Now that the regular season has concluded, let’s take a look at each first round match up for all of the Northern Kentucky teams and what my expectations are for each district.

 

We start in 1A.

 

The Beechwood Tigers finished with a 6-4 record but steamrolled 1A competition, shutting out both Dayton and Ludlow 56-0 and beating Bellevue by a score of 56-22. The Tigers should be expected to make another deep post season run. Here are the match ups:

 

Bracken County (2-8) at Beechwood (6-4)

Expect a running clock in this one. The Tigers shouldn’t be tested until the semi finals when they would likely meet the one team that has had their number recently: Mayfield.

 

Eminence (6-4) at Bellevue (6-4)

Bellevue has played the tougher schedule and should be favored to advance to the second round. While this should be a decent game to start, Bellevue’s offense is simply too powerful for the Warriors to contend with.

 

Dayton (2-8) at Frankfort (8-2)

Frankfort is an offensive juggernaut that frankly probably won’t be stopped until a region final match up with Beechwood. Running clock here.

 

Ludlow (4-6) at Paris (8-2)

Paris is favored to win here but this is definetly a winnable game for the Panthers if they come to play. I like Paris to advance.

 

Region Final Prediction:

Frankfort v Beechwood

 

Winner:

Beechwood

 

2A:

Another year, another Newport Central Catholic district championship. The Breds once again finished undefeated in the district and are primed and ready for another deep post season run after a slow start to begin the season. Let’s take a look at the match ups:

 

Owen County (2-8) at Newport Catholic (6-4) (Saturday 1:00)

Owen County’s defense has given up an average of 36 ppg. The Rebels gave up 51 to Walton Verona and 61 to Bellevue. I think it’s safe to assume we will see a running clock Saturday afternoon.

 

Carroll County (5-5) at Newport (5-5)

The Panthers started the season off 2-5 but much like Newport, hit their stride late in the season with 3 consecutive wins to close out the regular season. Newport will have the better athletes and quarterback Charlie Mullins has really hit his stride lately and come around with changes coming to the offense that better suited his abilities. Look for Newport to win by around 2 touchdowns.

 

Lloyd Memorial (6-4) at Walton Verona (8-2)

This should end up being the best game in NKY this Friday night for the 2A district. Walton is 8-2 but haven’t played as tough a schedule as the Juggs have. Still the Lattimore brothers are extremely tough and Walton comes in having won 5 of their last 6. Confidence is huge when you get to the playoffs. Expect a low scoring game, as neither team gives up an average of 18 ppg. Lloyd should be the favorite to advance.

 

Holy Cross (1-9) at Gallatin County (8-2)

Holy Cross has struggled this season but still has a chance at upsetting the #1 seed Wildcats. Jalen Beal has had a great season and anytime you have a running back of his caliber, you simply can’t count out the Indians. Quarterback Hamilton Scott is the key. If he can pass the ball well enough to key Gallatin from stacking the box on Beal, the Indians just might advance to the second round. Expect a close one.

 

Region Final Prediction:

Newport v Newport Central Catholic

 

Winner:

Newport Central Catholic

 

4A:

This district has been owned by Highlands. The Bluebirds are going for 7 consecutive state championships and will be tough to beat after resting their starters in the final week to get key players healthy for a deep post season run.

 

Boyd County (1-9) at Highlands (9-1)

This one will likely be over by halftime, regardless of whether Highlands rests starters or not. The Bluebirds are the deepest and most talented team in class 4A and one of the top teams in the state. Long bus ride home back to Eastern Kentucky.

 

Rowan County (3-7) at Covington Catholic (8-2) (Saturday 1:00)

The Colonels may be a 2 seed in this district but would most likely be a 1 seed in most of the other districts around the state. Quarterback Ben Dressman has gotten better with each week and with Luke Bir returning, the Colonels add another weapon to an offense that averages 29.1 ppg. Expect a running clock.

 

Holmes (5-5) at Ashland (7-3)

Ashland comes in having won 6 of their final 7, while Holmes comes in on a 3 game losing streak. The Tomcats should be favored at home, but Holmes will have the best player on the field in senior running back Jon Scruggs. The Bulldogs have shown that they can put up some numbers throughout the season and anytime you have a player the caliber of Scruggs, anything is possible. If the same Ashland team shows up that lost to Newcath, we could be in for a very good game.

 

Region Final Predictions:

Highlands v Covington Catholic

 

Winner:

Highlands

 

5A:

South Oldham defeated all three of the Northern Kentucky district opponents to wrap up the #1 seed. Conner finished the season strong winning 4 of their final 5 and should be expected to make a playoff run after being exposed against Covcath this past week.

 

Montgomery County (6-4) at Conner (7-3)

The Cougars have one of the best quarterbacks in the state in UK commit Drew Barker. The Indians will come in to Hebron at the wrong time, as Conner took a tough L this past week to the Colonels which will give them plenty of motivation to come out and prove their doubters wrong. Still, the key for Conner will be to slow down running back Aaron Botts (988 yards ) and quarterback Chaiten Tomlin (1450 yds, 20 touchdowns). This should be a good game but I’d expect the Cougars to pull out a close one.

