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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 554 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Kentucky Southeast Ohio Central West Virginia * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over southeast Ohio are expected to persist through the afternoon and spread across the watch area. Locally damaging winds are possible with the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Huntington WV to 10 miles south of Elkins WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

Cincinnati Tuesday looks like it could be a rough day for thunderstorms across the Cincinnati area. A stalled front will be located near northern Kentucky, with warm and very humid air building south of it. That should provide plenty of instability for storms to develop during the afternoon. The main concern will be damaging winds, especially if storms can organize into a line. A few storms could also become supercells, bringing large hail and an isolated tornado threat. Storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and could move east-southeast through the evening. Cincinnati and Northern Kentucky should be prepared for strong to severe storms, particularly from mid-afternoon into the evening. Kentucky Much of Kentucky will be warm, humid, and unstable Tuesday, especially across the northern and central parts of the state. Thunderstorms may develop along the stalled front during the afternoon and could quickly become organized. The biggest concern is damaging straight-line winds, but large hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain and frequent lightning will also be possible. The tricky part will be figuring out exactly where the front sets up after any morning storms. That could shift the location of the strongest afternoon storms. Overall, Tuesday has the potential to be a significant severe weather day for parts of Kentucky, with the greatest concern for damaging winds from the afternoon into the evening.

Mesoscale Discussion 1816 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026 Areas affected...portions of southern Indiana and Ohio into central Kentucky and middle Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011731Z - 012000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a cold front and surface cyclone this afternoon across the OH/TN Valleys. A mixed mode of clusters and supercell structures could pose a risk for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. A WW is possible, but uncertain. DISCUSSION...As of 1730 UTC visible and radar imagery showed showers and incipient thunderstorms intensifying along a broad frontal zone over the lower OH valley. Diffuse heating amid lingering clouds ahead of the front and occluded surface cyclone have raised surface temperatures into upper 70s to low 80s F in a very moist surface air mass. While overall lapse rate profiles are modest, the heating and weak ascent from the associate upper low overspreading the area is supporting continuing destabilization this afternoon with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg expected. Storm coverage is forecast to increase from IN, southward across KY and into parts of OH and middle TN this afternoon. A belt of stronger westerly flow aloft is supporting 30-35 kt of effective shear and modest low-level hodograph curvature evident on area VADs. This suggests a mix of organized multicells and transient supercell structures is likely. The high PWATs will favor water-loading of the downdrafts and some damaging gusts potential, especially for cells that can cluster. The tornado risk is less clear, but focused low-level buoyancy, plentiful ambient vertical vorticity and 0-500m SRH of 75-150 m2/s could support a couple of tornadoes with any potential supercells. This could be locally focused where the most robust surface heating is occurring, and where low-level flow remains backed along portions of the OH river in southern IN northern KY and southwest OH. Given the expected increase in thunderstorms with some risk for damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes, a WW is being considered. However, the lingering cloud cover and nebulous forcing lend low confidence on timing and where the greatest threat may occu

We are seeing breaks in the cloud cover here in the Richmond area.

Updated information. It appears the tornado threat has increased somewhat, depending on whether clouds break. Storms are expected to develop across Kentucky this afternoon as a storm system pushes into the Ohio Valley. The first storms should form over western and central Kentucky before moving east through the evening, eventually reaching eastern Kentucky and the Cincinnati metro. Some areas may stay cloudier than others, which could limit how strong storms become. Even so, enough heat and humidity should build for scattered storms to turn severe. The biggest threat will be damaging wind gusts, with the strongest storms capable of bringing down trees, damaging power lines, and causing isolated power outages. Heavy rain and frequent lightning will also accompany many of the storms. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out, especially across northern and east-central Kentucky, including areas around Louisville, Lexington, and Maysville, and extending toward the Cincinnati area. This is where conditions will be most favorable if storms can fully develop this afternoon and evening. For Cincinnati, expect thunderstorms to become more numerous later this afternoon and continue into the evening. Damaging winds remain the greatest concern, but an isolated tornado is possible if a stronger storm can take advantage of the favorable wind pattern. If you have outdoor plans today, keep an eye on the sky and have a reliable way to receive weather warnings. Storms may strengthen quickly, leaving little time to react.

