Voted no. I have no other reason to believe such apart from the basic law of large numbers and a mathematical construct designed to estimate the number of active civilizations in the galaxy at any given time, the Drake equation. The crux of my doubts lie in Fermi's Paradox: there is an apparent contradiction between the high probability estimates for the existence of other civilizations in the universe and humanity's complete lack of contact with -- and evidence for -- those civilizations.

 

Does the math check out? Sort of. I'm definitely willing to admit that the probabilities are very high... but I need more than an equation of probabilities to make me assured of a scientific likelihood.

 

Do I believe that they're out there? Not right now.

 

Do I hope there are? Well, as Carl Sagan wrote: "If it's just us, it seems like an awful waste of space."

 

You sound like a maybe that voted no. That is cool, I am sure we had some maybes vote yes.

 

I don't put much stock in Drake but on Fermi our own planet contradicts his theory, correct? In plain language, we are here and we don't have near the technology to even think about interstellar travel much less contact another civilization.

 

Furthermore on Drake, he speculated about the just the Milky Way, not the entire Universe? That would be like making a prediction about Earth based on one child (if that) instead of considering the entirety of life on planet Earth and making a the same prediction.

 

And frankly, there is a lot of evidence to the contrary claiming that we have had contact with alien civilizations. I know some of you think I am crazy but if you really look at the information available take a look at all the people (with some pretty stunning and professional credentials) that claim to have knowledge about aliens and/or knowledge of government cover ups of aliens. Many of these people are former military officers and government officials.

You sound like a maybe that voted no. That is cool, I am sure we had some maybes vote yes.

 

I don't put much stock in Drake but on Fermi our own planet contradicts his theory, correct? In plain language, we are here and we don't have near the technology to even think about interstellar travel much less contact another civilization.

 

Furthermore on Drake, he speculated about the just the Milky Way, not the entire Universe? That would be like making a prediction about Earth based on one child (if that) instead of considering the entirety of life on planet Earth and making a the same prediction.

 

And frankly, there is a lot of evidence to the contrary claiming that we have had contact with alien civilizations. I know some of you think I am crazy but if you really look at the information available take a look at all the people (with some pretty stunning and professional credentials) that claim to have knowledge about aliens and/or knowledge of government cover ups of aliens. Many of these people are former military officers and government officials.

 

I don't think you're crazy, but I do think the reliability of your sources is highly questionable. Some people think they've seen aliens. Some people think they've seen the Virgin Mary in a bowl of Cheerios. I'm not really convinced of either.

 

You're correct in saying that my response is "maybe". Using our own civilization as a guide and knowing as we do that our solar system is relatively young on the universal scale, shouldn't our development in a relatively short amount of time suggest that older civilizations exist and that at least a few of them should be comparatively advanced given the great time span? Even travelling at present speeds, you could pepper the entire galaxy with Earthlings in the matter of a few million years. How is it possible that these likely and more advanced civilizations have not spread across the galaxy, leaving traces for us to find?

 

The whole thing is a difficult proposition given just how immense the universe is and how little of it we can really see. As I said above, I accept that the probability makes it more likely than not, but I'm not going to compel myself to accept a proposition is true based on probabilities.

I don't think you're crazy, but I do think the reliability of your sources is highly questionable. Some people think they've seen aliens. Some people think they've seen the Virgin Mary in a bowl of Cheerios. I'm not really convinced of either.

 

You're correct in saying that my response is "maybe". Using our own civilization as a guide and knowing as we do that our solar system is relatively young on the universal scale, shouldn't our development in a relatively short amount of time suggest that older civilizations exist and that at least a few of them should be comparatively advanced given the great time span? Even travelling at present speeds, you could pepper the entire galaxy with Earthlings in the matter of a few million years. How is it possible that these likely and more advanced civilizations have not spread across the galaxy, leaving traces for us to find?

 

The whole thing is a difficult proposition given just how immense the universe is and how little of it we can really see. As I said above, I accept that the probability makes it more likely than not, but I'm not going to compel myself to accept a proposition is true based on probabilities.

 

We are almost on exactly the same page.

 

Two points on traces for us to find, hopefully there is some type of universal governing body that doesn't permit interference with alien civilizations.

 

Also, several of the former military personal swear up and down we do have traces and the government is hiding it. To further add here, the government almost always goes with the "weather balloon explanation." Watch the reaction of the witnesses/experts when faced with that explanation. In short, you always get a there is no way (on what they say being a weather balloon) blah blah blah.

I don't think you're crazy, but I do think the reliability of your sources is highly questionable. Some people think they've seen aliens. Some people think they've seen the Virgin Mary in a bowl of Cheerios. I'm not really convinced of either.

 

You're correct in saying that my response is "maybe". Using our own civilization as a guide and knowing as we do that our solar system is relatively young on the universal scale, shouldn't our development in a relatively short amount of time suggest that older civilizations exist and that at least a few of them should be comparatively advanced given the great time span? Even travelling at present speeds, you could pepper the entire galaxy with Earthlings in the matter of a few million years. How is it possible that these likely and more advanced civilizations have not spread across the galaxy, leaving traces for us to find?

 

The whole thing is a difficult proposition given just how immense the universe is and how little of it we can really see. As I said above, I accept that the probability makes it more likely than not, but I'm not going to compel myself to accept a proposition is true based on probabilities.

 

 

 

People WANT to see the Virgin Mary in their Cheerios; people WANT to believe an alien contact left them with superhuman powers; people WANT to believe there is a being in the sky who loves them and wants to spend eternity with them. In short, people believe in irrational craziness because they WANT to believe them.

You sound like a maybe that voted no. That is cool, I am sure we had some maybes vote yes.

 

I don't put much stock in Drake but on Fermi our own planet contradicts his theory, correct? In plain language, we are here and we don't have near the technology to even think about interstellar travel much less contact another civilization.

 

Furthermore on Drake, he speculated about the just the Milky Way, not the entire Universe? That would be like making a prediction about Earth based on one child (if that) instead of considering the entirety of life on planet Earth and making a the same prediction.

 

And frankly, there is a lot of evidence to the contrary claiming that we have had contact with alien civilizations. I know some of you think I am crazy but if you really look at the information available take a look at all the people (with some pretty stunning and professional credentials) that claim to have knowledge about aliens and/or knowledge of government cover ups of aliens. Many of these people are former military officers and government officials.

 

Besides the estimate being within the galaxy, why do you not like the Drake equation?

WANT[/b] to believe there is a being in the sky who loves them and wants to spend eternity with them. In short' date=' people believe in irrational craziness because they WANT to believe them.[/quote']

So, people who believe in God are, in your words "irrational" and crazy?

Besides the estimate being within the galaxy, why do you not like the Drake equation?

 

In theory I think it is a good starting point but we have enough unknowns without adding an equation with multiple unknowns.

 

Why the Drake Equation Is Useless | RealClearScience

People WANT to see the Virgin Mary in their Cheerios; people WANT to believe an alien contact left them with superhuman powers; people WANT to believe there is a being in the sky who loves them and wants to spend eternity with them. In short, people believe in irrational craziness because they WANT to believe them.

 

So, people who believe in God are, in your words "irrational" and crazy?

 

Please take this to another thread/forum.