 

Scott (7-3) at Franklin County (9-1)

The Eagles come in having lost 3 straight and things down get much easier with a Franklin Co team who is very similar to the Eagles as far as running the ball goes. Franklin County comes in averaging 260 rushing yards per game, led by the duo of Lorenzo McCaskell and Chris Roberts. What makes the Flyers so tough to defend, however, is the balance that they have with a quarterback who has passed for 1632 yards and 20 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions in Barrett Sanderson. Scott’s run game should be able to control the clock as the Flyers give up an average of 145 rushing yards per game. Expect a high scoring game that could go either way.

 

Cooper (3-7) at Anderson County (8-2)

This is a tough match up on the road for the Jags as Anderson County’s only two losses are to two of the best teams in 4A in Boyle County and Collins. For Cooper to win, they must cut down on turnovers and sustain drives without having them halted by penalties. Unfortunately, I think the Jags season comes to an end in week 1 of the playoffs as Anderson County is simply too fundamentally sound on both sides of the ball.

 

Region Final Predictions:

South Oldham v Anderson County

 

Winner:

Anderson County

 

6A:

The Pioneers finished with a perfect 10-0 regular season record, ending Campbell County’s 2 year streak as district champions. The Pioneers have one of the top quarterbacks in the state in Brenan Kuntz and should also be aided by the return of running back Dillon Powell, depending on how deep of a post season run they make. Campbell County finished with the 2 seed in this district, while Dixie Heights and Ryle rounded out the standings with the 3 and 4 seeds, respectively.

 

Southern (4-6) at Simon Kenton (10-0)

The Pioneers come in with one of the more balanced offenses in the area, averaging 194 rushing ypg and 202 passing ypg. Against a Southern team that gives up 27 ppg, expect the offense to have a lot of success. The Independence squad should advance to the second round in convincing fashion.

 

Pleasure Ridge Park (4-6) at Campbell County (7-3)

The Panthers come in having lost 6 of their final 8 games and give up an average of 25 ppg. Against a Campbell County team that likes to use their rushing game to control the clock with both their quarterback and running back, PRP will have their hands full. The key for Coach Lickert’s squad will be to control the athletes that PRP has on offense. Expect Campbell County to advance to the second round.

 

Dixie Heights (7-3) at Seneca (2-8)

Despite going 2-8, Seneca got the #2 seed in this district. Dixie likely gets the #1 seed in this district and should be able to get the win on the road if they run the ball the way they did this past week at Cooper. Seth Caple, Darion Washington, and quarterback Drew Moore will be extremely tough to stop as you can’t key on just one as all three bring a different style of running to the game. Seneca gives up an average of 174 rushing ypg, which definetly won’t help the RedHawks cause. Dixie’s defense will look to stop running back Jamison White, Quarterback Tylan Harbin, and receiver Avery Stepp.

 

Ryle (2-8) at Butler (8-2)

The Raiders will have a tough first round match up against a team that has won 7 of their previous 8. The Bears average 32 ppg, while giving up just 13 ppg. With Ryle’s offense struggling for the majority of their games this year, a tough defense like Butler’s doesn’t help their cause. While the NKY 6A district should be able to win the other 3 games, this is the one that I think keeps the clean sweep from happening.

 

Boone County (0-10) at McCracken County (8-2)

Even though Boone finished winless, they make the playoffs by default due to another district only having 3 teams. McCracken County is one of the better teams in Western KY with their only two losses coming by one point to Paducah Tilghman and Mayfield. McCracken averages 45 ppg, while giving up 19 ppg. The offense is led by running back Jordan Troutman who has rushed for 1,462 yards on 170 carries. The balance by McCracken will be on full display as they also have a quarterback in Zyaire Hughes who has passed for over 2200 yards and 20 touchdowns. Needless to say, it will be a long bus ride for the Rebels.

 

Region Final Prediction:

Simon Kenton/Dixie Heights winner v Campbell County

 

Winner:

Simon Kenton/Dixie Heights winner

Johnson Central will beat CovCath..again in 2nd round and will lose to Highlands in Regional final by 3 scores with the Bluebirds pulling away late.

Here are games I have comments on:

 

1. Beechwood needs to get better or Frankfort will get them.

 

2. Walton Verona is the favorite over Lloyd and I will be surprised if Lloyd wins that one.

 

3. I agree with Asher that Cov Cath will have their hands full against Johnson Central. That game is a toss up.

Johnson Central will beat CovCath..again in 2nd round and will lose to Highlands in Regional final by 3 scores with the Bluebirds pulling away late.

 

I kind of went back and forth on that JC-Covcath game.