This is from the Storm Prediction Center. It pretty much lines up with my forecast about timing.

A BGP Severe Weather Alert Day will be in effect for later today. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across Kentucky and the Cincinnati area this afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Warm, humid air combined with daytime heating will allow storms to become stronger as the afternoon progresses. Storms will likely begin west of I-65 in Kentucky before spreading eastward through Kentucky, northern Kentucky, and the Cincinnati metro area. Some of the first storms to form may stay separate from the rest, giving them a better chance to become severe before they eventually join into a line moving east this evening. Damaging wind gusts are expected to be the biggest threat, with the potential to bring down trees, damage power lines, and cause power outages. Large hail, torrential rain, and frequent lightning will also be possible in the strongest storms. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out today. The best chance will be across central, northern, and parts of eastern Kentucky, including Louisville, Lexington, towards the Morehead-Ashland area, northern Kentucky, and the Cincinnati area. Any storm that remains isolated during the afternoon could briefly rotate and produce a tornado before the storms organize into a line. After that happens, damaging winds will become the primary concern, although a brief tornado could still develop within the line. Storms should gradually weaken after sunset as they move east of the area. Everyone across Kentucky and the Cincinnati region should stay weather-aware this afternoon and evening and be ready to act if a warning is issued. The following from the HRRR cloud cover map is a little concerning to me. It shows some breaks in the cloud cover from mid- to late afternoon. If this occurs, these areas might become more unstable and allow individual cells that form ahead of the cold front to become supercells that could produce tornadoes. The period between 4 and 9 pm EDT is when you should be alert and have more than one way to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued for your area. The Storm Prediction Center has widened the level 2 out of 5 slight risk area to cover this same area.

A strong storm system will move in Saturday for an active weather day across Kentucky and the Cincinnati area. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some very heavy rainfall. The highest rainfall totals are expected to stay north across Illinois and Indiana, but much of Kentucky and the Cincinnati metro could still pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated spots seeing more than 3 inches if storms repeatedly move over the same area. Localized flash flooding will be the main concern, especially in low-lying areas, places with poor drainage, and near small creeks and streams. Roads could quickly become flooded during the heaviest downpours. A few storms may also produce gusty winds and frequent lightning, but the biggest impact for most communities will be the heavy rain. Keep an eye on the forecast if you have outdoor plans, as weather conditions could change quickly from morning through Saturday evening. If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and don't drown.

A storm system moving out of the Midwest will bring another round of unsettled weather to Kentucky and the Cincinnati area on Saturday. A warm and humid air mass will be in place, allowing showers and thunderstorms to develop across the region. Rain and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing during the morning hours, especially across Kentucky, southern Indiana, and the Cincinnati area. Early storms and widespread cloud cover may limit daytime heating, which could keep the severe weather threat somewhat uncertain. By late morning into the afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop and strengthen as the cold front moves east. If enough instability develops, some storms could become strong to severe. The main concern will be damaging straight-line winds, especially from storms that organize into clusters or lines. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out, especially near the low-pressure system and in areas closer to the Ohio River, where winds could become more favorable for rotation. However, the tornado threat remains limited because morning storms and reduced heating may prevent the atmosphere from becoming fully unstable. The best chance for stronger storms will be from late morning through early evening before conditions gradually improve behind the cold front. Along with damaging winds, storms may produce heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and localized flooding.

Saturday looks to be another active weather day across Kentucky and the Cincinnati area as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. Showers and thunderstorms may already be underway Saturday morning, which could affect how the atmosphere recovers later in the day. If enough sunshine breaks through during the afternoon, conditions will become favorable for another round of strong to severe thunderstorms. Storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and continue into the evening, spreading from Indiana into Kentucky before pushing farther south. The biggest concern will be damaging straight-line winds that could bring down trees, cause scattered power outages, and produce localized damage. While the overall tornado threat appears low, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially across northern and central Kentucky and near the Cincinnati area where wind shear will be a little stronger. Large hail is not expected to be a major concern, as the atmosphere does not appear favorable for widespread hail-producing storms. If you have outdoor plans Saturday afternoon or evening, keep a close eye on the forecast and have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. Storms could strengthen quickly once they develop.

