Since Jan 09 OPEC has taken 4.2 million barrels per day off the market to keep prices about $70. Just oil sitting around in the desert. It is said they could take off between 7 million to 10 million per day if they had too.

 

If they left the 4.2 million on the market gas prices would be around $1.75 right now but they DON'T want that.

 

SA has continued to say the "high prices" are funding new production and it will come on. Not too mention once Iraq is stable (which is exactly what SA DOES NOT WANT) because they have no quota to pump like the other OPEC countries, they are thought to have just as much oil is SA if not more.

 

Speculating is what drives prices up... SA even said that in their official report.

 

The above doesn't have any impact on the issues raised. Regardless of how many barrels someone has taken off the market there is still the combination of declining production/faster depletion/higher consumption/higher costs to come up with alternatives.

 

You're also not factoring in that OPEC countries do not have as much oil to export now because their own consumption is rising twice as fast as the rest of the world.

Note: I'm not talking about running out of oil. I'm talking about people saying that the costs to produce oil from, say , the tar sands in Canada is going to be very expensive which will result in higher gas prices.

Whats SA?

 

Saudi Arabia.

The above doesn't have any impact on the issues raised. Regardless of how many barrels someone has taken off the market there is still the combination of declining production/faster depletion/higher consumption/higher costs to come up with alternatives.

 

You're also not factoring in that OPEC countries do not have as much oil to export now because their own consumption is rising twice as fast as the rest of the world.

 

Nobody is denying the fact that demand has gone up. Well actually now is really slumping, that is why the excess oil is sitting around. But yes demand will go up whe the economies rebuild. But SA the leader of OPEC nation has said many times, new production will come on to meet demand. Iraq AKA (Alaska) is going to be producing between 2-5 million barrels per day alone in the next few years once things are fully stabilized over there.

 

But this is exactly what drives oil up, excessive speculation, we have cross bridges when we get to them.

Nobody is denying the fact that demand has gone up. Well actually now is really slumping, that is why the excess oil is sitting around. But yes demand will go up whe the economies rebuild. But SA the leader of OPEC nation has said many times, new production will come on to meet demand. Iraq AKA (Alaska) is going to be producing between 2-5 million barrels per day alone in the next few years once things are fully stabilized over there.

 

But this is exactly what drives oil up, excessive speculation, we have cross bridges when we get to them.

 

Here's the problem with Saudi Arabia. They are running out of water. I read that current water use is 7 times sustainable levels. Why is this related? They use oil in their desalination plants.

 

OPEC countries plus Mexico and Russia have oil demand that has been rising twice as fast as the rest of the world average. These are the places we're banking on to supply us. They will not be able to.

 

Iraq , according to experts, has been known to exaggerate how much supply they have considering they have not made any new discoveries of supply.

How long would these reserves last?

 

Your assumption about "cleaner" ways to come up with energy is absolutely correct. However, if you're assuming that those methods would result in low energy costs, you are mistaken.

 

I have forgotten the exact number, but I believe that if we relied on these reserves for all our uses it would be 30 years. Mixed with imports it would be long enough to come through with technical break-throughs for alternative sources of energy. It may not hold down costs, but gas would not go to $6-7 a gallon. Also it would be our oil that would allow us to better control our own destiny.

The new sources may at 1st be expensive, but as they are used more and more the price will come down. Just look at the history on the price of any new product.

Edited February 12, 201016 yr by bballfamily

$7 a gallon...not in the next 20 years. The socialist government of the United States knows what this would do to the economy and they will not let this happen. IMO

Back in the 1970's the author of the "Population Bomb" predicted that all commodities would skyrocket in price for the same reasons mentioned in this thread. As it turned out he was wrong on accounts. Prices since have gone up, some due to inflation, some to actual price increases, but nothing in comparsions to those 1970's predictions.

I have said this before, the 1st time they said we would run out of oil was in 1919 and about every 10 years the same prediction is made and proven wrong time after time.

Back in the 1970's the author of the "Population Bomb" predicted that all commodities would skyrocket in price for the same reasons mentioned in this thread. As it turned out he was wrong on accounts. Prices since have gone up, some due to inflation, some to actual price increases, but nothing in comparsions to those 1970's predictions.

I have said this before, the 1st time they said we would run out of oil was in 1919 and about every 10 years the same prediction is made and proven wrong time after time.

 

 

Let me restate what I've restated a few times. The question is not "will we run out of oil?" The Canadian sand tars have plenty of oil. However, its not clean and it will be very expensive to convert into usable energy. Iraq has oil and it is clean. However, stability in the region remains questionable at best. Even if we decided today to start pumping it will be years (10+) before we see even a decent supply.