 

Nothing against JC but they haven't played a schedule or a game that I can point to and say that yes they are hands down a favorite against Covcath.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if you are right, but I'll go with the "home team" for now.

Here are games I have comments on:

 

1. Beechwood needs to get better or Frankfort will get them.

 

2. Walton Verona is the favorite over Lloyd and I will be surprised if Lloyd wins that one.

 

3. I agree with Asher that Cov Cath will have their hands full against Johnson Central. That game is a toss up.

 

Just wondering, but what makes Walton the favorite in that game?

 

Lloyd likely gets the #1 seed in that district with wins over Gallatin and Owen during the regular season. Don't be fooled by the loss to Newport. They (Newport) are a good team whose defense is playing very well right now. If not for two special teams breakdowns against Holmes, they limit Scruggs to 19 carries for 66 yards and 108 total yards of offense.

 

I like the Juggs against WV in a close one.

I'm taking the Panthers of Ludlow to knock off Paris this week..Go Panthers!

I'm taking the Panthers of Ludlow to knock off Paris this week..Go Panthers!

 

Outside of Frankfort, that district is pretty weak. Ludlow winning would be a mild upset but not out of the question.

I like the 6A prediction. I think the Camels have came along ways since early in the year. I don't know too much about PRP and Butler but believe the ball control offense and the improvements on defense will be enough to get them a rematch with SK/Dixie.

 

Camels match up well with Dixie and that would be a heck of a game.

Just wondering, but what makes Walton the favorite in that game?

 

Lloyd likely gets the #1 seed in that district with wins over Gallatin and Owen during the regular season. Don't be fooled by the loss to Newport. They (Newport) are a good team whose defense is playing very well right now. If not for two special teams breakdowns against Holmes, they limit Scruggs to 19 carries for 66 yards and 108 total yards of offense.

 

I like the Juggs against WV in a close one.

Walton beat Newport 48-13 early in the year so I guess they'd be a 2 seed behind NCC, based on that logic. Once again, you can't compare scores to make predictions. That's why they play the games.

Just wondering, but what makes Walton the favorite in that game?

 

Lloyd likely gets the #1 seed in that district with wins over Gallatin and Owen during the regular season. Don't be fooled by the loss to Newport. They (Newport) are a good team whose defense is playing very well right now. If not for two special teams breakdowns against Holmes, they limit Scruggs to 19 carries for 66 yards and 108 total yards of offense.

 

I like the Juggs against WV in a close one.

 

It is a close match up but I say Walton Verona is the slight favorite. WV is 8-2 versus Lloyd 6-4 and the schedules are about the same strength. WV's best win beat Lloyd (Newport). Lloyd's best win beat WV (Gallatin Co.). Both played solid against Holmes and lost. Outside the Gallatin Co. win, Lloyd has beaten no one of significance. WV has a win over top ten 1A Bellevue, top 15 1A Ky. Country Day. Lloyd's last two games against decent opponents have not been good which makes me think they are not as good as they were earlier in the year for some reason. It isn't a clear favorite, but if I am naming one of those two the favorite, I am naming WV. It should be a good game.

Regionals:

1A: Beechwood beats Frankfort 27-20

2A: NCC beats Walton 28-14

4A: Highlands beats Johnson Central 42-21

5A: Scott beats Conner 28-20

6A: Simon beats Campbell Co. 24-20

Johnson Central will beat CovCath..again in 2nd round and will lose to Highlands in Regional final by 3 scores with the Bluebirds pulling away late.

 

"Again"...I'd have to go back and look but I think this series is something like 2-2.

Walton beat Newport 48-13 early in the year so I guess they'd be a 2 seed behind NCC, based on that logic. Once again, you can't compare scores to make predictions. That's why they play the games.

 

To be fair....Newport then and now are two completely different teams. Newport is finally healthy, hence the success over the past few weeks. They were extremely banged up at the beginning of the season.

It is a close match up but I say Walton Verona is the slight favorite. WV is 8-2 versus Lloyd 6-4 and the schedules are about the same strength. WV's best win beat Lloyd (Newport). Lloyd's best win beat WV (Gallatin Co.). Both played solid against Holmes and lost. Outside the Gallatin Co. win, Lloyd has beaten no one of significance. WV has a win over top ten 1A Bellevue, top 15 1A Ky. Country Day. Lloyd's last two games against decent opponents have not been good which makes me think they are not as good as they were earlier in the year for some reason. It isn't a clear favorite, but if I am naming one of those two the favorite, I am naming WV. It should be a good game.

 

Fair enough and valid points.

 

I think it will be a very good game as well.

Regionals:

1A: Beechwood beats Frankfort 27-20

2A: NCC beats Walton 28-14

4A: Highlands beats Johnson Central 42-21

5A: Scott beats Conner 28-20

6A: Simon beats Campbell Co. 24-20

 

I hope you're right with the 5A predicted region final...Anderson Co and South Oldham will be very tough to get by but definetly do able for Scott and Conner.