Saturday will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to Kentucky and the Cincinnati area. Some storms may already be ongoing during the morning, with additional thunderstorms developing through the afternoon as the atmosphere becomes more unstable. Not everyone will see severe weather, but any location that gets a little sunshine between rounds of rain could see storms strengthen quickly. The main concern will be damaging wind gusts that could bring down trees and power lines, leading to isolated power outages. Heavy rain and frequent lightning will also accompany the stronger storms. Although the tornado threat is fairly low, it isn't zero. A few storms could briefly rotate, especially across central and northern Kentucky and into the Cincinnati area. Storms are expected to be most active from late morning through the early evening before gradually weakening Saturday night as a cold front pushes through. If you're heading to any outdoor events, keep an eye on the sky and have a way to receive weather warnings. Conditions can change quickly once storms begin to develop.

Another active day of thunderstorms is expected for Kentucky and the Cincinnati area as a very warm, humid air mass remains in place across the Ohio Valley. The main question this morning is how thunderstorms developing farther to the northwest will evolve. If they can coalesce into a large storm complex and maintain that as they move southeast, they could reach parts of Kentucky and the Cincinnati area later today and tonight. The atmosphere will be very moist and unstable and will provide plenty of fuel for storms to intensify. If enough sunshine occurs between rain events, storms could become more intense in the afternoon and evening. Dew points could range in the mid to low 70s west of I-75. In the low to mid 60s east of that point. The main threat would be damaging straight-line winds with a well-organized line of storms, if it develops, and they may produce widespread wind damage. Very large isolated hail, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall also look possible. The tornado threat looks a little less than the wind threat, but a brief tornado can't be ruled out, especially if storms run into lingering boundaries from earlier rainfall. There is growing confidence in the forecast for a fast-moving line of storms to develop somewhere across the Midwest and track into the Ohio Valley. But the precise timing and track are still not clear and will depend on how the morning storms unfold. Residents of Kentucky and the Cincinnati metro area should stay weather-aware today, have multiple ways to receive warnings, and be prepared for rapidly changing conditions, especially late this afternoon through tonight. Because of this information, BGP will be in a severe weather alert day for later today.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 516 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southwest Indiana Western into Central Kentucky * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 510 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify through the early and mid evening. A couple of the stronger storms will probably acquire supercell structure and pose a risk for large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado through the early evening. As additional storms develop and outflow becomes more prevalent, strong to severe gusts (55 to 70 mph) capable of wind damage will become the primary severe hazard towards the mid to late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northeast of Salem IL to 30 miles southwest of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Paducah KY 1214 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 ILZ076>078-082-083-086-087-091-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ010>022- 262100- /O.CON.KPAH.HT.Y.0006.260726T1600Z-260727T0000Z/ Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Hamilton-White-Saline-Gallatin-Hardin- Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-Warrick-Spencer-Crittenden-Lyon- Trigg-Caldwell-Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson- Daviess-McLean-Muhlenberg-Todd- Including the cities of Fairfield, Albion, Mount Carmel, McLeansboro, Carmi, Harrisburg, Shawneetown, Elizabethtown, Fort Branch, Petersburg, Poseyville, Evansville, Boonville, Rockport, Marion, Eddyville, Cadiz, Princeton, Morganfield, Dixon, Madisonville, Hopkinsville, Henderson, Owensboro, Calhoun, Greenville, and Elkton 1214 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 /114 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026/ ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CDT /NOON EDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values up to around 105 degrees expected, with locally higher values possible. * WHERE...All of southwest Indiana, and neighboring portions of southeast Illinois, northwest Kentucky, and the Pennyrile region of western Kentucky east of the Lakes. * WHEN...From 11 AM CDT /noon EDT/ to 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Sunday. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This Advisory is in effect along and east of a line from Fairfield, Illinois, to Cadiz, Kentucky. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Paducah KY 1214 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 ILZ075-080-081-084-085-088>090-092>094-KYZ001>009-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-262100- /O.EXB.KPAH.HT.Y.0006.260727T0000Z-260729T0000Z/ /O.CON.KPAH.XH.W.0003.260726T1600Z-260727T0000Z/ Jefferson-Perry IL-Franklin-Jackson-Williamson-Union-Johnson-Pope- Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard- McCracken-Graves-Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Perry MO-Bollinger- Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott- Mississippi-New Madrid- Including the cities of Mount Vernon, Pinckneyville, West Frankfort, Carbondale, Murphysboro, Herrin, Jonesboro, Vienna, Golconda, Cairo, Mound City, Metropolis, Hickman, Clinton, Bardwell, Wickliffe, Paducah, Mayfield, Smithland, Benton, Murray, Perryville, Marble Hill, Cape Girardeau, Jackson, Piedmont, Van Buren, Doniphan, Poplar Bluff, Bloomfield, Sikeston, Charleston, and New Madrid 1214 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026 ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING... ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Extreme Heat Warning, Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 112 degrees expected, with locally higher values possible. For the Heat Advisory, heat index values up to around 109 degrees expected, with locally higher values possible. * WHERE...All of southeast Missouri, and neighboring portions of southwest Illinois and far western Kentucky. * WHEN...For the Extreme Heat Warning, from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening. For the Heat Advisory, from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This Warning and Advisory is in effect along and west of a line from Mount Vernon, Illinois, to Murray, Kentucky. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.

