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Nathaniel Bryan

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Everything posted by Nathaniel Bryan

  1. If a 6-4 team is anywhere close to a 9-1 team in the points win tiebreaker ... than FIVE (more than half) wins for the 9-1 team don't mean squat. Thus, cupcake. But 4/6 wins (more than 2 thirds) of wins for 6-4 almost equaled 4/9 wins for 9-1. Thus, 6-4 played a better schedule. Theoretically in a six-team district three wins would cancel out (assuming A-B-C are in the tiebreaker and they all swept D-E-F). Conner was 8-2 (not 9-1, 7-3 or 6-4) after beating CovCath in the final regular-season game in 2012. 2012 District Football Standings | Kentucky High School Athletic Association Class 5A, District 5 Overall District (1)South Oldham 7 - 3 3 - 1 (2)Conner 8 - 2 3 - 1 (3)Cooper 9 - 1 3 - 1 (4)Scott 5 - 5 1 - 3 Grant County 3 - 7 0 - 4 Football Tie Breaker Conner Covington Catholic 7 Campbell County 6 Scott 5 Grant County 3 Top 4 Subtotal: 21 Ryle 3 Holy Cross (Covington) 3 Boone County 1 Total: 28 Cooper Holmes 6 Campbell County 6 Scott 5 Grant County 3 Top 4 Subtotal: 20 Dixie Heights 3 Holy Cross (Covington) 3 Ryle 3 Boone County 1 Total: 30 South Oldham North Oldham 6 Bullitt Central 6 North Bullitt 5 Scott 5 Top 4 Subtotal: 22 Oldham County 4 Grant County 3 Total: 29 Two of the three had near identical schedules. However, South Oldham (the team with the overall worst record of the tiebreaker trio) was BETTER off beating North Oldham, Bullitt Central and North Bullitt. All three counted Scott, but South Oldham was able to trade Grant (3 wins) for North Oldham (6) or Bullitt Central (6), which pushed South Oldham over the top. So like I said, if a 7-3 team is near a 9-1 team in a tiebreaker, it's because a 7-3 team has a better win (or two, in South Oldham's case) than the 9-1 team. In South Oldham's case, only 29 percent of the teams it beat finished with FEWER than four wins. In Cooper's case, 55 percent (nearly double) of the teams it beat finished with fewer than four wins. While Cooper had the better record, South Oldham had the better schedule. As far as district-only tiebreakers, teams with overmatched opponents in their final district games are better off than teams who played them earlier. If A beat C 48-6, B knows it can beat C 55-0 and surpass A in the tiebreaker. Then you're encouraging leaving in your offensive starters to run up the score and leave in your defensive starters to keep the shutout intact. And is there that much of a difference between a 48-6 win on the road and a 55-0 win at home? They're BOTH running clocks (both blowouts by anyone's definition). But you think that should determine the seed? Really? You don't see any issue with that?
  2. Counties (27) which extend further north than Fayette: Bath , Boone, Bourbon, Boyd, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Carter, Elliott, Franklin, Gallatin, Grant, Greenup, Harrison, Henry, Jefferson, Kenton, Lawrence, Lewis, Oldham, Owen, Pendleton, Robertson, Rowan, Scott, Shelby, Trimble That means 77.4 percent of the state (in terms of numbers of counties) is further south ... than the extreme northernmost tip of Fayette County (and Lexington is NOT located in the extreme northernmost tip of Fayette County). HOWEVER, in terms of population, 75 percent of the state is NOT south of Lexington. No where close. Maybe 60 if we're lucky, but not 75. Plus, as we pointed out, Louisville is NORTH of Lexington (a metro in its own right). So if we're using ONLY GEOGRAPHY (as you wish) ... if Lexington is NKY ... then Louisville IS too (because, you know, Louisville is FURTHER NORTH). You'd also have to include Morehead and Mt. Sterling, Frankfort, Georgetown, Shelbyville and Paris (six other cities which do no consider themselves north at all). So you're including Owensboro in CKY "because it says so" and now forcing Frankfort-Georgetown-Morehead-Mt. Sterling-Paris-Shelbyville to the north (even though NONE of them considers themselves to be north). You're plucking Louisville (and Owensboro, who nobody besides you thinks is CKY) out just for the sake of it (but ignoring YOUR OWN geography argument). And when we pointed out Lexington is CLOSER to the geographic CENTER (and therefore, Central Kentucky) of Kentucky than three places you claimed were CKY (Owensboro, BG, Russellville), you ONCE AGAIN disowned/ignored your OWN geographic argument. Pick and choose at your own will (or peril), I suppose.
