On paper, this looks like it has the potential to be one of the best Sweet 16's we've ever seen. It seems as wide open as I can remember. If I had to rank them...

 

 

1. Shelby Valley (30-4) - Average 74 ppg and win by 22+ on average. Only one in-state loss (vs. Knott Central on 12/21). 1-0 vs. the field (55-52 over Elliott Co.).

 

2. Elliott County (30-2) - They average almost 86 ppg and they're winning by 26+ on average. 2-1 vs. the field. What scares me? On neutral courts they lost to Shelby Valley (52-55) and squeaked by Anderson Co. (76-72).

 

3. Holmes (32-2) - Last year's state runner-up, they allow 46 ppg and are winning by almost 14. They've avenged both of their losses. 1-0 vs. the field

 

4. Eastern (30-2) - Average 70 ppg, win by 16 per game. 1-0 vs. the field

 

5. Lexington Catholic (25-7) - Average 71 ppg, win by 9 per game. 1-2 vs. the field (all games on the road).

 

6. Corbin (29-3) - Average 74 ppg, win by 22+. 1-0 vs. the field

 

7. Christian County (21-6) - Average 76+ ppg and win by 11 per. Haven't played anyone in the Sweet 16.

 

8. Mason County (24-6) - Allowing under 49 ppg and win by 17 per game. 0-2 vs. the field (vs. Lex. Cath, @ Elliott Co.)

 

9. Anderson County (24-5) - Allowing under 49 ppg and win by almost 14 per game. 0-1 vs. the field (neutral court loss to Elliot Co., 72-76)

 

10. Bowling Green (26-6) - 63+ ppg. 1-0 vs. the field (Grayson Co.)

 

11. West Jessamine (26-8) - 67 ppg. 1-0 vs. the field (Lex. Cath.)

 

12. Adair County (26-7) - Allow just under 51 ppg. 1-0 vs. the field (Central)

 

13. Hazard (26-8) - Allow under 47 ppg and win by 14+ per game. 20-4 in 2009. 0-1 vs. the field (@ Holmes)

 

14. Central (16-14) - Lost their first 8 games. 16-6 in 2009. 0-2 vs. the field (Eastern, Adair Co.)

 

15. Grayson County (25-6) - Allowing under 50 ppg and win by 13 per game. 0-1 vs. the field (Bowling Green, 59-72)

 

16. Graves County (23-9) - Allow 50 ppg. No games vs. Sweet 16 participants.

I personally haven't witnessed a team in the state that could run and gun with Elliott County. Elliott County's entire offensive and defensive midsets are centered around their ability to run and wear teams down. A lot of teams come into games with the thought that they can run with Elliott and win but they can't as evidenced by the Ballard game. Elliott County's conditioning is IMHO by the far the best in the state. We have a motto in Elliott County: "Run to live! Live to run!"

 

Elliott County averages 85.8 points per game. The only team in the Sweet 16 that is within 10 points of that is Christian County at 76.6 (-9.2). Their average margin of 26.5 ppg is tops among the field as well.

 

Personally, I think Eastern, Elliott, Holmes and Shelby Valley are the top four teams. I wouldn't argue the order because a case can be made for all of them, as long as those 4 are your top 4.

 

That said, I think there a several other teams with a realistic chance to cut the nets down.

You all can talk about how the 9th region teams are slowing it down or whatever else. The fact is that Holmes is not playing good right now. I saw them play Scott Co. and they looked very impressive but they aren't playing as good now as they were then. Pittman was dominating in December and January but here lately hasn't done as much. Also as the beginning of the season Riley couldn't miss but he was no where to be found last night. Maybe Holmes can get it together but as of right now they would not be my favorite to win it all.

 

My top 5 in terms of chances to win it all would be Eastern(not because I think they are the best team but because of the draw), Elliott, Holmes(because of the experience and what they are capable of but they better turn it up), Mason Co, Shelby Valley.

South Charleston, Pickering, Southside, Cedar Hill, Ballard

 

And of the teams you mentioned, Cedar Hill is the only team that has the size and athleticism to play with Holmes. I've seen where several posters on here from South Carolina, who have lived there all their lives and grew up witnessing it, have said SC basketball was very weak and baseball and football were their two stengths.

 

I also would wouldn't say Ballard is more athletic than Holmes either...that was evident when they tried to run against Holmes and were held to just 41 points. BTW, Pittman sat out the WHOLE 1st half of that game as he picked up two fouls within the first 2 minutes.

 

I think when you see Holmes next Thurs you'll realize where a lot of us are coming from.

I think Adair could be anywhere in the 9-11 range ... I have them at 11. I don't think there is a great deal of difference from #3 or #4 to about #11 or so.

 

Personally, I think a lot of people are underestimating Central ... the Yellowjackets are 16-6 since they started using their football players.

 

:thumb:

 

I'm with you. Central started 0-8 in the month of December. Both they and Hazard, IMO, have played much better as the season progressed and the football players transitioned to hoops. I doubt either can cut the nets down, but they're capable of beating some good teams and making some noise if they play their best.

 

I think this tournament goes pretty deep with potential winners, especially considering how the brackets ended up. Most of the favorites are in the bottom half.

Cedar Hill is also ranked #4 NATIONALLY by MaxPreps where as Elliott is #546 and Holmes is #127.