Kentucky and the Cincinnati area could see strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. The biggest question is how much sunshine the region gets after any morning storms. If skies clear and temperatures warm up, the atmosphere will become much more unstable, increasing the chance for severe weather later in the day. Storms are expected to develop to the northwest during the afternoon before organizing into a line and moving into Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and the Cincinnati area Monday evening and Monday night. The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds, but large hail will also be possible. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out, especially if a few storms stay isolated before joining the main line. The greatest chance for severe weather in Kentucky and Cincinnati will be Monday evening through the overnight hours. Conditions could warrant parts of the region being upgraded to an enhanced risk if confidence continues to increase. Now is a good time to review your severe weather safety plan and be prepared for warnings Monday evening and Monday night.

Kentucky and the Cincinnati area should stay mostly quiet through much of Monday as warm, humid air continues to build ahead of the next weather system. However, instability will increase by late afternoon and especially Monday night. A strengthening storm system moving through the Great Lakes will drag a cold front toward the Ohio Valley. As this happens, conditions will become favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms. The best time for storm formation will be Monday night, when a cluster of storms could organize over the Midwest and track southeast toward parts of Kentucky, southern Ohio, and the Cincinnati metro. If the storms hold together, they could bring widespread damaging straight-line winds, with a few wind gusts potentially reaching severe levels. Heavy rain, frequent lightning, and isolated large hail are also possible. There is still some uncertainty about exactly where the strongest storms will track. Everyone in and around central and northern Kentucky, including the Cincinnati area and the bluegrass region, should monitor the forecast closely as the severe weather threat may increase in later outlooks. The primary storm modes appear to be damaging winds, with the greatest risk arriving Monday evening through the overnight hours.

The weather in Kentucky and the Cincinnati area might get bad again on Monday and Monday night. This is because a big storm system is moving east across the Midwest. The Kentucky and Cincinnati area will probably see thunderstorms on Monday. The best chance for storms is Monday evening and night. The main problem with these storms will be damaging winds. Some storms might also produce hail. Now it looks like the biggest risk is in northern Kentucky, the Bluegrass region in Kentucky, and the Cincinnati area. Strong storms could happen in other places too, depending on what happens earlier in the day with the storms. People who live in Kentucky and the Cincinnati area should keep checking the weather forecast over the next few days. If the storms do not fall apart, the main thing to worry about will be the winds. There is also a chance that some storms could produce hail. The tornado threat is low but not zero.

https://www.weather.gov/lmk/July21st2026SevereWeather

@theguru