  3. Yup. I already pointed out where Central Kentucky actually is (Lebanon/Marion County). There is a geographical marker (placed by the STATE, no less) that calls Campbellsville University the center. And some say E'town because of the hub of roads. EITHER way, Lexington is way way way way closer to Central Kentucky than Bowling Green, Owensboro or Russellville (three cities Tiger was claiming were actually Central Kentucky). If someone wants to lump LOU-LEX-NKY together -- the Golden Triangle -- and then break it up (West, Central and East), sure, that could work. But to say Owensboro IS CKY and Lexington is NOT (because Lex is actually NKY, even though plenty of places are closer to the state's northern border -- the river -- than Lexington) is beyond crazy.
  4. 1) Hardin County-based Boundary Oak Distillery owns the name "Kentucky Moonshine" through registered trademark.Surprisingly, got it a few years ago because no one had thought to trademark it. Boundary Oak wants to create bourbon (amber, for starters) primarily, but realized moonshine -- and its newly trademarked name -- could be lucrative. 2) It's about the name, but it's ALSO about being on a T-shirt. I don't think UK's lawyers are telling "Kentucky Mist" to change its name, only that "Kentucky Mist" can NOT sell shirts with Kentucky on it. if Kentucky Mist Moonshine went by "K.M.M.", I'm NOT sure this an issue. 3) All that being said, UK didn't exactly come off looking swell in all this. Even its own fans on Cats Illustrated are raking UK over the coals on this one (basically for taking it to a small in-state business and not some out-of-state or out-of-country corporation trying to make an easy/lazy buck).
  5. I ADMIT I cost keepers save sometimes. However, in the situation above, I think it is LESS about positioning and MORE about a striker taking a horrible shot. Too many times I've seen someone in a shootout try to go in the middle -- and then the keeper might have to take one step -- because the striker does NOT want to try for the corner because he/she is afraid of going wide left or wide right. But a ball shot from 40 that MIGHT have bounced in (if it had enough momentum) if the keeper didn't finally catch it I do have a hard time giving a save for. For me, it's one of those things that you'll know it when you see it. Or like you said above, it's about "quality" opportunities.
  6. There is NO daily paper with AP credentials in NKY. The papers with AP coverage that cover NKY are based in Ohio and not KY.
  7. Save PERCENTAGE is better: Saves divided by Saves + Goals Allowed But it still comes back to people not having a set standard for saves. Coming out to break up a 2-on-1 (intercept the pass) is NOT a save. Punching out a corner kick or jumping to catch it is NOT a save (unless the player taking the corner kick MEANT to bend it in without anyone touching it). Catching a ball coming right at you with little effort is NOT a save (because theoretically a defender staying on the line could deflect it, since the GK barely moved). Catching an INdirect kick (ball kicked directly after foul with no one else tapping it) is NOT a save (because GK could have watched the ball fly into the net and it would NOT have counted because it was INdirect). I'll routinely have a GK listed with like 5 or so saves and the team (plus the parents) will have the GK with like 10-15. I tell them if your GK ACTUALLY has that many saves, why are you whining to ME and NOT the defense that is feeding you to the wolves? Tons and tons of saves are NOT good things. A lot of times, I won't even mention GK totals in stories because I think they're useless (like digs in volleyball; another stat people throw out there without knowing the boundaries of the stat). I'll mention important saves (breakaways, PKs, etc.) or what the keeper did (saved 6-of-8 shots on frame) but simply mentioning total saves in general does NOT mean anything. The Fort Knox goalkeeper could have 18 saves (and often does) against one of the Hardins, but if you still get beat 10-0 (the maximum after halftime), does it REALLY matter how many saves you have? In that case, you could have had 0 saves and the score would have roughly been the same.
