For Tuesday, Kentucky and the Cincinnati area will be under an increasing threat for strong to severe thunderstorms as a cold front moves east-southeast through the Ohio Valley.

Warm, humid air ahead of the front will create an unstable atmosphere, allowing thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and continue into the evening. The greatest threat will be damaging straight-line winds, with some wind gusts capable of exceeding 60 mph. Large hail will also be possible in the strongest storms, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out if any storms become more organized.

Storms are expected to develop across Kentucky and move east-southeast through the state, reaching northern Kentucky and the Cincinnati metro area by early afternoon before continuing east-southeast through the evening. While severe weather is possible statewide, central, eastern, and south-central Kentucky, along with northern Kentucky and Cincinnati, could see the strongest storms as the cold front pushes through.

Residents should monitor the latest forecasts and be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions Tuesday afternoon and evening. Outdoor plans may be impacted by heavy rain, frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, and localized power outages where the strongest storms develop.

 

This forecast will be find tuned as we get closer to Tuesday.

 

Forgot this simulated 6 hr lightning flash density map. 

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are possible in the Kentucky and Cincinnati regions from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night

Among the factors of a slow-moving cold front are warm and moist air. This will lead to the potential of several thunderstorms during the day. Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, the remaining potential for strong and/or severe thunderstorms exists.

Thunderstorms will move into the Cincinnati area from Kentucky and will pose a threat of severe thunderstorm winds. Isolated large hail and tornadoes remain possible as well, especially among any storms that form ahead of the line of thunderstorms.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be likely Tuesday through Tuesday night, with the continued possibility of several thunderstorms on Wednesday.

Most of Kentucky and Cincinnati will see the greatest likelihood of severe weather Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. While the forecast may still change, the greatest concern will remain during those hours.
 

The severe threat for Tuesday is increasing. A level 3 out of 5 enhanced risk area that includes Frankfort, Richmond, Lexington, northern Kentucky, and the Cincinnati area has already been issued. Most of the rest of Kentucky is under a level 2 out of 5 slight-risk area.

A strong weather system will move into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, bringing the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across Kentucky and the Cincinnati area.

The day will start warm and very humid, with temperatures climbing into the 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. If enough sunshine develops during the afternoon, the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable, allowing thunderstorms to rapidly strengthen.

Storms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front during the afternoon and evening in central Indiana, moving southeast towards the Kentucky and Cincinnati areas later in the day and into the evening.

The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds capable of downing trees and power lines. Large hail and a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially if individual storms form before merging into larger lines.

Heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and brief localized flooding are also possible with the strongest storms.

Everyone across Kentucky and the Cincinnati area should stay weather-aware Tuesday afternoon and evening and be prepared to move indoors quickly if severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings are issued.

 

 

 

@theguru

Information I just received from the NWS-Louisville office.

Good morning,

Confidence is increasing for severe weather on Tuesday afternoon and evening as a strong low pressure kicks off a line of storms over the Ohio Valley. Damaging winds and tornadoes are possible in this setup as the right ingredients of increased moisture and strong winds high up in the atmosphere will be in place by Tuesday. Now is the time to prepare for damaging winds bringing down trees and power lines. Additionally, know of a safe place to be should a tornado move through your area, being the innermost and lowest level room of your home. We will provide updates about this event as Tuesday draws closer. Let us know if you have any questions.

 

 

 

Tuesday looks to be another active day for severe weather in Kentucky and the Cincinnati area as a potent weather system moves through the Ohio Valley.

Warm, moist air will flow into the region on Tuesday with dew points in the 70s. A cold front will push into the area from the northwest, bringing thunderstorms for the afternoon and into the evening, with storms becoming more widespread overnight.

The atmosphere will be quite unstable Tuesday with wind becoming increasingly gusty at higher levels. Thunderstorms will have the potential to quickly organize into large storm complexes with supercells forming and then merging with adjacent storms.

The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds capable of taking down trees and power lines across central and northern parts of the state as well as the Cincinnati area. Large hail will also be a concern with the strongest storms, especially later on in the afternoon and evening.

A few tornadoes are also possible, especially with any isolated thunderstorms that don’t merge with other storms that might persist in the enhanced risk area. A few tornadoes are likely, though not everyone will see one.

