Why Do Teams Ever Punt?

[KingOfClutch33]

I am kind of in between on this. I think if you are pinned deep in your own territory you have to punt. I also think that a team with a strong defense and a not so strong offense that punting can be a key factor for them.

 

Here is my reasoning: In high school football, it is very difficult to drive the length of the field and score a TD, to many mistakes, penalties, etc. If I have a strong D, I would rather have the offense start on the 10, instead of going for it on 4th down with an average offense and giving them the ball on the 50. One of the most rare things in high school football is to watch a team march 90 yards on a 10-12 play, 6 minute drive.

 

It does make sense though not to punt. I do understand the logic, especially if you can use "trick" plays like this guy does sometimes.

[StateChamp97]

I don't understand how he glosses over the 20% difference in scoring probability when pinned back and going for it? If your defense is good, I think that probability actually becomes greater. If you have a kicker, why would you not aim for a touchback, rather than giving the ball to them at the 45? Coach Kelley said that their average kickoff return was brought out to the 33. Why not work on kickoff coverage? We can all point to different successes this strategy has achieved, but I hardly think it should become the norm. Guys like nick saben, bill belichick, and even chip Kelly don't coach games like this for a reason.

[rjs4470]

I don't understand how he glosses over the 20% difference in scoring probability when pinned back and going for it? If your defense is good, I think that probability actually becomes greater. If you have a kicker, why would you not aim for a touchback, rather than giving the ball to them at the 45? Coach Kelley said that their average kickoff return was brought out to the 33. Why not work on kickoff coverage? We can all point to different successes this strategy has achieved, but I hardly think it should become the norm. Guys like nick saben, bill belichick, and even chip Kelly don't coach games like this for a reason.

 

Because statistically, getting better at kickoff coverage doesn't help you. If you can recover an onside kick or two (or more) a game, the extra possessions greatly offset the extra yardage you may gain defensively by having better kick coverage. In essence, they've decided to work on something (onside kicks) that prove to be more beneficial than the normal strategy (kicking off).

 

Also, I don't think he glosses over the extra 20% you mention. When you think about it, 20% means 1 extra touchdown every 5 possessions. If you are getting more scoring opportunities in the process, then it's a fair trade.

 

I don't know that this strategy works for everyone. You have to have a good, solid team for this to be viable. I don't think this helps bad teams win or stay in games. But I can see where it can help teams that are very good.

[Jumper_Dad]

Does anyone punt on Madden? I don't...

[TheDeuce]

It does make sense though not to punt. I do understand the logic, especially if you can use "trick" plays like this guy does sometimes.

 

Agreed. I understand the logic, but it is gimmicky and would not work (or even be beneficial) for all teams.

[thehotsnakes]

I've always said this guy is brilliant. I'm not going to say this would work for everyone without a doubt, but I do think it would work for more teams than someone would want to admit.

 

I fully think giving up the extra yardage for a few extra offensive drives per game is a very easy trade off. If people stopped thinking about it being an onside kick, and more about just blind probability, I think it would get a better review. I mean, if someone asked a coach "Hey coach, I'm going to roll these dice, and if it comes up as one of these numbers, your opponent starts at the 45. If its the other numbers, you get a free possession. If you don't roll the dice, they get the ball wherever they can return it to and you most likely won't get it back." I'll take that chance every time.

 

If you're bad on defense, why not take the chance? They're going to probably score on you anyway. If they're bad on offense, does it really matter where they get the ball?

 

And I don't think anybody has said anything about the sheer boost in excitement that a team gets by recovering an onside kick. If you want to demoralize a team, recover an onside kick.

[StateChamp97]

I've always said this guy is brilliant. I'm not going to say this would work for everyone without a doubt, but I do think it would work for more teams than someone would want to admit.

 

I fully think giving up the extra yardage for a few extra offensive drives per game is a very easy trade off. If people stopped thinking about it being an onside kick, and more about just blind probability, I think it would get a better review. I mean, if someone asked a coach "Hey coach, I'm going to roll these dice, and if it comes up as one of these numbers, your opponent starts at the 45. If its the other numbers, you get a free possession. If you don't roll the dice, they get the ball wherever they can return it to and you most likely won't get it back." I'll take that chance every time.