  8. 2015 Football District Standings | Kentucky High School Athletic Association Fulton County is the worst team in 1-A Districts 1-4 (West). Beechwood is the best team in 1-A Districts 1-4 (West). You could argue Russellville is, but since Fulton is in the same district, we REFUSE to have district teams knock each other out right off the bat, so Russellville is ineligible. Why should Fulton have go past Bardstown (Bethlehem, where it was already scheduled to get pasted) and have to go to Northern KY? https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Beechwood+High+School,+Beechwood+Road,+Fort+Mitchell,+KY/Fulton+County+High+School,+2740+Moscow+Avenue,+Hickman,+KY+42050/@37.7680695,-89.0677411,7z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m14!4m13!1m5!1m1!1s0x8841b772d3bb407b:0x19af46ae187187ea!2m2!1d-84.5551631!2d39.0489216!1m5!1m1!1s0x88790a33ce20365f:0x9a0038cfa16de12d!2m2!1d-89.1583176!2d36.5679497!3e0 Fulton-Beechwood is 5 hours (more than 350 miles) ONE WAY. And if you're gonna seed West/East, districts are going out the window (since they'll mean jack). If you keep the districts, it's going to be hard to seed it correctly (using CalPreps or Lit or Cantrall or whatever) and avoid first-round district matchups. Bottom line if the NCAA Tournament can't guarantee 1 vs. 2 (and those people are paid and spend WEEKS working on ONLY that), why in the world do we think the KHSAA could set up SIX seeded tourneys somewhat correctly (with far less data at their disposal)? Seeding everyone in football would be a nightmare. Wrestling and tennis are different since they're all at the same place. Reseeding after regions won't happen (although actually the only likely time for it to happen since school is out that Friday and travel time is not a concern).
  9. http://khsaa.org/handbook/competitionrules/fbcompetitionrules.pdf Page 2 Right Column C-3-ii "ii) If the tie remains, each team tied for the position shall receive one point for each game won by any four of their defeated opponents in all games, except for the games played between any two of the tied teams. All games played shall be counted in applying the tie-breaking procedure, including out of state games, with the exception that a defeated school may be counted only once in the procedure regardless of the number of games played against that particular school. Teams awarded forfeit victories (whether or not a forfeit fee is paid) may count the defeated opponents of the forfeiting team, provided the game was not replaced on the schedule." In layman's terms: Teams in a tiebreaker CAN'T include wins over another team in the same tiebreaker. However, out-of-state wins DO count.
  10. Floyd COUNTS. Ahem ... http://khsaa.org/handbook/competitionrules/fbcompetitionrules.pdf Page 2 Right Column C-3-ii "ii) If the tie remains, each team tied for the position shall receive one point for each game won by any four of their defeated opponents in all games, except for the games played between any two of the tied teams. All games played shall be counted in applying the tie-breaking procedure, including out of state games, with the exception that a defeated school may be counted only once in the procedure regardless of the number of games played against that particular school. Teams awarded forfeit victories (whether or not a forfeit fee is paid) may count the defeated opponents of the forfeiting team, provided the game was not replaced on the schedule." And here's last year's tiebreaker: http://khsaa.org/football/2014/threewaytiebreakertodate.pdf Louisville Holy Cross counted Providence (Indiana)'s seven wins and Boyd County counted South Point (Ohio)'s two wins.
  11. KNOTT (5): East Ridge (3), South Floyd (2), Betsy Layne (0) MORGAN (5): Allen Central (4), Jackson County (1), Betsy Layne (0) MAGOFFIN (0): Betsy Layne (0). Still to play: Knott vs. Allen Central (4-4) Magoffin vs. West Carter (6-2) Morgan vs. Sheldon Clark (2-6) Magoffin has to stun West Carter to have any shot. Knott beating Allen Central would cancel out Morgan's best win, dooming Morgan. Morgan beating Sheldon Clark AND Allen Central beating Knott might be enough to push Morgan by Knott.
  12. MANUAL WINS (24) Fern Creek (8) Central (6) Ballard (5) PRP (5) Others: Western (3), Butler (2), Seneca (0) To Play: Eastern (4) MALE WINS (22) Trinity (8) Ballard (5) PRP (5) Fairdale (4) Others: Floyd Central (4), Butler (2) Seneca (0) To Play: Western (3) ST. X WINS (19) Bowling Green (7) PRP (5) Henry Clay (4) Highlands (3) To Play: Cincy St. X (5), Butler (2) All three schools are counting PRP, so it cancels out. And Ballard cancels out for Manual/Male. Ballard upsetting Trinity (not likely) would help Manual more than it does Male because BOTH teams include Ballard. Male's gonna get a point regardless (because it beat both Trinity and Ballard), but Male doesn't need Manual to "go even" with it in the Ballard-Trinity game.
