego @ Atlanta (-6.5) - San Diego Seattle @ Arizona (-1.5) - Arizona Houston @ Denver (-7.5) - Denver
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