 

If you're bad on defense, why not take the chance? They're going to probably score on you anyway. If they're bad on offense, does it really matter where they get the ball?

 

And I don't think anybody has said anything about the sheer boost in excitement that a team gets by recovering an onside kick. If you want to demoralize a team, recover an onside kick.

 

Except, what about when you don't recover a single onside kick...and their offense scores every time while starting at mid field...what happens to morale then?

I'm just saying, the best football minds are not employing this strategy for a reason.

[kypride]

Irrelevant comment. Imagine 1916= "This whole passing the football thing with people lining up outside the box, I'm just saying, the best football minds are not employing this strategy for a reason."

[MentschTrachtGottLacht]

....

 

Paul Daugherty wrote a great article on this, chockful of a ton of stats to back it up, about 5 years ago. Was really well done.

 

Paul Daugherty: Why banning punting isn't a crazy idea - More Sports - SI.com

[thehotsnakes]

Except, what about when you don't recover a single onside kick...and their offense scores every time while starting at mid field...what happens to morale then?

I'm just saying, the best football minds are not employing this strategy for a reason.

 

I'm unsure what constitutes a good football mind, but the guy has 4 state championships.

 

And I'll stick with taking that chance every week, without a doubt.

[kypride]

1987= "You mean the Bengals aren't getting in a huddle? They are just going to the line every time and snapping the ball? I'm just saying, the best football minds are not employing this strategy for a reason."

[StateChamp97]

Irrelevant comment. Imagine 1916= "This whole passing the football thing with people lining up outside the box, I'm just saying, the best football minds are not employing this strategy for a reason."

Yeah obviously the same...but not really. If you think guys like Saben, Meyer, belichick, punt because they are opposed to change and evolution of the game, I completely disagree. Do you really think that they do not completely analyze and ststistics and probabilities to help them win a football game? They are just guys who are unwavering in their belief that "this is how football is played and by golly we will keep it that way?" They aren't "forward enough" thinkers?

 

Alignment and drawing up plays is one thing, gambling on possession and field position is another.

[rjs4470]

Except, what about when you don't recover a single onside kick...and their offense scores every time while starting at mid field...what happens to morale then?

I'm just saying, the best football minds are not employing this strategy for a reason.

 

Innovation doesn't always come from a well know source. As far as onside kicks, obviously this team works on it. A lot. They've got multiple onside kick plays tha they employ. Even at 33% they get at least one extra possession a game. Coupled with not punting, they end up with a significant advantage in time of possession, and more scoring opps. Again, I don't think this helps a bad team. But I can see where it can give an already good team an advantage. I do think as the skill and talent levels increase in College and the NFL, this strategy is less likely to be as effective, especially with their more effective kicking games.

[kypride]

Yeah obviously the same...but not really. If you think guys like Saben, Meyer, belichick, punt because they are opposed to change and evolution of the game, I completely disagree. Do you really think that they do not completely analyze and ststistics and probabilities to help them win a football game? They are just guys who are unwavering in their belief that "this is how football is played and by golly we will keep it that way?" They aren't "forward enough" thinkers?

 

Alignment and drawing up plays is one thing, gambling on possession and field position is another.

 

You stuck your foot in your mouth on this one because Belichick studies analytics and goes for it more that typical coaches, and one year when it backfired against the Colts got villified for it. People punt because thats whats always been done, fans understand you when you punt, the media understands you when you punt. Its hard to defend change. Its exactly the same as my examples.

[StateChamp97]

You stuck your foot in your mouth on this one because Belichick studies analytics and goes for it more that typical coaches, and one year when it backfired against the Colts got villified for it. People punt because thats whats always been done, fans understand you when you punt, the media understands you when you punt. Its hard to defend change. Its exactly the same as my examples.

 

Does belichick line up and kick an onside kick EVERY kickoff? Do the Patriots still have a punter on the roster? Obviously there are scenarios where this makes sense. There are also teams that can/will effectively run this type of scheme. I view it as the wildcat offense. It's not the wave of the future. It's a component...until the kicking game is outlawed to prevent injury.

Edit: I'm pretty sure all good coaches study analytics to the best of their ability.