  13. Danville is closer to Lebanon (geographic center) than E'town is. Danville's also closer to Lexington than E'town is. And Lexington is much much much closer to Lebanon than Bowling Green, Russellville or Owensboro. Geographic Center of Kentucky The geographic center of Kentucky, according to old Kentucky Transportation Cabinet road maps, is in Marion county about three miles northwest of Lebanon on KY 429. So Lebanon is "Central Kentucky". Distance (Mileage) from Lebanon: Danville: 32 Elizabethtown: 49.3 Frankfort: 61.2 Lexington: 63.7 Bowling Green: 99.7 Russellville: 126 Owensboro: 141 Kentucky Distance Calculator, Driving Directions, Distance Between Cities, Distance Chart (US)
  14. Just wanted to revisit this, Tiger. The ONLY Louisville vote was the C-J. Others were including E'town (which borders Jefferson County) in Louisville metro. Considering BG, Owensboro and Russellville as "Central" Kentucky is crazy. They're Central time zone (while E'town is Eastern, just like Louisville and Shepherdsville). Bowling Green and Russellville could be southern Kentucky if you wish (along with Hoptown or Madisonville or Somerset), but they are NOT Central Kentucky. The geographic center of Kentucky is Lebanon (Marion County). Some people say E'town because of all the roads that intersect (BG Parkway, WK Parkway, I-65, 31-W, Lincoln Parkway). But BG, Owensboro and Russellville are NO WHERE CLOSE to Central Kentucky. You're talking two hours away AT BEST. There's plenty of "Central Kentucky" this or that in the Danville-Harrodsburg-Frankfort-Versailles-Georgetown-Lexington area. NONE in BG/Owensboro/Russellville. And Frankfort and Lexington as "North"? Yikes. Ashland as North? I know of NO business in Ashland (or the immediate area) that includes Northern Kentucky in its name. You're forcing square pegs in round holes all in the name of balance (which will never be achieved until AP/Associated Press outlets return to NKY). Plus, there's a lot more AP voters who do NOT vote (some people will vote in the basketball polls but not the football polls).
  15. KHSAA has NOT updated board of control minutes from Tuesday's meeting. I'm assuming that's gonna be in there. That being said: 2015 Football District Standings | Kentucky High School Athletic Association Class 1A, District 5 Overall District (1)Paris 9 - 0 4 - 0 Bishop Brossart 7 - 1 2 - 1 Nicholas County 4 - 4 1 - 2 Bracken County 3 - 6 1 - 2 Berea 0 - 8 0 - 3 Class 1A, District 6 Overall District Paintsville 8 - 0 1 - 0 Fairview 5 - 4 1 - 1 Raceland 5 - 3 0 - 1 Class 1A, District 7 Overall District Harlan 7 - 1 2 - 0 Pineville 5 - 3 1 - 1 Williamsburg 2 - 5 1 - 1 Lynn Camp 4 - 5 0 - 2 Class 1A, District 8 Overall District Pikeville 6 - 2 2 - 0 Hazard 7 - 2 2 - 1 South Floyd 2 - 6 1 - 2 Jenkins 1 - 7 0 - 2 Teams not eligible for district title- McCreary Central 2 - 6 0 - 0 Phelps 0 - 8 0 - 0
  16. 1) If you're 9-1 and finished THIRD (or second, but still) in a three-way tiebreaker involving a 6-4 teams and a 7-3 team ... then your 9-1 record was filled with cupcakes. Pretty good chance in that scenario that the 6-4 and 7-3 team would NOT be that far in the computer ratings (which use strength of schedule) behind the 9-1 team (if at all). 2) As ATL pointed out, you do NOT want to "encourage" running clocks in late district games (meaning a team going for a district title shows no mercy against an inferior cellar dwellar). 3) If you use "points for/points scored" as a tiebreaker, you're encouraging teams to trade points -- i.e. allow them to score -- just to get the ball back and run up the total. In that case, a 70-56 win is more valuable than a 45-0 win. 4) You could use points allowed in district, but then again, you're encouraging teams to leave in their starters -- even up 28-0, 35-0, 42-0 -- late in the game just to keep the shutout intact. Really, should the JV or freshman giving up a fourth-quarter touchdown determine a seed? No. There are so many flaws with doing it by "district only". Plus, what if the 9-1 team STILL finished third behind the 6-4 and 7-3 team in a "district only" tiebreaker (because the 6-4 and 7-3 teams HAMMERED the other district teams, while 9-1 squeaked by)? That IS a possibility, you know.
  17. Because they are like assists in basketball (which are not listed on KHSAA, either). Different people give saves different ways. I was taught this more than a decade ago: If you're giving a keeper a save, he/she better leave his/her feet (or be on tiptoes with arms outstretched). Another coach used this philosophy: If a defender could have kept the ball out of the goal, then no save (because defenders deflect shots -- which could/might have been on frame -- all the time). By many accounts, though, if a keeper his hitting double-digit saves, than the defense needs some work. Plus, you have this: Teams which get mercy ruled SHOULD lead the state in saves, because those teams give up a TON of shots on goal. GKs from Trinity and SHA and St. X and Assumption should have FEWER saves than PRP, Eastern, etc., because those defenses (T, X, SHA,Assumption) are NOT going to get shot on as much as PRP and Eastern.