The corridor from western/central KY through northern KY, Cincinnati, southern Indiana, and into Ohio appears to be best poised for severe weather. The enhanced risk (3/5) area has expanded since this morning

If you have any outdoor plans Tuesday afternoon or evening, be sure to remain weather aware and have multiple means of hearing about severe weather. Conditions could allow for thunderstorms to quickly erupt and produce damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning strikes, torrential rainfall amounts, and a few tornadoes.

 

Monday morning update.

Tuesday is shaping up to be another active severe weather day for Kentucky and the Cincinnati area as a strong storm system moves through the Ohio Valley.
Warm, humid air will be in place ahead of an approaching cold front, creating the fuel needed for thunderstorms to rapidly strengthen during the afternoon and evening. At the same time, strong winds high in the atmosphere will help storms organize, increasing the potential for severe weather.

The main threat will be damaging straight-line winds, with some storms capable of producing wind gusts over 65 mph. Large hail is also possible, and while the tornado threat appears lower than the wind threat, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out if individual storms remain isolated before joining into a larger line.
There is still some uncertainty about exactly how the storms will develop and where the strongest storms will track. However, confidence is growing that much of Kentucky, including Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green, Richmond, and northern Kentucky, along with the Cincinnati metro area, could see strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.

If you have outdoor plans, keep an eye on the forecast and have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. Storms could strengthen quickly, and conditions may change in a short amount of time. The greatest concern remains damaging winds, but all types of severe weather—including large hail, heavy rain, frequent lightning, and an isolated tornado will be possible.

The enhanced risk area (3/5) has been scaled back some this morning. Everyone should keep abreast of the possibility of severe weather on Tuesday. On the flip side, the slight risk area (2/5) has been expanded to cover almost all of Kentucky.

 

 

 

Monday afternoon update:

Tuesday looks like another active weather day across Kentucky and the Cincinnati area, with thunderstorms possible from morning into the evening.

Some storms may already be moving through northern Kentucky and the Cincinnati area early Tuesday morning. Instead of fading away, these storms could strengthen again after sunrise as the air heats up and becomes more unstable. They will likely continue pushing south and east through the morning.

As the day warms up, more thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of an approaching cold front. The main threat is damaging winds, with gusts of over 60 mph. Some could see knocking down trees and damaging power lines, which could lead to scattered power outages.

During the afternoon and evening, a few storms could redevelop and become more organized. While the overall tornado risk remains low, an isolated tornado or pockets of large hail can't be ruled out, especially if individual storms are able to develop ahead of the main line.

Another round of storms may arrive later in the day as the cold front moves through. If those storms merge into a larger line, they could bring another period of damaging winds before gradually weakening Tuesday night.

The exact timing and strength of the storms will depend on what happens with the morning activity. If morning storms move out quickly and skies partially clear, the atmosphere will have a better chance to recharge, increasing the potential for stronger storms later in the day.

The primary threat across Kentucky and the Cincinnati area will be damaging winds, followed by heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and a small risk of large hail or an isolated tornado.

Keep an eye on the forecast throughout Tuesday and make sure you have a way to receive weather warnings, as conditions could change quickly if severe storms develop.
 

 

 

 

 

Kentucky and the Cincinnati area are in for another round of stormy weather as a cold front sweeps across the Ohio Valley. Storms are expected to begin developing during the late morning and afternoon across western Kentucky before spreading east through the rest of the state and into the Cincinnati area later in the day and evening.

Warm, humid air and a few breaks of sunshine will help fuel the storms, while strong winds higher in the atmosphere will allow some of them to become severe. The biggest concern will be damaging wind gusts that could reach 60 to 70 mph, capable of bringing down trees, damaging power lines, and causing scattered power outages. Some of the stronger storms may also produce large hail.

There is also a small chance that a few storms could briefly rotate and produce a tornado, especially if they develop ahead of the main line of storms. While the tornado risk is lower than the wind threat, it's something that shouldn't be ignored.

The highest risk for severe weather will move from western Kentucky during the afternoon into central, eastern, and northern Kentucky, including the Cincinnati metro area, during the late afternoon and evening.

If you have outdoor plans, keep a close eye on the weather throughout the day. Make sure you have a way to receive warnings, and be ready to head indoors quickly if severe weather approaches.

 

 

 

 

The severe threat for today has increased.

 

 

 

https://www.wlky.com/article/tornado-owen-county-kentucky-july-21/73221495