Nathaniel Bryan

Bardstown won't be third if Waggener beats Valley. http://khsaa.org/handbook/competitionrules/fbcompetitionrules.pdf Page 2, Column 2 (right), part iv: "If the tie for the position involves only three teams, and the application of (ii) and (iii) results in one team being declared the winner of the tied position based on point totals, the highest point total from the application of (ii) and (iii) between the two remaining tied teams shall be declared to hold the next position." So Bardstown's head-to-head win over Waggener does NOT apply. HENRY COUNTY WINS - Walton-Verona (5-4) - Owen County (4-4) - Carroll County (3-5) - Moore (3-6) - Also beat Thomas Nelson (1-7) and Lincoln County (1-7) - Has Spencer County (8-1) left BARDSTOWN WINS - Nelson County (3-6) - Moore (3-6) - Bardstown would also get 1 point for beating 1-7 Thomas Nelson - Marion County (0-8) - Has Allen-County Scottsville (4-5) left WAGGENER WINS - Moore (3-6) - Atherton (2-7) - Thomas Nelson (1-7) - Shawnee (0-7) - Henry does NOT count since it is involved in the tiebreaker - Has Valley (5-3) left, but Valley will beat Breck this week to get to 6-3 Henry County already has the 2 locked up with 15 points. Even if all four of Bardstown's teams went 8-0 the next two week (2 wins per team, four teams) Henry would still win because 8+6=14 (one less than Henry ALREADY has) AND Henry is counting Moore (just like Bardstown, so what Moore does helps BOTH but essentially cancels out). Even if Bardstown beats AC-S and Henry County loses to Moore, it won't be enough. In this scenario, Moore's not getting to 4-6 (because it must lose to Waggener to make the three-way tiebreaker happen). Both Bardstown and Waggener would be including Thomas Nelson, so that cancels out. Shawnee being 0-7 instead of 1-7 hurts Waggener. Shawnee has DeSales (won't win) and Fort Knox left (might win). Atherton has Fern Creek left (won't win). Thomas Nelson has Taylor left (might win, but doubt it). Marion County is winless, but has Taylor and Washington left. To sum it up, Henry is the 2. Waggener likely the 3 (if it beats Valley) even though Bardstown currently leads Waggener in tiebreaker. Bardstown needs to beat AC-S or have Waggener lose to Valley to get the 3.

E'town's known for a lot of things ... but a hole-opening massive/strong/experienced/efficient offensive line is NOT one of those. E'town's O-line is one of its WEAKEST units. E'town runs a clean offense, meaning carriers and blockers get to the right spots at the right time without making penalties. But E'town is not going to overpower many teams in the offensive trenches. E'town is having a great season, but the Panthers ARE NOT loaded with All-Area offensive linemen who create gaping holes. Nope. I think you confuse E'town with Central Hardin's offensive line. Those guys are good.

E'town does play a lot of kids both ways, but there are a few notable -- i.e. Cecil -- that don't play a whole lot of defense. Adair's problem NOW is the kids you want to play both ways ... are NOT used to going both ways. The creates concerns about chemistry, fatigue, coachability. I'm sure many of their offensive studs have played defense before. However, are you going to be able to function at a high level when you're tired or sore or banged up from playing defense? And it also creates the concern about staying healthy. If a QB or a RB gets hurt playing defense, prepare for an onslaught of 20/20 guessers. E'town's decided that that's a risk worth taking. Plus, with all the bizarre and unusual and sheer number of injuries E'town dealt with in 2013 and 2014, Panther fans are thinking there's NO WAY it's going to happen again (especially this late in the season). Knock on wood, but E'town's been relatively healthy this year (Sullivan excluded of course, but we knew that going into the season).

This year's roster lists 51 players -- including 9 freshmen. Entering the Thomas Nelson game, 30 players had played between 5-7 games, 12 players had played between 1-4 games. Apparently 9 players had yet to see varsity action (which is GOOD for them in case they want to transfer next year). With the exception of Brents (a star), the other top rushing options (Bryant, Burrus, Grady) PLAYED last year and ARE PLAYING this year. Tanner McCoy, the main quarterback, saw action last year as a freshman. Of the 8 receivers who had a reception entering Thomas Nelson, 6-of-8 (75 percent) were on last year's team. One of the two that wasn't, of course, is Brents. Of the 8 players who had scored a point, 6 were on last year's team. Three of the four players who have interceptions played last year. The other, of course, is Brents. More than 20 guys who have multiple tackles played last year. I'm NOT from Waggener at all. However, the numbers say many players who played last year ... are having an impact THIS year. I'm not how many, IF ANY, kids who were "impact" players last year are riding the pine this year.