  18. Louisville is further north than Lexington. Lexington is East and SOUTH of Louisville. NO ONE is calling Louisville "Northern Kentucky"
  19. For the MOST part, I agree with you. But here's the thing: Adair is Central time. The entire county (even its far western point) is entirely east of Elizabethtown/Hardin County (and its far eastern point). The WKY parkway starts in E'town. I'm NOT advocating E'town/Hardin as a WKY county at all, just saying. Then you have Meade (the ONLY eastern time zone school in the 3rd Region). Adair is like an hour EAST of Meade, but using the central time zone as the barrier, Adair would be considered west but NOT Meade (when Adair is further east by far).
  20. Baker and Daniel are having great offensive seasons, no doubt. Baker's overall offensive numbers are better -- IMHO -- but Daniel is a two-way star-/threat (not that Baker isn't, since Baker's stats show an INT return for a TD). The point I was TRYING to make is that BOTH players are in the conversation because they also play defense (Daniel at a very high level on defense, but Baker is pretty darn good, too). Robbins also plays defense (CB? S? FS?) and had a key interception or breakup against Central Hardin, IIRC.
  21. UNLESS you are counting returns (punts/kicks/INTS/fumbles), Elizabethtown outgained Adair according to three sources (Elizabethtown News-Enterprise daily paper which covers eight schools, Elizabethtown's KHSAA stat page and Adair's KHSAA stat page that Adair inputs/enters) ... and NONE of them had Adair with 450 yards or more.
  22. Not sure. I THINK if an odd district team advances to the region final, then the odd district hosts the region final. However, if the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds from District 2, District 4, District 6 or District 8 both advance to the region final (round 3), then obviously a District 1, District 3, District 5 or District 7 team will NOT be hosting (when it was their year to host). I also have to check to see if an odd district hosts region final (round 3) NO MATTER the seed (say the 4 seed gets some upsets) or only if it is the higher seed (1 hosting 2) or equal seed (odd 1 would host even 1). That part I'm unsure of and will have to google.
  23. Louisville Central is District 3 and since they are in an odd (3) district in an odd year (15), they host in first 3 rounds as the top seed, correct? So if so, Central's playoffs looks like this: Round 1: Home against Western Hills Round 2: Home against Boyle Round 3: Home against LexCath Round 4: ROAD vs. Caldwell/PT/E'town Round 5: Neutral vs. Belfry That's one true road game out of five. Not sure the traveling (especially since Louisville Central is quite used to going to Bowling Green). Now it is a tough "road" as far as ranked/capable opponents, sure. But only Belfry (expected to win out and stay at home) and Caldwell (would be at home in first four rounds) have more home playoff games than Central (three) would have. Actually Belfry could be on the road in Round 3 against the top-seeded team from District 5 (West Carter or Russell), but that means West Carter or Russell knock off Lawrence County in Round 2. If Lawrence wins in Round 2, that means Lawrence goes to Belfry (instead of Belfry going to West Carter or Russell) and Belfry stays at home until the state final. I think.
  24. Funny thing: Belfry (836) beating Lawrence (4009) as little as it did HELPED it in the computer polls more than E'town winning at Adair (ranked 5016) or Caldwell (1403) beating Fort Campbell (9157). Lawrence is ninth in 3-A by CalPreps/MaxPreps, FWIW. Not exactly a scrub.
  25. Central Hardin was held to no touchdowns by South Warren, one TD by Bowling Green and one offensive TD by Boyle. Paducah Tilghman let Central Hardin go off for the Bruins' HIGHEST-SCORING game of the season (and Central Hardin played a down Meade County team and a down Bullitt East squad). Outside of the McCracken game (which McCracken had several things go wrong), EVERY time Paducah Tilghman plays a halfway decent team, it gets gashed defensively. Who would you say is Tilghman's best defensive performance of the year (Outside of the season opener, that is. If McCracken is PT's defensive highlight of the season, that ain't saying much). And if the defensive highlight came against Madisonville (3-6, shut out by Owensboro), Trigg (2-7, hasn't broken 15 points in four straight games) or Union (5-3, held below 20 points in half its games), then defense isn't exactly a strong suit. Talking to Central Hardin folks, Paducah Tilghman's main offense was the PT quarterback running around and his WRs/TEs/RBs making up their own routes backyard-football style. Maybe PT has righted the ship since then, but even North Hardin -- NOT known for its defense at all -- gave up similar numbers to Caldwell as PT did (and North Hardin had a 3-hour bus ride after school).
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