Saturday will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to Kentucky and the Cincinnati area.

Some storms may already be ongoing during the morning, with additional thunderstorms developing through the afternoon as the atmosphere becomes more unstable. Not everyone will see severe weather, but any location that gets a little sunshine between rounds of rain could see storms strengthen quickly.

The main concern will be damaging wind gusts that could bring down trees and power lines, leading to isolated power outages. Heavy rain and frequent lightning will also accompany the stronger storms. Although the tornado threat is fairly low, it isn't zero. A few storms could briefly rotate, especially across central and northern Kentucky and into the Cincinnati area.

Storms are expected to be most active from late morning through the early evening before gradually weakening Saturday night as a cold front pushes through. If you're heading to any outdoor events, keep an eye on the sky and have a way to receive weather warnings. Conditions can change quickly once storms begin to develop.

Saturday looks to be another active weather day across Kentucky and the Cincinnati area as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. Showers and thunderstorms may already be underway Saturday morning, which could affect how the atmosphere recovers later in the day. If enough sunshine breaks through during the afternoon, conditions will become favorable for another round of strong to severe thunderstorms.

Storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and continue into the evening, spreading from Indiana into Kentucky before pushing farther south. The biggest concern will be damaging straight-line winds that could bring down trees, cause scattered power outages, and produce localized damage. While the overall tornado threat appears low, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially across northern and central Kentucky and near the Cincinnati area where wind shear will be a little stronger.

Large hail is not expected to be a major concern, as the atmosphere does not appear favorable for widespread hail-producing storms.

If you have outdoor plans Saturday afternoon or evening, keep a close eye on the forecast and have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. Storms could strengthen quickly once they develop.

A storm system moving out of the Midwest will bring another round of unsettled weather to Kentucky and the Cincinnati area on Saturday. A warm and humid air mass will be in place, allowing showers and thunderstorms to develop across the region. Rain and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing during the morning hours, especially across Kentucky, southern Indiana, and the Cincinnati area. Early storms and widespread cloud cover may limit daytime heating, which could keep the severe weather threat somewhat uncertain.

By late morning into the afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop and strengthen as the cold front moves east. If enough instability develops, some storms could become strong to severe. The main concern will be damaging straight-line winds, especially from storms that organize into clusters or lines. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out, especially near the low-pressure system and in areas closer to the Ohio River, where winds could become more favorable for rotation. However, the tornado threat remains limited because morning storms and reduced heating may prevent the atmosphere from becoming fully unstable.

The best chance for stronger storms will be from late morning through early evening before conditions gradually improve behind the cold front. Along with damaging winds, storms may produce heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and localized flooding.

A strong storm system will move in Saturday for an active weather day across Kentucky and the Cincinnati area. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected, with some very heavy rainfall. The highest rainfall totals are expected to stay north across Illinois and Indiana, but much of Kentucky and the Cincinnati metro could still pick up 1 to 3 inches of rain, with isolated spots seeing more than 3 inches if storms repeatedly move over the same area. Localized flash flooding will be the main concern, especially in low-lying areas, places with poor drainage, and near small creeks and streams. Roads could quickly become flooded during the heaviest downpours.

A few storms may also produce gusty winds and frequent lightning, but the biggest impact for most communities will be the heavy rain.

Keep an eye on the forecast if you have outdoor plans, as weather conditions could change quickly from morning through Saturday evening. If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and don't drown.

A BGP Severe Weather Alert Day will be in effect for later today. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across Kentucky and the Cincinnati area this afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Warm, humid air combined with daytime heating will allow storms to become stronger as the afternoon progresses.

Storms will likely begin west of I-65 in Kentucky before spreading eastward through Kentucky, northern Kentucky, and the Cincinnati metro area. Some of the first storms to form may stay separate from the rest, giving them a better chance to become severe before they eventually join into a line moving east this evening.

Damaging wind gusts are expected to be the biggest threat, with the potential to bring down trees, damage power lines, and cause power outages. Large hail, torrential rain, and frequent lightning will also be possible in the strongest storms.