I'll pick up some other regions ASSUMING coaches will answer and respond to my emails.

I'm in for the 5th Region. Been covering it since 2000.

That's what I'm doing. I have no definitive prove why the computer spits out what it does/did ... I'm trying to use the data available to find a solution.

Thanks for the rational response. Seriously. Like I said, I have no dog in this fight. Can't remember the last time I saw a NKY team play. It sticks out because I THINK -- don't know for sure -- that points scored somehow has a factor/multiplier attached to it. I was looking through the numbers and trying to figure out why Ryle was ahead of Cooper. The points against common opponents would partially explain it, no?

E'town would have to beat Paducah Tilghman at home and win at Caldwell County the following week (and still has to get by a decent Adair County squad to avoid Round 2 at Caldwell and then round 3 at Adair/PT). Central Hardin, finally healthy, would have to win at McCracken in round 3 (and we all know who looms in Round 4). I think John Hardin stands the best shot.

psychic, You think Louisville Central deserves to be ranked higher than X? Knox Central higher than Louisville Central? If that's the case, Knox Central should be ahead of Louisville Central (because Knox beat Louisville) and Central should be ahead of X (because Central beat X). Because you are looking at entire state -- with plenty more results, scores at play -- you CANNOT say in a list of 200 teams or so, "A must be ahead of B" because "A beat B" while COMPLETELY IGNORING everything else at hand. I don't care if Ryle wins the rematch (if there is one) or if Cooper has a long postseason run. I'll sleep fine either way. But computer goes on way more than just solely head to head.

Let's try this: calpreps.com (CalPreps and MaxPreps are pretty much identical in rankings, although you do NOT have to log-in to CalPreps to see rankings all on one page. MaxPreps forces you to log-in and then click multiple pages): WKY (Bowling Green/Henderson/Mayfield/Murray/Owensboro/Paducah) 06. Bowling Green 08. South Warren 10. Owensboro 17. McCracken County 20. Mayfield 21. Caldwell County 29. Christian County 36. Hopkinsville 44. Paducah Tilghman 45. Owensboro Catholic 50. Greenwood 56. Daviess County 61. Adair County (central time zone; No good region/bracket for Adair to be in) 62. Murray 64. Warren Central 68. Henderson County (last team overall in) LOU (Teams in Hardin, Jefferson, Oldham, Shelby or Spencer County) 01. Male 02. Trinity 04. St. Xavier 14. DuPont Manual 18. Pleasure Ridge Park 22. Spencer County 23. Christian Academy-Louisville 24. Central Hardin 26. Fern Creek 27. DeSales 28. Elizabethtown 32. Louisville Central 35. Shelby County 46. John Hardin 51. South Oldham 55. Ballard GTE: Golden Triangle East (Lexington/Northern Kentucky) 03. Simon Kenton 05. Scott County 09. Bryan Station 12. Cooper 13. Lafayette 16. Ryle 31. Conner 34. Lexington Catholic 37. Beechwood 38. Henry Clay 41. Franklin County 42. Tates Creek 43. Scott High (Covington) 52. Covington Catholic 54. Highlands 57. Paul Dunbar EKY (Boyle, Garrard, Madison County Plus All Points East) 07. Boyle County 11. Belfry 15. Ashland Blazer 19. Pulaski County 25. Johnson Central 30. Paintsville 33. Danville 39. Bell County 40. Southwestern 47. North Laurel 48. Raceland 49. Pikeville 53. Madison Central 60. Russell High 63. Garrard County 67. Lawrence County SNUBBED SIX (Missed Out Due To Region Being Full) 58. Collins (LOU 17) 59. Anderson County (GTE 17) 65. Newport Central Catholic (GTE 18) 66. North Hardin (LOU 18) 69. Franklin-Simpson (WKY 17) 70. West Carter (East 17)

The thing with Louisville Central is they can milk the clock on you (pound the rock). They don't mind 10-20 play drives (although they DO have big-play ability). And if they get up on you, their defense is good enough to force you to nickel-and-dime them. Nickel-and-dime is NOT Caldwell's mode of operation. To put it in baseball terms: You CAN'T hit home runs against Central's and Boyle's defense. You have to hope to get on base and play small ball and work your way around the bases. Sacrifice, hit-and-run, bunt, suicide, squeeze, whatever. Caldwell swings for the fences. Which works great against many people. Not against Cy Young defenses, though.

To a computer, YES, that's exactly what it means. If Team A is better than Team B, than Team A should be beat teams worse -- and score more -- against the same teams Team B played. I do NOT fault coaches for pulling starters, playing JV more, stop blitzing and stop doing trick plays or throwing deep. That being said, if that costs you a few points one way or another, the computer's going to notice. Like Jason said earlier: Louisville Central beat X heads up. Where should Central be ranked and where should X be ranked? (Plus, Knox Central beat Louisville Central. Is Knox Central a top-25, top-15 team now SOLELY because of that one win ... and no other factors/stats/numbers taken into account)?

