November 26, 201114 yr So the tiebreaker scenarios become this: -Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia - Louisville wins by virtue of being 2-0 against the others. -Louisville, Rutgers, Cincinnati - Rutgers would be current winner. Each team 1-1 against other two, forcing it to BCS ranking, where currently Rutgers is highest. -Louisville, West Virginia, Cincinnati - West Virginia would be current winner. Each team 1-1 against other two, forcing it to BCS ranking, where currently West Virginia is highest. -Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia, Cincinnati - West Virginia would be current winner. Louisville and West Virginia are each 2-1 against other teams, forcing it to BCS ranking, where currently West Virginia is highest. So for Louisville, it boils down to this - If Cincinnati wins both of their remaining games they will not get the BCS nod. Obviously either would win head to head tiebreakers and as shown above the only 3 or 4 way tiebreaker Louisville can win is one that doesn't involve Cincinnati. Louisville has zero chance of catching any of the higher teams in the BCS rankings as it would take losses to force them down.
November 26, 201114 yr Author So the tiebreaker scenarios become this: -Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia - Louisville wins by virtue of being 2-0 against the others. -Louisville, Rutgers, Cincinnati - Rutgers would be current winner. Each team 1-1 against other two, forcing it to BCS ranking, where currently Rutgers is highest. -Louisville, West Virginia, Cincinnati - West Virginia would be current winner. Each team 1-1 against other two, forcing it to BCS ranking, where currently West Virginia is highest. -Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia, Cincinnati - West Virginia would be current winner. Louisville and West Virginia are each 2-1 against other teams, forcing it to BCS ranking, where currently West Virginia is highest. So for Louisville, it boils down to this - If Cincinnati wins both of their remaining games they will not get the BCS nod. Obviously either would win head to head tiebreakers and as shown above the only 3 or 4 way tiebreaker Louisville can win is one that doesn't involve Cincinnati. Louisville has zero chance of catching any of the higher teams in the BCS rankings as it would take losses to force them down. So under the red scenario, UC needs USF to beat WVU, next Thursday night, to guarentee them the BCS Bowl bid, if they, the Bearcats, win out. Among all of the other problems, the Bulls have never won on Thursday night. Just sayin'.
November 26, 201114 yr So under the red scenario, UC needs USF to beat WVU, next Thursday night, to guarentee them the BCS Bowl bid, if they, the Bearcats, win out. Among all of the other problems, the Bulls have never won on Thursday night. Just sayin'. Cincinnati would really like both West Virginia and Rutgers to lose if they could manage it. Absolutely no team involved controls their own destiny because they need some other team to win. I really would be stunned if either Rutgers or West Virginia lost. I think at this point it's either going to be Louisville (if Cincinnati loses) or West Virginia (if they have a 4 way tie) that represents the Big East.
November 26, 201114 yr I am literally begging for a UC loss tomorrow.....if that happens.....I'm on my way to South Beach.
November 26, 201114 yr ^ With injuries and such...I wonder. I would think Strong is now COY, and Bridgewater is certainly ROY....interesting.
November 26, 201114 yr A very good argument can be made for Strong as COY (would be second straight) because UL was picked to finish in 7th place in the league.
November 26, 201114 yr I am literally begging for a UC loss tomorrow.....if that happens.....I'm on my way to South Beach. I'm on stubhub right now. The probability is overwhelmingly in the favor of Louisville even if you consider both UC games to be a toss-up. Of 32 possible outcomes, 24 involve Louisville in the Orange Bowl. I'll take those odds.
November 26, 201114 yr I'm on stubhub right now. The probability is overwhelmingly in the favor of Louisville even if you consider both UC games to be a toss-up. Of 32 possible outcomes, 24 involve Louisville in the Orange Bowl. I'll take those odds. I'm not sure I follow that math, though I agree the odds for Louisville are pretty good at this point.
November 26, 201114 yr Author So the tiebreaker scenarios become this: -Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia - Louisville wins by virtue of being 2-0 against the others. -Louisville, Rutgers, Cincinnati - Rutgers would be current winner. Each team 1-1 against other two, forcing it to BCS ranking, where currently Rutgers is highest. -Louisville, West Virginia, Cincinnati - West Virginia would be current winner. Each team 1-1 against other two, forcing it to BCS ranking, where currently West Virginia is highest. -Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia, Cincinnati - West Virginia would be current winner. Louisville and West Virginia are each 2-1 against other teams, forcing it to BCS ranking, where currently West Virginia is highest. So for Louisville, it boils down to this - If Cincinnati wins both of their remaining games they will not get the BCS nod. Obviously either would win head to head tiebreakers and as shown above the only 3 or 4 way tiebreaker Louisville can win is one that doesn't involve Cincinnati. Louisville has zero chance of catching any of the higher teams in the BCS rankings as it would take losses to force them down. Unless UConn refuses to take the field in the 4th quarter and forfeits, the first two scenarios are out. UConn 40 Rutgers 10 starting the 4th.
November 26, 201114 yr I'm not sure I follow that math, though I agree the odds for Louisville are pretty good at this point.There are 5 Big East games left to be played, therefore 32 possible outcomes. Only 8 of those combinations result in a team other than Louisville going to the Oranges Bowl.
November 26, 201114 yr There are 5 Big East games left to be played, therefore 32 possible outcomes. Only 8 of those combinations result in a team other than Louisville going to the Oranges Bowl. Interesting. I may need to brush up on my statistics classes!
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