An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out today. The best chance will be across central, northern, and parts of eastern Kentucky, including Louisville, Lexington, towards the Morehead-Ashland area, northern Kentucky, and the Cincinnati area. Any storm that remains isolated during the afternoon could briefly rotate and produce a tornado before the storms organize into a line. After that happens, damaging winds will become the primary concern, although a brief tornado could still develop within the line.

Storms should gradually weaken after sunset as they move east of the area. Everyone across Kentucky and the Cincinnati region should stay weather-aware this afternoon and evening and be ready to act if a warning is issued.

The following from the HRRR cloud cover map is a little concerning to me. It shows some breaks in the cloud cover from mid- to late afternoon. If this occurs, these areas might become more unstable and allow individual cells that form ahead of the cold front to become supercells that could produce tornadoes. The period between 4 and 9 pm EDT is when you should be alert and have more than one way to receive any watches or warnings that may be issued for your area. The Storm Prediction Center has widened the level 2 out of 5 slight risk area to cover this same area.

This is from the Storm Prediction Center. It pretty much lines up with my forecast about timing.

Updated information. It appears the tornado threat has increased somewhat, depending on whether clouds break.

Storms are expected to develop across Kentucky this afternoon as a storm system pushes into the Ohio Valley. The first storms should form over western and central Kentucky before moving east through the evening, eventually reaching eastern Kentucky and the Cincinnati metro.

Some areas may stay cloudier than others, which could limit how strong storms become. Even so, enough heat and humidity should build for scattered storms to turn severe. The biggest threat will be damaging wind gusts, with the strongest storms capable of bringing down trees, damaging power lines, and causing isolated power outages. Heavy rain and frequent lightning will also accompany many of the storms.

A brief tornado cannot be ruled out, especially across northern and east-central Kentucky, including areas around Louisville, Lexington, and Maysville, and extending toward the Cincinnati area. This is where conditions will be most favorable if storms can fully develop this afternoon and evening.

For Cincinnati, expect thunderstorms to become more numerous later this afternoon and continue into the evening. Damaging winds remain the greatest concern, but an isolated tornado is possible if a stronger storm can take advantage of the favorable wind pattern.

If you have outdoor plans today, keep an eye on the sky and have a reliable way to receive weather warnings. Storms may strengthen quickly, leaving little time to react.

We are seeing breaks in the cloud cover here in the Richmond area.

Mesoscale Discussion 1816

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1231 PM CDT Sat Aug 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Indiana and Ohio into central

Kentucky and middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 011731Z - 012000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a

cold front and surface cyclone this afternoon across the OH/TN

Valleys. A mixed mode of clusters and supercell structures could

pose a risk for damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. A WW is

possible, but uncertain.

DISCUSSION...As of 1730 UTC visible and radar imagery showed showers

and incipient thunderstorms intensifying along a broad frontal zone

over the lower OH valley. Diffuse heating amid lingering clouds

ahead of the front and occluded surface cyclone have raised surface

temperatures into upper 70s to low 80s F in a very moist surface air

mass. While overall lapse rate profiles are modest, the heating and

weak ascent from the associate upper low overspreading the area is

supporting continuing destabilization this afternoon with MLCAPE of

1000-2000 J/kg expected. Storm coverage is forecast to increase from

IN, southward across KY and into parts of OH and middle TN this

afternoon.

A belt of stronger westerly flow aloft is supporting 30-35 kt of

effective shear and modest low-level hodograph curvature evident on

area VADs. This suggests a mix of organized multicells and transient

supercell structures is likely. The high PWATs will favor

water-loading of the downdrafts and some damaging gusts potential,

especially for cells that can cluster.

The tornado risk is less clear, but focused low-level buoyancy,

plentiful ambient vertical vorticity and 0-500m SRH of 75-150 m2/s

could support a couple of tornadoes with any potential supercells.

This could be locally focused where the most robust surface heating

is occurring, and where low-level flow remains backed along portions

of the OH river in southern IN northern KY and southwest OH.

Given the expected increase in thunderstorms with some risk for

damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes, a WW is being considered.

However, the lingering cloud cover and nebulous forcing lend low

confidence on timing and where the greatest threat may occu

The Walton Verona storm sounded like it was headed our way, so we went downstairs, but it appeared to fizzle out before it reached Taylor Mill.