DEFENSE North Hardin scored FEWER points against each of its next five opponents than what Caldwell allowed. Four teams held Henderson to fewer points. Three teams held Tilghman to fewer. PT shut Trigg out (even if it was a meaningless score CC allowed). CLASS 3-A STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (BY MAXPREPS/CALPREPS) 01. Belfry, 23.2 02. Lexington Catholic, 21.0 03. Boyle, 19.0 04. Paducah Tilghman, 18.6 05. Garrard County, 14.2 06. Louisville Central, 13.3 07. Caldwell, 10.4 UNDERRATED? CalPreps/MaxpPreps had Caldwell THIRD, behind No. 1 Boyle and No. 2 Belfry. HUNGRY Other teams who didn't advance as far as they wanted to last year WON'T be hungry? FAN BASE Because Boyle and Belfry fans don't travel.

1) Spencer County (considered Louisville metro) and Scott County (considered Lexington metro) should be flipped. While those two schools are in different brackets from schools they are in districts/regions with is beyond me. 2) Although you got rid of classes, you did NOT get rid of the issue at play: If Male and Trinity are the best two teams, why CAN'T they face off in the final (in this case, they would play in the quarters).

14 is barely. You outscore a team by one touchdown each quarter and you win by 24-32. Decrease that to just outscoring your opponent by one TD per half and it's 6-16. 14 with 8 seconds left, and letting them score, is barely. I've seen teams score twice in the final minute and get the 2-point conversion both times (which would have given Ryle a win outright, let alone overtime). Computer ratings don't care how much you LED by, only the FINAL score/difference (or else Georgia wouldn't be hurt that much for losing to Tennessee). And like Jason Frakes said, head-to-head means little when it comes to rankings. - Paducah Tilghman is NOT ahead of McCracken in any computer ranking (although PT beat MC) - Central is not ahead of St. X (Central not in top 10 in any computer ranking, X in top 10 in all of them) - Knox Central is NOT ahead of Louisville Central (although Knox beat Central) In theory, the head-to-head game works (except when losses happen to lower-ranked teams). In the Ryle-Cooper case, there are other factors at play (One team scoring more against common opponents, one team faring better in losses, the head-to-head loss coming on the road instead of at home, one team playing winless teams earlier, etc.).

FWIW, Cooper has also played one of those winless teams (Campbell) that Ryle played and is about to play a second (Boone). Playing Boone will severely hurt Cooper's strength of schedule, while it will barely hurt Ryle (since Boone is already included for Ryle). This is the info by MaxPreps/CalPreps (same exact numbers) for Ryle and Cooper: COOPER WINS #1196 Ryle (Union, KY) (27-21), #2289 Lexington Catholic (Lexington, KY) (28-0), #3381 Highlands (Fort Thomas, KY) (37-13), #4366 Newport Central Catholic (Newport, KY) (35-0), #7530 Dixie Heights (Edgewood, KY) (35-7), #8439 Campbell County (Alexandria, KY) (35-7), RYLE WINS #2289 Lexington Catholic (Lexington, KY) (31-24), #3244 Covington Catholic (Park Hills, KY) (35-28), #3381 Highlands (Fort Thomas, KY) (48-24), #8420 Boone County (Florence, KY) (52-7), #8439 Campbell County (Alexandria, KY) (52-7), #8531 Clark [George Rogers] (Winchester, KY) (49-10) COOPER LOSSES #162 Kenton [simon] (Independence, KY) (26-7), #605 Bryan Station (Lexington, KY) (36-0) RYLE LOSSES #793 Cooper (Burlington, KY) (27-21) What sticks out to me is Ryle scored more points against every common opponent: LexCath (31 Ryle, 28 Cooper), Highlands (48-37) and Campbell (52-35). Ryle was also competitive in its one loss (point differential of 6) while Cooper wasn't in either loss (differential of 19 and 36). I have no dog in this fight. Just telling you what the numbers see. You can't make head-to-head as the SOLE decider, because that negates styles, matchups, weather, injuries, etc. Just because Team A can shut down Team B's passing attack one week does NOT mean Team A will be able to beat Team C (which may be WORSE than Team B, but have a running attack that Team A struggles to stop). Cooper barely beat Ryle at home. However, NEITHER team is perfect on the road. Flip the script and we could have been talking about Ryle beating Cooper (since BOTH teams are perfect at home, but flipping the game would mean Ryle playing at home against Cooper instead of Ryle being on the road).