 

If a team ranked #546 in the nation can come within 10 points of the #4 team in the nation. I would have to take my chances in an Elliott Co. vs. Holmes matchup and go with Elliott.

South Charleston, Pickering, Southside, Cedar Hill, Ballard

One big difference ... four of those teams come from areas where, frankly, there probably isn't a whole lot of coaching and defense going on. Heck, the farther south you go, the more they just kind of roll the balls on the floor and let them play.

 

Holmes has athleticism and the coaching to best utilize it.

You all can talk about how the 9th region teams are slowing it down or whatever else. The fact is that Holmes is not playing good right now. I saw them play Scott Co. and they looked very impressive but they aren't playing as good now as they were then. Pittman was dominating in December and January but here lately hasn't done as much. Also as the beginning of the season Riley couldn't miss but he was no where to be found last night. Maybe Holmes can get it together but as of right now they would not be my favorite to win it all.

 

My top 5 in terms of chances to win it all would be Eastern(not because I think they are the best team but because of the draw), Elliott, Holmes(because of the experience and what they are capable of but they better turn it up), Mason Co, Shelby Valley.

 

:lol:

 

Holmes isn't playing well but they've won 31 of their last 32. Not bad for a team who isn't playing well.

 

Teams have switched up their game plans and stategies against Holmes in February and now March which is why there's been so many low scoring games. This is still the same team that walked through their district less than two weeks ago by 21 points each game.

 

I disagree that Pittman hasn't done much lately. He averaged double digits throughout the region tourney and close to a double double. Holmes and their opponents are being more patient with their offense which is why you're not seeing Riley, Pittman, Rico, JJ, or any other Holmes player put up huge scoring numbers.

 

Teams aren't going to be able to go in to Rupp and play "their style" and be successful. It just won't happen. Teams are going to have to adapt to be successful as the teams are just too good at this point. Holmes has played every style imaginable over the past two weeks and came out unscathed.

 

Holy Cross played stall ball and got beat by 21.

Beechwood tried to run and got beat by 21 and held to 43 points.

Ryle tried to "out physical" Holmes and ended up being worn down by the 4th quarter because of their quickness which allowed Holmes to pull away.

Newcath tried to beat Holmes by slowing it down and with outside shooting and again, was worn down by 4th quarter which allowed Holmes to pull away.

Boone tried to win with tough defense and being patient on offense and again were beaten with THEIR gameplan.

 

Bottom line is this...only two teams have figured out how to beat Holmes this year and both times Holmes played in a rematch they won, which shows their ability to adapt. At this point in the season it's about doing the little things to advance...not style points that get you high rankings from computer polls.

1. Elliott Co.

2. Eastern

3. Holmes

4. Shelby Valley

5. Lex Cath

6. Mason Co

7. Anderson Co.

8. Christian Co.

9. Corbin

10. Adair Co

11. Bowling Green

12. Hazard

13. Central

14. West Jessamine

15. Grayson Co.

16. Graves Co.

Cedar Hill is also ranked #4 NATIONALLY by MaxPreps where as Elliott is #546 and Holmes is #127.

 

If a team ranked #546 in the nation can come within 10 points of the #4 team in the nation. I would have to take my chances in an Elliott Co. vs. Holmes matchup and go with Elliott.

 

You failed to mention that same Maxpreps poll has undefeated Oak Hill and Findlay Prep (widely regarded as the two best teams in the country) ranked numbers 6 and 7.

 

I wouldn't put too much stock in computer polls like the one from maxpreps that you're referring to. In the Maxpreps Xcellent 25 (computer and human input) Holmes is ranked I believe either #21 or #22 in the country and Cedar Hill in the teens somewhere. Rankings mean nothing at this point in the season.

I haven't seen all 16 teams play this season but out of the 6 I have seen here's how I would rank em:

 

Holmes

Shelby Valley

Elliott

Catholic

Mason

Anderson

I think that you all have Adair County much too low. The 5th Region was pretty good this year, and Adair overcame tough Bardstown and North Hardin teams to advance. They are peaking right now, they have one legitimate star (Ballou) and two guys that are on fire (Fudge, Helm). Their first round game is against Grayson County. Several of the top teams on this list were beaten or played extremely close by 5th Region teams. For instance, Shelby Valley narrowly beat Bardstown in the final of the All-A classic. Adair is a likely darkhorse in this tournament.

 

I agree Hearsay...Adair Co has a nice ball team...:thumb:

Chance to win it all based on the draw:

 

1. Eastern

2. Lexington Catholic

3. Holmes

4. Elliott County

5. Shelby Valley

6. Christian County

7. Adair County

8. Corbin

9. Central

10. Mason County

11. Bowling Green

12. Hazard

13. Anderson County

14. West Jessamine

15. Anderson County

16. Graves County

Chance to win it all based on the draw:

 

1. Eastern

2. Lexington Catholic

3. Holmes

4. Elliott County

5. Shelby Valley

6. Christian County

7. Adair County

8. Corbin

9. Central

10. Mason County

11. Bowling Green

12. Hazard

13. Anderson County

14. West Jessamine

15. Anderson County

16. Graves County

 

Just wondering but what makes you think Lexcath has a better chance to beat Holmes than Holmes does Lexcath? If LC wins in the first round and so does Holmes, they'd then meet in the second round.

Who beat Ballard? Was it Eastern? How far did Ballard get in their region?

I thought they were good, that's why I'm wondering.