March 13, 201313 yr Reds 78-3 when leading after 8 innings last year... Average ML team lost 3.7 when leading after 8 innings... Credit to Lance's twitter. I'm extremely happy Chapman is starting. Edited March 13, 201313 yr by HammerTime
March 13, 201313 yr Author I am a Yankee fan. If you have the right guy, he is worth his weight in gold. Like Sergio Romo? He was light out in the post season with a career save total of 17.
March 13, 201313 yr Like Sergio Romo? He was light out in the post season with a career save total of 17. There is nothing wrong with riding a hot hand, but if you think Mo's value was overstated to those Yankees championships then you didn't watch the games. (BTW, I'm pretty sure my last two posts got some likes from up above- miss ya Alabama Larry.)
March 13, 201313 yr HT's point will make me do some research and see how many teams won it all with a guy that didn't have at least 30 saves- recently, anyway.
March 13, 201313 yr Okay- I went back to 1986 and looked at stats for closers on the team that won the World Series (1986 is arbitrary in a sense, recent enough that the closer role was defined around the league and it is the first World Series that I remember- thank you Bill Buckner). Since 1986, I could find six seasons in which the World Series winning team did not have a 30 save closer. In 1988 the LA Dodgers had Jay Howell with 21. In 1995 the Atlanta Braves had Mark Wohlers with 25. In 2001 the Arizona Diamondbacks had Byun Hyun Kim with 19. In 2003 the Florida Marlins had Brayden Looper with 28. And then you have our last two winners in St. Louis and San Francisco that made it through the season by committee. I think an objective baseball fan will tell you that, while Wohlers only had 25 saves, that he was integral as the closer for that Braves team. Since 1986, two closers have been names World Series MVP (both Yankees, incidentally- Wetteland and Mo). What does this all mean- in modern baseball, you can win a World Series without a closer- but it sure is easier to win with one. Closers are not overrated, IMO.
March 13, 201313 yr Okay- I went back to 1986 and looked at stats for closers on the team that won the World Series (1986 is arbitrary in a sense, recent enough that the closer role was defined around the league and it is the first World Series that I remember- thank you Bill Buckner). Since 1986, I could find six seasons in which the World Series winning team did not have a 30 save closer. In 1988 the LA Dodgers had Jay Howell with 21. In 1995 the Atlanta Braves had Mark Wohlers with 25. In 2001 the Arizona Diamondbacks had Byun Hyun Kim with 19. In 2003 the Florida Marlins had Brayden Looper with 28. And then you have our last two winners in St. Louis and San Francisco that made it through the season by committee. I think an objective baseball fan will tell you that, while Wohlers only had 25 saves, that he was integral as the closer for that Braves team. Since 1986, two closers have been names World Series MVP (both Yankees, incidentally- Wetteland and Mo). What does this all mean- in modern baseball, you can win a World Series without a closer- but it sure is easier to win with one. Closers are not overrated, IMO. By nature, the team that wins the World Series is automatically going to have a closer with a high number of saves. Typically a manager names a closer and that person keeps the job the whole year. Since the team who wins the World Series wins a lot of games during the regular season, the person designated as the closer gets a lot of save opportunities.
March 13, 201313 yr Then why didn't the Diamondback's keep Kim as their closer? Why did the Reds replace Marshall last year? He has all the career metrics to be successful as a closer, why replace him if closers are interchangeable? Maybe the 9th innings guy isn't the end all be all to being successful--but a lights out bullpen is a huge advantage. Chapman has demonstrated that he has less than average mechanics, he produces a high pitch count, is horrible holding runners and lacks an effective 3rd pitch. Couple that high pitch count with an innings limit and he could be a drain on the bullpen even when effective. His fastball velocity is about 8 mph slower as a starter. That will lower the effectiveness of his slider. See what happened to Neftali Perez and Daniel Bard when those flamethrowers moved to the rotation. Why mess with a proven formula? The makeup of the Reds pitching was not the problem, it was their hitting.
March 13, 201313 yr Reds 78-3 when leading after 8 innings last year... Average ML team lost 3.7 when leading after 8 innings... Credit to Lance's twitter. I'm extremely happy Chapman is starting. Because everyone has a closer. Credit to spindoc's logic.
March 13, 201313 yr Because everyone has a closer. Credit to spindoc's logic. But Lance is smarter than every GM and manager in baseball. The term "closer" may be overrated but shortening a game is most certainly not. If your starters know they need to throw 6 good innings because you have Marshall, Broxton and Chapman on the back end, they'll take it every time.
March 13, 201313 yr But Lance is smarter than every GM and manager in baseball. The term "closer" may be overrated but shortening a game is most certainly not. If your starters know they need to throw 6 good innings because you have Marshall, Broxton and Chapman on the back end, they'll take it every time. Preaching to the choir, and of course those who have yet to recognize the err of their ways like HT.:no: I'll say it here in black and white, if Broxton isn't what they've hoped for, this season will not be what they expect. 3.7 will turn into 12.7 unless there is someone else who can shorten the game. Then we have an extra inning for Dusty to have to manage. :whistling:
March 13, 201313 yr Author Preaching to the choir, and of course those who have yet to recognize the err of their ways like HT.:no: I'll say it here in black and white, if Broxton isn't what they've hoped for, this season will not be what they expect. 3.7 will turn into 12.7 unless there is someone else who can shorten the game. Then we have an extra inning for Dusty to have to manage. :whistling: There is nothing wrong with riding a hot hand, but if you think Mo's value was overstated to those Yankees championships then you didn't watch the games. (BTW, I'm pretty sure my last two posts got some likes from up above- miss ya Alabama Larry.) Multiple stats have proved it's overrated in the past. I'm not going to dig all those up. I'm not basing my opinion on what that fool Lance thinks. I thought it was an interesting stat to add the the argument. It's like an Xbox PS3 debate. You aren't going to change anyone's mind that is on the other side of the argument. Point is it's only a very slight downgrade at best removing him from the closer spot with the possibly of a HUGE upgrade to the rotation. 8 of the top 10 guys in terms of saves had less blown saves than Chapman last year. Just because he's flashy and fun to watch when he hits 100 doesn't mean he should be locked into that role because it's exciting. Doesn't matter how you get 3 outs as long as you get it done. Coredero successfully saved 86% of his chances with the Reds. People basically ran him out of town because he "sucked". Chapman in his time with the Reds is 83%. Edited March 13, 201313 yr by HammerTime
March 13, 201313 yr What do Jim Johnson, Francisco Rodney, Craig Kimbrel, Rafael Soriano, Chris Perez, Jonathon Papelbon, Joe Nathan, and Joel Hanrahan have in common?
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