There are three computer rankings: Lit (CJ), Cantrall (LHL) and MaxPreps/CalPreps (SAME RANKING if you check, even down to the tenth of a percent being the same and the strength of schedule being exactly the same). That being said, the same five schools (Male 1-1-1, Trinity 2-2-2, SK 3-4-3, Scott Co 4-3-5 and St. X 5-5-4) are in the top five of each ranking/rating. Bryan Station, Boyle and BG are also top-10 teams according to all three. So that's 8/10 consensus. DuPont Manul, Ryle, and South Warren are in the 8-17 range of all three. Cooper, Pulaski, Owensboro and Lafayette are in the 10-19 range of all three. So that's 15/20 teams that are ranked out of every poll. Not too many errors. TOP 20 IN 3-OF-3 COMPUTER POLLS 01. Male, 60 02. Trinity, 57 03. Simon Kenton, 53 04. Scott County, 51 05. St. Xavier, 49 06. Boyle County, 42 07. Bowling Green, 41 08. Bryan Station, 39 09. South Warren, 32 10. Cooper, 30 11. Ryle, 28 12. DuPont Manual, 24 13. Owensboro, 22 14. Lafayette, 19 15. Pulaski County, 14 ---------------------- TOP 20 IN 2-OF-3 COMPUTER POLLS 16. Belfry, 13 17. McCracken County, 12 18. Johnson Central, 10 19. Mayfield, 7 ---------------------- TOP 20 IN 1-OF-3 COMPUTER POLLS 20. Covington Catholic, 9 21. Ashland Blazer, 6 22. Lexington Catholic, 5 23. PRP, 3 24. CAL, 2 25-TIE. Central Hardin and DeSales, 1 Only 26 programs appear in the top 20.

North Hardin beat Meade and will host a playoff game (as long as Meade doesn't stun Central Hardin).

North Oldham is NOT 6-A. They could miss the playoffs since they're in a 5-team district without "crossover" -- which allows the fifth-place team to become fourth place from another district. He said North Oldham should have been a good win. ... Now North Oldham might not make the playoffs. That's true.

Yup. And depending on when Christmas and New Years falls, there are several winter break basketball games played on the Sunday around both those holidays. 2014/15 Kentucky High School Boys Basketball Seneca (Unseld Classic) and Fairdale (King of the Bluegrass) both hosted games on Sunday, December 21. 2014/15 Kentucky High School Boys Basketball Ton of games on Sunday, December 28th this past season. 2014 Kentucky High School Fast Pitch Softball Lots of softball teams played Sunday, March 30, 2014. Like I said, the Sunday/Holiday rule is long overdue to be put out to pasture. We've been having district soccer games -- and even region soccer games -- on Sundays in the 17th District/5th Region for about 5 years now I think (and these are all public schools with the lone exception of Catholic Bardstown Bethlehem). And with the weather the way it was Memorial Day 2015, Softball and baseball tourneys for region should have played that Sunday (because you could still get in four games that day). The 3rd Region softball tournament became a cluster because they refused to play Sunday and then Monday was a complete washout. With school still in session, parents at work and a far region to drive across (as opposed to Louisville or NKY), it was impossible to get the four quarterfinals in on Tuesday or Wednesday all at the same site (assuming you only use one field). Hence the four-game baseball/softball region Memorial Monday schedule we've grown used to. People who are opposed to Sunday/Holiday games are going to have a hard time convincing me there's a better way to schedule it while avoiding Sundays/Holidays.

Except for WKU practicing for its bowl, I suppose. I guess they could push the finals back, but some basketball folks will be none too pleased. Shy of Louisville/Kentucky/Eastern hosting instead -- I seriously doubt it --- I'm not sure there is an A-plus contingency plan which will thrill the majority. I guess for WKU it's a "good" program to have, because the ONLY way it's an issue ... is if your program is playing for a title.

I can tolerate homerish calls. For those Louisville basketball fans, "Threeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Deeeeeeeeeeeeeeean" whenever Taquan made a shot, for example. Or "First Down ... Kentucky" when I went to CWS for football games. Commenting on officiating is a no-no, though.

Agreed, but if Boyle does NOT make it to the final (unless beaten by Central), it's an upset. Same thing for the other Eastern Kentucky region being fodder for Belfry. I'm sure there are some fine teams to the east, but if the Pirates aren't at WKU playing for the title, it's an upset.

If Boyle does NOT win Region 2, maybe. However, Boyle is ranked ahead -- sometimes, WAY ahead -- of Caldwell/E'town/PT in all six rankings (BGP human, AP human, CJ Lit computer, LHL Cantrall computer, CalPreps computer, MaxPreps computer).