I agree, it appears you, I and Clyde are essentially making the same argument. That's why I quoted your and his earlier posts.

 

Don't quite get what your trying to say in your last graph above though. I agree, whichever class T is in 4A for my argument will be a one horse race most of the time. But, you asked if things will really change much in other classes and then went on to say they would be a little more competitive. There's your answer then. I do think it would change things in other classes.

 

 

What I meant about when I said things wouldn't change much in other classes was that it would probably be the same powerhouses that would win in a 4 class system as in the 6 class system but with a 4 class system you would have better competition between more teams simply because more teams would be in each class. Although more than likely when all said and done the same teams would win more often than not.

What I meant about when I said things wouldn't change much in other classes was that it would probably be the same powerhouses that would win in a 4 class system as in the 6 class system but with a 4 class system you would have better competition between more teams simply because more teams would be in each class. Although more than likely when all said and done the same teams would win more often than not.

 

You're probably right, but it wouldn't be near as often. Instead of possibly winning 10 straight titles in the current system, Highlands may only win 6. If you drop NewCath and some other 2A schools into class A, I think you really get an interesting mix. NewCath, Mayfield, and Beechwood would at least split the titles up.

 

Whether it's six classes, four classes, or even three classes, some schools are always going to get theirs. But with fewer classes you see a lot more parity and a lot less of the same team EVERY single year. Ugggh.

For the sake of argument, lets say you combined 1a and 2a, then 3a and 4a and then 5a and 6a and had 3 classes. Here's what you'd have in the smallest class:

 

Region 1 - Mayfield, Murray, Caldwell Co, OB Catholic, Hancock Co, Russellville

Region 2 - Dasales, Bardstown, CAL, Green Co, Glasgow, Frankfort

Region 3 - NCC, Beechwood, LCA, Danville, Fairview, Raceland

Region 4 - Pikeville, M'boro, Hazard, Somerset, P'Burg, W'Burg

 

I'm not saying this would be the exact way the regions would align, but, there'd definitely be a lot more competition in the earlier rounds of the playoffs and a lot more teams with a chance to win it all. That's at least 6 really good teams in every region, whereas now, you may have 2 or 3.

5A: With Highlands gone BG has 'benefited'. No doubt. But even had Highlands stayed BG would be very good with its current senior class. This definitely is a special group that I have seen since middle school. After this class graduates it will be interesting to see if BG reloads and will still dominate next year or if that class gets tighter. John Hardin may be less strong but as long the Hardin County schools stay in 5A they should be factors most years. Remember, the Army is moving lots of people into Fort Knox. There are lot of dynamics there and growth. Growth can create setbacks - even if the pool of overall players is better in the area (and it should be with influx). But what if the schools get large enough to go to 6A? Not sure how close they are are now. But schools sizes and their class assignment do change.

Changes in the near future - BG may come back to the rest after this year, but maybe not. Hardin schools should be in the mix most years and may become very strong in the next few years.

 

Ummm, not really. BRAC was a bill of goods that local marketers and developers sold the public -- so much so that Nelson Co. Schools bought it and built a new school out in the "growth area" where all these people transferring to Fort Knox would have allegedly been moving to. This new school, Thomas Nelson, was built despite the fact that Nelson Co. HS experienced enrollment decline in the 5-6 years leading up to TNHS' opening.

 

The big bump in population didn't happen -- base jobs (civilian and regular Army) just got shifted around and it was pretty much a zero sum. In fact, North Hardin dropped from 6A to 5A in the last big round of realignment, and as far as I know JH's enrollment hasn't changed much in the past decade.

 

I suppose my overall point is that JH's success relative to its local neighbors is because they've done things correctly in terms of coaching and program-building since the school opened, and the better FB players are gravitating there instead of North and E'town.

Ummm, not really. BRAC was a bill of goods that local marketers and developers sold the public -- so much so that Nelson Co. Schools bought it and built a new school out in the "growth area" where all these people transferring to Fort Knox would have allegedly been moving to. This new school, Thomas Nelson, was built despite the fact that Nelson Co. HS experienced enrollment decline in the 5-6 years leading up to TNHS' opening.

 

The big bump in population didn't happen -- base jobs (civilian and regular Army) just got shifted around and it was pretty much a zero sum. In fact, North Hardin dropped from 6A to 5A in the last big round of realignment, and as far as I know JH's enrollment hasn't changed much in the past decade.

 

I suppose my overall point is that JH's success relative to its local neighbors is because they've done things correctly in terms of coaching and program-building since the school opened, and the better FB players are gravitating there instead of North and E'town.

 

John Hardin's enrollment has actually dropped off a cliff in the last half decade. In the 2007-08 & 2008-09 school years they actually had a higher male enrollment than North Hardin, and appeared to be possibly on their way to 6A if they kept trending up. They have declined by 30% since 07-08 and they'll be 4A in the next alignment barring a serious influx. North Hardin meanwhile bumped up by 20% by 2011-12 before dipping back down a bit last year to settle in at 746 males. They'll be 6A barring a mass exodus. To Bluegrasscard's original point, there won't actually be any Hardin County schools in the next alignment. IMO, the only thing standing between Bowling Green and possibly 4 more titles is if CovCath ultimately gets bumped up into the class.

 

I mostly agree though on what makes John Hardin successful. But I do believe the enrollment bump helped and I think we're starting to see some of the negative effects in their slight decline.

John Hardin's enrollment has actually dropped off a cliff in the last half decade. In the 2007-08 & 2008-09 school years they actually had a higher male enrollment than North Hardin, and appeared to be possibly on their way to 6A if they kept trending up. They have declined by 30% since 07-08 and they'll be 4A in the next alignment barring a serious influx. North Hardin meanwhile bumped up by 20% by 2011-12 before dipping back down a bit last year to settle in at 746 males. They'll be 6A barring a mass exodus. To Bluegrasscard's original point, there won't actually be any Hardin County schools in the next alignment. IMO, the only thing standing between Bowling Green and possibly 4 more titles is if CovCath ultimately gets bumped up into the class.

 

I mostly agree though on what makes John Hardin successful. But I do believe the enrollment bump helped and I think we're starting to see some of the negative effects in their slight decline.

 

This year John Hardin has 981 students, compared to Central Hardin with more than 1850 and North Hardin with more than 1400. This is having a big impact on their athletic teams IMO. The football team is talented, but does not have the depth it has had the last 5 years and it shows on the football field. The coach's are getting the most out of the kids and their record speaks for itself, but they are really a 4A school as far as size goes right now. There are some redistricting talk going on right now but I am not sure if/when that will happen.

 

As for this year, I don't really care at this point what their record is as long as they win district, region, and have a chance to play Bowling Green in the State Semi Finals like the last two years.