 

So, AGAIN, what do we do in December or in 2011 when none of these supplies are available or available at an affordable price?

 

Your post is exactly what real experts said in 2000 when Jeff Rubin claimed that it would hit $50 per barrel (at a time when it averaged $20) in two to three years. It did. He then came back a few years later and claimed it would hit $100 per barrel and they thought he was "Chicken Little." He was right again.

 

So, bb, your generalization has little to do with this debate. You're arguing that the world will not run out of oil. That's not the debate. What you're ignoring is immediacy of the problem and you're assuming all oil is equal which is untrue.

$7 a gallon...not in the next 20 years. The socialist government of the United States knows what this would do to the economy and they will not let this happen. IMO

 

Could $7 have positive effects?

 

Think about how many jobs we've lost to places like China and why we lost them. Would those jobs coming back to the US be a good thing?

Could $7 have positive effects?

 

Think about how many jobs we've lost to places like China and why we lost them. Would those jobs coming back to the US be a good thing?

 

China is a power we might as well get use to it and deal with it. Is it your belief that its going to take $7 a gallon gas before the U.S. decides that we are gonna have to be self sufficient? One by drilling our own oil, which would be a shame if it took that to get the job done. Two we finally quit talking about it a do something along the lines of Natural gas or hydrogen?

 

I know the hybrid is popular out there right now, but that is not solving a problem. The cars are way to high for the money one saves in fuel.

China is a power we might as well get use to it and deal with it. Is it your belief that its going to take $7 a gallon gas before the U.S. decides that we are gonna have to be self sufficient? One by drilling our own oil, which would be a shame if it took that to get the job done. Two we finally quit talking about it a do something along the lines of Natural gas or hydrogen?

 

I know the hybrid is popular out there right now, but that is not solving a problem. The cars are way to high for the money one saves in fuel.

 

No, I'm not saying we drill our own oil. Heck, I have no idea if we have enough and what we do have is going to cost a lot to produce it.

 

I asked the question about high gas costs having positives for the country because some believe it would help manufacturing jobs come back to the country. The only reasons the jobs are overseas now are cheap labor and cheap oil to transport the goods. Once the cheap oil goes away the cheap labor costs aren't going to be worth the extra cost to ship the goods. So, we bring those jobs back to the country. Yes, gas would still be expensive but we'd have more people working at higher wages than they might get in the service industry.

No, I'm not saying we drill our own oil. Heck, I have no idea if we have enough and what we do have is going to cost a lot to produce it.

 

I asked the question about high gas costs having positives for the country because some believe it would help manufacturing jobs come back to the country. The only reasons the jobs are overseas now are cheap labor and cheap oil to transport the goods. Once the cheap oil goes away the cheap labor costs aren't going to be worth the extra cost to ship the goods. So, we bring those jobs back to the country. Yes, gas would still be expensive but we'd have more people working at higher wages than they might get in the service industry.

 

What do you define as cheap oil? It was $10-$30 dollars 10 years ago. I do not disagree that other countries are using more energy. Is it India who just made that $3,500 car? But my point is OPEC and SA have said they will meet the rising energy demands in the immediate future. Now 10-20 years from now who knows? When prices hike up now it is often when Iran or Venz decide to get mad at us and threaten to send what they have. I still believe we have to use nuclear energy like other countries do if we want to taper our oil addiction. Nuclear would really put a dent in our dependance on oil.

What do you define as cheap oil? It was $10-$30 dollars 10 years ago. I do not disagree that other countries are using more energy. Is it India who just made that $3,500 car? But my point is OPEC and SA have said they will meet the rising energy demands in the immediate future. Now 10-20 years from now who knows? When prices hike up now it is often when Iran or Venz decide to get mad at us and threaten to send what they have. I still believe we have to use nuclear energy like other countries do if we want to taper our oil addiction. Nuclear would really put a dent in our dependance on oil.

 

Nuclear is going to be a tough sell.

 

Secondly, and I can't stress this enough, you have to ask "at what cost" when you read/hear that anyone says there is enough oil. Cheap is oil is the key. Is there enough cheap oil? Doubtful.

Their supply is low and finding new supplies is getting harder and harder.

This reminds me of a social studies teacher I had back in high school. He was saying to us back then that what was going on is that the United States was capping its' oil reserves because that it was figured that the Middle East's oil would starting running out in about 40 or 50 years. Then the world would have to come to this country to get their oil. This was back in the mid '70's.

 

Let me add 1970's not 1870's.